March 06, 2007	Tuesday	Safar 16, 1428

ABU DHABI, March 5: Iran's outdated military presents little current threat to its neighbours, despite the fierce rhetoric from its hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, military analysts said on Monday at a security conference here in the Persian Gulf.

Iran has exaggerated its military capabilities, while US and Israeli leaders have engaged in ''provocative rhetoric'' that overstates the Iranian threat, said Anthony Cordesman of the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

In reality, Iran is more focused on national defence than using military power to boost its influence in the region, he said.

Cordesman, addressing military leaders from the US-allied Gulf Arab states, said Iran's disputed nuclear programme could someday pose a danger, but said any looming threat lies a decade or so away, leaving time for diplomacy.

Iran represents ''a force that has to be taken seriously in the defence of its country, but it has very little capacity to project outside the country,'' Cordesman said. ''Iran cannot seriously engage the US for any length of time. In an asymmetric capacity perhaps, but not in conventional warfare.''

Many US officials have, however, have worried exactly about such asymmetric capacity, such as Iran's ability to temporarily disrupt oil flows in the Gulf.

Cordesman told the Arab defence officials -- many of whom harbour deep suspicions of Iran's intentions in the region -- that Iran's army musters 1,600 mainly obsolete tanks and armoured vehicles, and its air force would be unable to keep its aging fleet of 260 warplanes in battle very long.

Iran's ballistic missiles employ 1960s technology that makes them only accurate enough to ''probably'' strike a large city, where their small warheads might only damage a few random buildings, Cordesman said.

Iran's most sophisticated weapons system is defensive: the Russian-made TOR-M1 air defence systems just purchased from Russia, he said.

Washington and its allies accuse Iran of secretly developing atomic weapons, but Tehran insists its programme is for peaceful purposes such as generating electricity.

Cordesman said Iran's primitive missiles make more sense delivering nuclear or biological weapons than conventional ones. The worst-case scenario would be a broad Iranian nuclear arsenal tied to missile systems, not just a few bombs kept as a deterrent, Cordesman said.—AP