March 04, 2007	Sunday	Safar 14, 1428

KARACHI, March 3: The dwindling phutti arrival from fields to the ginneries has almost dashed the hope of achieving officially fixed cotton production target of 12.5 million bales as the crop stood short by over 10 per cent at 12.239 million bales up to March 1, 2007.

The rapidly falling phutti arrivals have even compelled the Pakistan Cotton Ginners’ Association (PCGA) to release the figures on monthly basis instead of fortnightly as was being done up to December last.

According to reports reaching from cotton fields the recent rains along with strong winds damaged large number of cotton plants, which were ready for the last picking. However, the crop was short from the very start of the season and there was no such indication that it would meet the officially fixed target of 12.5 million bales.

As a result of short crop the industry will have to import fairly large quantity of around one million bales along with normal imports of long staple cotton of around 1.5 to 2 million bales used for blending to produce quality textile products.

The country produced around 12.239 million bales up to March 1, 2007, as against 12.386 million bales produced in the corresponding period last year. This shows that there is a shortfall of around 10.54 per cent in cotton production so far.

Despite the fact that phutti arrival from fields in Punjab continue to be higher by 1.75 per cent at 9.938 million bales over the same period last year but lesser output in Sindh by 9.34 per cent or 2.301 million bales has a dampening impact on the overall cotton production.

Cotton cultivation is a sensitive exercise as the crop needs constant vigilance and scouting to monitor pets attack and also requires full attention of growers, therefore, there is a growing tendency towards shifting to other crops like sugarcane, wheat or other crops as they do not need such a tiring exercise.

The cotton output in Sindh remained much below the target where phutti arrival is short up to 9.34 per cent at 2.301 million bales as against 2.539 million bales recorded in the same period last year. According to PCGA figures during last month 311,298 bales were recorded to have reached ginners for processing.

Higher off-take by mills left lesser stocks with ginners who are presently holding 1.205 million bales compared to 1.740 million bales recorded in the corresponding period last year.

The textile mills up to March 1, 2007 purchased around 10.927 million bales as against 10.495 million bales lifted by them in the same period last year. However, higher off-take by exporters is a big question mark as they have purchased around 106,886 bales against 70,900 bales lifted by them in the same period last year.

Though the textile industry is presently under severe crisis but the installed and operative spindles require around 14 to 15 million bales to keep their wheels running and meet the domestic as well as world market’s yarn demand.

There is strong indication that once the industry runs into deeper crisis and suffers from bank defaults the cotton consumption may decline, cotton analyst said.