Russia’s future course still uncertain
By David Ignatius
THINK of the new Russia as a highway: People used to drive on the left side of the road; now, officially, they are supposed to drive on the right, but the change has been uncomfortable (especially for the authorities). So the country straddles the middle -- which is understandable, but also dangerous.
That's a paradox of Vladimir Putin's Russia that I have encountered in nearly every conversation here this week. Russian officials insist they don't want to go back to communism, and why would they? Moscow glitters like a Christmas package, with more neon per square mile than any city I know. But behind Moscow's dazzling lights, the remnants of the old police state remain -- and many order-loving Russians seem glad of it.
The energy boom has helped Russians forget about the nagging problem of where they're heading politically. "There is a lack of clarity about our final destination," says one prominent Russian businessman. "Are we building China? The United States? Sweden? What is it? The situation now cannot continue. We are sitting between two chairs."
Russia is wary of full, American-style democracy, argues Konstantin Kosachyov, the chairman of the foreign affairs committee in the lower house of the Russian parliament. "To my mind, democracy is not a goal in itself, it is an instrument. It is the best instrument, but it should be used very cautiously. It's like the jackhammers that miners use. It increases productivity, but if you give this instrument to a child, it will destroy the child."
Kosachyov explains that Russians have bad memories of the wide-open democracy of the 1990s, and most Russians I spoke with confirmed that view. It was a crazy time, when people's savings were wiped out, gangsters battled in the streets, and the country was governed by what Russians saw as an alcoholic president and his thieving cronies. "Democracy came to us without us being ready to use it in a constructive way, and it destroyed us," says Kosachyov. "That's why Putin acts in a cautious way. He does not want to repeat the experience of the 1990s."
The Russian political puzzle now centres on the question of who will succeed Putin when his second term ends in 2008. The Russian president is very popular, and he would almost certainly be re-elected if he ran for a third term, but he insists he will abide by the new constitution's two-term limit. So who is the crown prince? Moscow was buzzing this week about whether Putin favoured First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev or Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov. Medvedev appeared to be the front-runner -- until Putin announced late Thursday that he was promoting Ivanov to equal status as first deputy prime minister, with new economic responsibilities.
The succession circus, in truth, reinforces the awkwardness of Russia's not-quite-democratic system. Analysts count the minutes allocated to Medvedev and Ivanov on state-controlled television. It's like Kremlin-watching in the old days, when observers tried to handicap power struggles by noting where officials stood on the podium during parades in Red Square. The reality is that power resides with Putin and his small inner circle of presidential assistants.
I had a chance to peek into Putin's inner circle this week when I met with his chief economic adviser, Igor Shuvalov. His office is a Soviet-era palace that once housed the head of the Communist Party, but Shuvalov is very much of the new era: He's just 40, speaks English fluently and is as sharply dressed as any London investment banker.
A key to Russia's future, argues Shuvalov, is Putin's decision to seek membership in the World Trade Organisation. He says some Kremlin advisers opposed WTO accession, but Putin decided it was the best way to guarantee Russia's continued economic modernisation. When I ask about corruption in the new Russia, Shuvalov doesn't deny the problem. "We need to be persistent and patient," he says. "If we are persistent, then slowly it will change."
High oil prices have encouraged a consumer boom, but they are a mixed blessing. The giant state-controlled gas and oil companies, Gazprom and Rosneft, overwhelm the rest of the economy and dominate Russian politics -- with several of Putin's closest advisers holding energy directorships. Energy politics and democratic politics don't mix easily.
"Don't give up on us. Treat us as a normal democratic country," says Mikhail Kasyanov, who was prime minister during Putin's first three years but is now a critic of the government. Certainly, Western pressure can help preserve democracy here. But in the end, it's the Russians who will have to decide which side of the road they're driving on.—Dawn/Washington Post Service


Bush regains his footing
By David S. Broder
IT may seem perverse to suggest that, at the very moment the House of Representatives is repudiating his policy in Iraq, President Bush is poised for a political comeback. But don't be astonished if that is the case.
Like President Bill Clinton after the Democrats lost control of Congress in 1994, Bush has gone through a period of wrenching adjustment to his reduced status. But just as Clinton did in the winter of 1995, Bush now shows signs of renewed energy and is regaining the initiative on several fronts. More important, he is demonstrating political smarts that even his critics have to acknowledge.
His reaction to the planned House vote opposing the increase he ordered in US troops deployed to Iraq illustrates the point. When Bush faced reporters on Wednesday morning, he knew that virtually all those in the Democratic majority would be joined by a significant minority of Republicans in voting today to decry the "surge" strategy.
He did three things to diminish the impact of that impending defeat. First, he argued that the House was at odds with the Senate, which had within the past month unanimously confirmed Gen. David H. Petraeus as the new commander in Iraq -- the man Bush said was the author of the surge strategy and the man who could make it work. Bush has made Petraeus his blocking back in this debate -- replacing Vice-President Cheney, whose credibility is much lower.
Second, he minimised the stakes in the House debate by endorsing the good motives of his critics, rejecting the notion that their actions would damage U.S. troops' morale or embolden the enemy -- all by way of saying that the House vote was no big deal.
And third, by contrasting today's vote on a nonbinding resolution with the pending vote on funding the war in Iraq, he shifted the battleground to a fight he is likely to win -- and put the Democrats on the defensive. Much of their own core constituency wants them to go beyond nonbinding resolutions and use the power of the purse to force Bush to reduce the American commitment in Iraq.
But congressional Democrats are leery of seeming to withhold resources from the 150,000 troops who will be fighting in that country once the surge is complete; that is why they blocked Republicans from offering resolutions of their own in the House or Senate pledging to keep financing the war. Democrats did not want an up-or-down vote on that question, but Bush has placed it squarely before them.
In other respects, too, Bush has been impressive in recent days.
He has been far more accessible -- and responsive -- to the media and public, holding any number of one-on-one interviews, both on and off the record, leading up to Wednesday's televised news conference. And he has been more candid in his responses than in the past.
While forcefully making his points, he has depersonalised the differences with his critics and opponents. He has not only vouched for the good intentions of congressional Democrats, he has visited them on their home ground, given them opportunities to question him face to face, and repeatedly outlined areas -- aside from Iraq -- where he says they could work together on legislation: immigration, energy, education, health care, the budget.
With the public eager for some bipartisan progress on all these fronts, Bush is signalling that he, at least, is ready to try.
At his news conference, he also stepped away from personal confrontation with the rulers in Iran, making it clear that he does not necessarily hold its political leadership responsible for shipping arms to the insurgent Shiites fighting in Iraq. He insisted the U.S. military would do whatever is necessary to halt the shipments and protect the troops, but he said repeatedly that these defensive measures are not a prelude to aggressive action against Iran.
All this is to the good. But Bush, unlike Clinton, is in the middle of a bloody civil war, which can be ended only by the Iraqis themselves. All he claims to be able to do is to provide some breathing space for them by attempting to reduce the violence. As he said, "What really matters is what happens on the ground. I can talk all day long, but what really matters to the American people is to see progress."
And whether the American people will see it, no one knows. —Dawn/Washington Post Service


