February 17, 2007	Saturday	Muharram 28, 1428

MOSCOW: A Russian government reshuffle signals the start of the race to succeed President Vladimir Putin in 12 months, but so far the contest resembles an internal palace struggle more than an open election battle, analysts say.

With a stroke of his pen, Putin promoted Sergei Ivanov from defence minister to first deputy premier – a position identical to that already held by Dmitry Medvedev – and in doing so breathed life into Russia’s often moribund political landscape.

“The race, whose prize is to become the replacement for Vladimir Putin, has only just begun in earnest,” the daily Gazeta wrote.

Although neither has declared his candidacy, Ivanov and Medvedev have long been rumoured favourites to contest for the Kremlin on March 2, 2008.

They are starkly contrasting characters: Ivanov the slick ex-KGB officer who as defence minister often appeared in military uniform and the more bookish Medvedev, who has almost schoolboy-like looks and manages a series of social development programmes. Now they will come into direct competition, a development that analysts said would favour Ivanov, who will be glad to escape responsibility for the morass of problems in the armed services.

“Now the unpleasant questions about maimed conscripts, sinking submarines and exploding rockets will have to be answered by the new civilian defence minister, Anatoly Serdyukov,” the daily Kommersant wrote.

“Sergei Ivanov will be able to fully concentrate on the creation a bright image of himself as the creator of an innovative Russian economy.” The paper said it was possible that Ivanov and Medvedev may form “two discrete blocs in the administration.” Medvedev’s will include the health and regional development ministries, while Ivanov will build his power base on the military-industrial bloc, including the energy ministry, the armed forces, and transport ministry.

“It seems likely that the fine-tuning of the cabinet has only begun and will increase in its scope,” the paper added.

Putin’s reshuffle will partly answer critics who had worried the Kremlin leader would simply name a preferred successor in the 2008 elections.

However, critics said that giving voters a choice of two preferred successors was just a variation on the Putin government’s long-held policy of “managed democracy.” —AFP