February 17, 2007	Saturday	Muharram 28, 1428

LONDON: Part of Tony Blair’s famous legacy is to leave the UK still united so that Gordon Brown does not inherit the nightmare of cross-border raids from an SNP-dominated executive seeking independence in Edinburgh. So his two-day visit to Scotland, which began in Glasgow on Thursday, will not be the last between now and the Scottish (plus Welsh and local) elections on May 3. The SNP's leader, Alex Salmond, welcomed him as "Boomerang Blair" whose Iraq-driven unpopularity would rebound on the Labour campaign.

As usual on his final campaign as leader, the PM does not blink. In an interview with Glasgow's Herald newspaper he called separation for countries the size of England and Scotland "regressive and old-fashioned" and promised to campaign on the positive case for the 300-year-old union. Labour's rivals claim it has been forced into a U-turn because its negative campaign so far has failed to reverse the SNP's 33 per cent to 31 per cent lead.

Labour says its twin strategy is intact. It accuses the Nats of making so many promises it amounts to “an £8bn betting slip” and warns voters the Lib Dems’ plan to replace council tax with local income tax will cost them money.

But Labour officials know that voters may not want Scottish passports but are disappointed. The best Labour can hope for on May 4 is to emerge with fewer than their current 50 MSPs, hoping that their Lib Dem coalition partners (now on 17 seats) are the main beneficiaries, not the SNP.

The stumbling block is Mr Salmond's promise of an early independence referendum. Ming Campbell, who wants to replicate an Edinburgh-style coalition with Labour in Westminster one day, is standing firm.

In a party speech in Aviemore today he will call Mr Salmond Scotland's Grand Old Duke of York -- attacking “London-dominated Labour” while keeping his own Commons seat just in case.

Labour will hope that May 3 will be Mr Salmond's “1992 Neil Kinnock moment”, the day when overblown expectations collapse.—Dawn/The Guardian News Service