February 12, 2007	Monday	Muharram 23, 1428

LONDON, Feb 11: Perhaps feeling threatened by what the Western governments and their media have successfully established as Iran’s imminent entry into the nuclear club and also perhaps prodded by the fear of the looming US offensive against Teheran, Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia are said to have gone on a shopping spree for conventional arms with as much as over $70 billion cash in hand.

Saudi Arabia alone is said to have a shopping list that runs to almost $50 billion, including fighter aircraft, cruise missiles, attack helicopters and more than 300 new tanks. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is said to have earmarked $8 billion for missiles and a rapid reaction brig, missile defence batteries, airborne early warning systems and aircraft.

Many of the deals are expected to be finalised at a massive arms fair due to open in UAE next Sunday. Other Arab countries, including Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar, are expected to spend heavily in the coming months.

One Middle East watcher said, more than the threat of a nuclear Iran the whole affair smacked of a rip off scheme by the Western arms dealers having an eye on the huge oil profits of the Arab oil producers.

He said the Western governments led by the US, were helping out by trying to pit Arab Middle East against Iran by drumming up the Sunni-Shia cleavage.

According to Sunday Telegraph Gulf leaders have watched with growing alarm as Iran's Shia theocracy has flexed its military muscles: filling the post-war power vacuum in Iraq, exerting influence in the Palestinian territories and Lebanon and refusing to back down over its nuclear programme. Many are now convinced that the only way to avoid being sucked into a war between the US and Iran, or being caught up in the turbulence that would follow, is to beef up their own defences.

Last week Iran carried out exercises in the Gulf, including test firing its new Russian defence missile system, and warned that any attempts to halt its nuclear programme would result in attacks on US interests around the world.

American plans for a possible attack on Iran's nuclear sites are reported to be well advanced, despite public denials, and many in the Gulf States fear that they could be caught in the backlash. One highly placed Saudi diplomatic source has been quoted as saying that there were concerns about America's intentions and doubts about the real threat from Iran.

"There are some people who are wary about Iran but the Americans are running a very successful public relations campaign against Teheran. A lot of Saudis fear that the US will come and make mischief then go away, but we have to live here afterwards."Some analysts argue that many Gulf States would prefer to be able to adopt a position of well-armed neutrality.

With oil prices pushing $60-a-barrel, the spending power of the Sunni states has been boosted, with the UAE government alone looking at a windfall of $100 billion if prices stay at present levels for the next two to three years. Up to 20 per cent of that extra revenue may be devoted to defence modernisation.

After the Gulf War in 1991, Saudi Arabia and a number of other states spent $10 billion. Now countries are again flocking to the arms bazaars and more than 900 exhibitors -- including British firms such as Remploy, Land Rover, Quinetiq, Rolls-Royce and BAE - will be competing for their business at the Idex 2007 exhibition in Abu Dhabi. Although much of the equipment is designed to counter an external military threat, many are spending heavily on homeland security.

"People are concerned that if there is a complete breakdown in Iraq it may wash over to them," said Marc Lee, the organiser of a conference on defence in the region which will be held the day before the arms fair. "They are acutely conscious of the instability threats on the other side of the Gulf and the threat from Iran."

At the last Idex exhibition, in 2005, $2 billion of deals were done in five days but this year is expected to break all records. Up to 45,000 delegates are expected and the UAE tourist ministry has hired two cruise liners to cope with demand for accommodation.