February 03, 2007	Saturday	Muharram 14, 1428

WASHINGTON, Feb 2: The US intelligence community warned on Friday the Iraq conflict had the hallmarks of a civil war that could get worse, with tough prospects for stabilising the country in the next 18 months.

The long-awaited National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) highlighted the bleak task facing US forces in Iraq, in the grip of rising sectarian violence that claimed another 73 lives in twin suicide bombings on Thursday.

The report came out shortly before the Pentagon confirmed an American military helicopter had crashed and burned on Friday north of Baghdad, apparently shot down. It was the third military chopper lost in the last two weeks.

The NIE, representing the thinking of 16 US intelligence agencies, fuelled a debate over the US role in Iraq intensified by President George W. Bush’s controversial plan to send in another 21,500 combat troops.The first intelligence estimate devoted solely to Iraq since July 2004 said it was urgent to reverse the trend of extremism and violence between majority Shiite Muslims and minority Sunnis.

Without progress in the next 12 to 18 months, the period covered by the forecast, “we assess that the overall security situation will continue to deteriorate at rates comparable to the latter part of 2006,” it said.

The NIE warned a quick withdrawal of US troops from Iraq would trigger “spiralling violence and political disarray,” with possible intervention by Iraq’s neighbours and increased attacks by Al Qaeda.

But at the same time, it took a pessimistic view of US efforts to press Iraqi forces to shoulder more security responsibilities as part of Bush’s plan to add to the 138,000 Americans already deployed.

“Despite real improvements, the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), particularly the Iraqi police, will be hard-pressed in the next 12-18 months to execute significantly increased security responsibilities, and particularly to operate independently against Shia militias with success,” it said.

The Bush administration has refused to characterise the Iraq conflict as a civil war with American troops caught in the crossfire. But the NIE appeared to contradict the White House position.

“The term ‘civil war’ accurately describes key elements of the Iraqi conflict, including the hardening of ethno-sectarian identities, a sea change in the character of the violence, ethno-sectarian mobilisation, and population displacements,” it said

The administration was quick to dispute the finding.

“I think that the words ‘civil war’ oversimplify a very complex situation in Iraq,” US Defence Secretary Robert Gates told reporters at the Pentagon. “I think it’s a bumper-sticker answer to what’s going on in Iraq.”

The latest intelligence estimate was published as the US military in Baghdad announced the deaths of six more American troops on Friday, bringing the overall US toll to 3,086 since the March 2003 invasion to topple Saddam Hussein.

At the same time, a US defence official confirmed a US Army AH-64 Apache helicopter crashed and caught fire north of Baghdad on Friday in what appeared to be “a shoot down.” The status of the helicopter’s two crew members was not known, said the official, who asked not to be named.

It was the third US military helicopter lost in two weeks. A private US security chopper also crashed in Baghdad on January 22.

Meanwhile, Iraqi authorities on Friday lifted a curfew that had been imposed on Najaf in a bid to thwart attacks a day after 73 people died in twin suicide bombings in nearby Hilla.

“The curfew has been completely lifted from Najaf and the surrounding towns, including Kufa,” Najaf police spokesman Ali Jariu told AFP.—AFP