Bush’s flawed threat perception
By Maqbool Ahmed Bhatty
THE 21st century began with President George W. Bush assuming the leadership of the US. In the decade following the end of the Cold War, the power elite in the US discovered both the challenges and opportunities arising out of this role. Madeleine Albright, secretary of state during President Bill Clinton’s second term, defined this role as that of the “indispensable power” without whose active involvement no major crisis could be resolved in the world nor any significant global initiative succeed.
The neo-conservatives, who were rightist Republicans began to plan for the New American Century and tended to perceive the ferment in the Muslim world as the successor threat to communism, with resurgent China as a potential ally. The theory of a clash of civilisations put forward by Samuel Huntington was really inspired by the need of the military-industrial complex to revive the arms race as most major countries proceeded to reduce their defence budgets. Persisting political injustice in many parts of the Muslim world (Palestine, Kashmir, Chechnya) and of economic inequality fuelled tensions, and the resort to state terrorism by Israel, India and Russia, forced a resort to suicidal terrorism as the international system failed to address these problems seriously.
President Bush started out with a unilateralist approach and repudiated major accords his predecessor had entered, such as the Kyoto Protocol, and the establishment of an International Criminal Court to outlaw war crimes. He also launched his plan for Ballistic Missile Defence, supposedly to counter rogue states but really to achieve total hegemony and to contain China’s rise. India, ruled by the Bharatiya Janata Party, supported the initiative immediately, while Pakistan voiced reservations, as did China.
The 9/11 terrorist attacks, that constituted the biggest ever military attack on the US mainland gave Bush the opportunity to declare a global war against terror, which was virtually made synonymous with that on the Muslim world.
Pakistan joined in this war and has played the most active role in apprehending the largest number of terrorists with President Musharraf recognised as a valuable ally. Not only has he survived assassination attempts but hundreds of Pakistani military men have been killed in anti-terrorist operations along the Pak-Afghan border. Pakistan has cooperated closely with President Hamid Karzai’s regime in Kabul and extended substantial assistance for reconstruction in Afghanistan despite resource constraints at home.
President Bush launched a pre-emptive attack on Iraq in March 2003 despite the objections of the majority of Security Council members. Not only did the intelligence about Iraqi military capabilities used to justify the war prove erroneous, the US has got bogged down in Iraq and is suffering high casualties. Public opinion even within the US has turned against the Bush policy in Iraq, and the Republicans lost control of the Congress in the mid-term elections held in November 2006.
President Bush had again sought to invoke the fear of terrorism, which had won him a second term in 2004. But the strength of the insurgency grew and even an increase in US troops in Baghdad did not stabilise the situation. US tactics added to sectarian tensions, and the number of Iraqi casualties grew steadily. At the start of the year 2007, President Bush was to announce his revised Iraq policy, after having studied the report of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group, and receiving a briefing from the higher echelons of the State Department and the defence department.
The president remains convinced that the western-dominated world he leads faces a long-term threat from the Muslim world in which Al Qaeda and other terrorist organisations have increased their influence after 9/11, and that winning a US-backed victory in Iraq is crucial. Though he is not totally averse to diplomacy as evident from Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice’s mission to the Middle East, with the aim of reviving the roadmap in Palestine, his basic reliance is on a “surge” in which the induction of 21,500 additional US troops in Iraq reflects persistence of the policy of achieving a total military victory. A reduction of casualties during 2007 is unlikely.
The flawed Huntington thesis of a clash of civilisations with the West versus Islam may become a reality if Mr Bush persists in treating the post 9/11 challenge as a zero sum game. Immediately after 9/11, as worldwide support was extended to the war on terror, there was also a call to address the deeper causes of terrorism. These were identified as follows:
i) Greater efforts by the world community to resolve political issues in which Muslims in particular felt their legitimate rights and grievances were being suppressed. These would include the Arab-Israeli dispute in particular.
ii) With the gap between rich and poor nations constantly widening to the point where poverty, disease and other problems were increasing misery in the developing world, the international system must also address economic concerns.
Unfortunately, the Bush approach has concentrated on high-profile and sophisticated military operations, while efforts to promote reconstruction and resolution of political and economic discontent have been neglected. The worsening of the insurgency and popular resistance both in Iraq and Afghanistan can be traced largely to the western lack of resolve to address the deeper causes of discontent that breeds terrorism if not addressed.
The Iraq Study Group’s report was essentially aimed at changing the emphasis from confrontation to conciliation. In Iraq, a universal view held by Sunnis and Shias alike is that the withdrawal of occupation forces would contribute to peace and stability. In Afghanistan also, barring a small number of warlords and their supporters, most people are worse off after five years of occupation by coalition forces. Many Afghan refugees who returned from Pakistan and Iran had to come back as there was neither shelter nor sustenance for them in their home country.
The Iraq Study Group had recommended that the US engage Syria and Iran to help promote peace and stability in the Middle East. Mr Bush insists on treating them as enemies. Most analysts agree that Baghdad did not have many terrorists before the US attack. It is now a centre of terrorist groups. In Somalia, the US has dubbed the Union of Islamic Courts which had established order in southern Somalia as Al Qaeda allies. Many may actually turn to terrorism now to resist US-backed Ethiopian troops.
As Taliban activity has grown in Afghanistan, senior US officials accuse Pakistan of providing sanctuary to Al Qaeda leaders. Anti-US feelings are already strong among the common people owing to Washington’s strategic alliance with Israel and India. More ill-considered steps could intensify the Pakistani people’s animosity towards the US.
Though Bush is bent upon achieving his anti-terrorism goals through total reliance on force, one hopes he will show sufficient realism not to precipitate a conflict of civilisational proportions with the entire Islamic world.
Avoiding such a conflict should be among the major concerns of his civil and military advisers. The newly elected Congress, reflecting the will of the American people, is not supportive of his strategy, and indeed world opinion is more concerned with other challenges facing mankind and remains opposed to actions that might precipitate a global conflict. Mr Ban Ki-moon needs to sound a note of caution to the US president while his newly nominated ambassador to the UN, Zalmay Khalilzad, a Muslim of Afghan origin, can also play a role.
The writer is a former ambassador.

