January 20, 2007	Saturday	Zilhaj 29, 1427

OTTAWA: Political parties are backing away from the idea of forcing an early Canadian election.

The change in political mood marks a sharp change from just a couple of months ago, when the received wisdom in Ottawa was the opposition would pull the plug on the minority Conservative government in the first half of 2007 and Canada would head into its third general election in three years.

The rationale behind waiting at least to the fall, if not until 2008, stems partly from the riskiness of moving without either the Conservatives or the Liberals holding a clear lead in the polls. There is also a reluctance to irritate voters by forcing another election without a good reason.

“I don’t want an election. I don’t think Canadians want an election. I worry about the turnout in this country. Each time we go in an election by surprise, it’s not helping Canadians go to the ballot box,” Liberal leader Stephane Dion told a news conference on Thursday.

“My preference is not to have an election in the coming weeks or months, but we’ll see,” said Dion, who was elected Liberal leader last month.

The Liberals were turfed in 2006 after more than 12 years in power, over the misuse of government advertising funds. They are still trying to rebuild their party base and finances, particularly in Quebec, where the scandal broke.

They are running neck and neck in the polls with the governing Conservatives, with neither party poised to win a majority and both at risk of an embarrassing setback if public opinion shifts just a few points.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the minority Conservatives can stay in power with the support of any of the three opposition parties -- the Liberals, the separatist Bloc Quebecois and the leftist New Democratic Party (NDP).

If an election were held today, the NDP would stand to lose seats and potentially the pivotal role is has enjoyed for more than two years of being able to prop up minority governments in return for concessions on issues like the environment.

An unlikely ally with the Conservatives, the NDP has nonetheless engaged in talks with the government aimed at toughening its approach to pollution and climate change.

The New Democrats have to be careful about looking like pushovers in the face of stiff competition on the environment from the Liberals and the upstart Green Party, which has no seats in Parliament but has rising support in the polls.

But they also have to be concerned about the potential for ending with a reduced caucus if they force an election now.

“They’re being squeezed by the Greens and the Grits (Liberals). I don’t see them in any hurry,” said a Conservative strategist.

One party that had wanted to bring the government down in the next month was the Bloc, which has strong poll numbers in Quebec, the only province where it fields candidates.

Last month it floated the idea of moving a confidence motion in mid-February but it would need the support of the Liberals to succeed, and they said they were not ready.

The Bloc is seen as hesitant to pull the plug later than that because of the strong possibility of a Quebec provincial election being called in March or April. The separatist forces do not want to have to run simultaneous campaigns at the provincial and federal levels.

Some strategists think Harper might want to engineer his own defeat while the Liberals are disorganised, but others say he plans to govern as long as possible to make it harder for the Liberals to again label the Conservatives as right-wing extremists.

However, despite the apparent backtracking on an early election, Harper will still need to win the support of at least one opposition party for his budget to pass.

If it fails, that would force an election, and parties are ordering electoral buses and arranging candidate training just in case.

Dion speculated about possible Liberal support for the budget -- something he had previously said was very unlikely -- but he said he had to be ready to head into a campaign soon.

“There are many scenarios where we may be in an election in the next two months -- or the next two years,” he said.

—Reuters