Power: lack of planning

NEPRA is only confirming what others have been saying for quite some time. Nevertheless, a government agency’s public assertion lends credence to claims that poor planning continues to dog the energy sector even as the power crisis threatens to spiral out of control. Given that the current energy shortage is largely the outcome of the government’s failure to act in time, it was expected that some lessons would have been learnt by those in charge of policy. Sadly, this does not seem to be the case, even though the approach now does differ in some respects from the complete apathy shown from 2000 until well into 2006. Then the authorities seemed to be oblivious to future needs; now they are panicking. As a former petroleum secretary put it recently, no major power project has been initiated over the last seven years. In fact, had it not been for the power policies of the nineties, the situation today would have been even more desperate. As things stand, the electricity shortfall is estimated at 1,000-2,000MW. This gap between demand and supply is likely to widen to at least 3,000MW next year and 5,300MW by 2010.

Clearly the time to act is now. However, the manner in which the prime minister and his team are choosing to tackle the problem is troubling the bigwigs at the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority. Tariffs are being raised, they say, without any justification other than that the country is facing a power crisis. At the same time, the water and power ministry is accused by Nepra of allowing higher tariffs to some projects while denying the same to others. Wapda’s decision to procure thermal power units from the US on a rental basis has also come under fire. According to Nepra, these decades-old plants are not only exorbitantly expensive but also inefficient because of their age. Openly questioning the government’s “planning capabilities”, Nepra complains that its own role is limited to endorsing decisions taken by the cabinet. Going by this document, it seems that the regulatory body has been reduced to little more than a rubber-stamp authority. These are grave accusations.

For their part, the president and the prime minister are given to putting a positive spin on the energy crunch, pointing out that the increase in consumption is a result of the rapid economic growth witnessed in recent years. This argument is not without merit. From the very outset, the government’s focus was on reviving the economy and to an extent it succeeded in doing so. While demand for energy may be rising for the right reasons, that does not in any way justify the government’s failure to plan ahead. It should have been a foregone conclusion that high industrial growth would raise demand for power, but this simple correlation seemed to escape the government. This lack of foresight means that stop-gap measures have become inevitable in the current scenario. Stop-gap, however, should not be confused with the frenetic and the slap-dash. If anything, an emergency situation demands even greater orderliness of thought and action. Thermal plants are a necessity in the short run but their planning and implementation must be carefully done. At the same time, though immediate needs may be pressing to the point of being overwhelming, the future cannot be ignored altogether. Plans for exploiting the country’s vast coal and renewable energy resources must be put in motion forthwith.

Punjab street crime

STREET crime in the Punjab capital saw a new high in 2006, with some categories — purse and mobile phone snatching and mugging at gunpoint — registering a whopping 25 per cent increase over the previous year. The overall crime graph in the province registered an increase of 10 per cent, as ascertained from police records of first investigation reports (FIRs) lodged in the course of the year. Incidents of murder during robbery and rape topped the list of heinous crimes, and the overall law and order situation remained precarious as a result of easy availability of illegal weapons smuggled into Punjab from the Frontier’s tribal belt. It can be argued that the actual number of crimes committed was much higher, and may never be known because in many cases the police refuse to register cases when approached by aggrieved citizens. Meanwhile, the Punjab law enforcement agencies concentrated their energies on protecting VIPs and suppressing dissent. Public anger over high-handed government policies, however, found vent in the form of violent riots and arson in Lahore last February when unruly mobs went on a rampage to protest against the publication of sacrilegious cartoons by a Danish newspaper. It also found expression in the large-scale flouting of the ban on kite flying. Section 144 of the penal code, forbidding the assembly of more than four persons at any one point, remained in force in Lahore for much of the year, thwarting attempts by the opposition parties to hold public rallies. Politicians belonging to the opposition were harassed by the security and intelligence agencies; many were summarily detained and then released after police foiled attempts to hold public meetings across the province. Police high-handedness and corruption among officialdom remained the norm and redress of citizens’ complaints a distant prospect.

Police reforms, as mandated by the Police Order 2002, failed to take off because of bureaucratic wrangling and the lack of will on the part of the authorities concerned to implement them. Punjab by and large remained a hotbed of street crime throughout 2006; there is nothing to suggest that the situation will change for the better in 2007, given the authorities’ apathy towards the rising crime graph.

Poor healthcare for children

ALTHOUGH symposiums on child healthcare, like the one recently held in Karachi, are welcome, they do not always achieve the goal of prodding health officials to take action. Children in Pakistan, especially those living in rural areas, continue to be deprived of proper health facilities. This is borne out by UN statistics that paint a grim picture: the infant mortality rate at 80 per 1,000 live births is among the worst in the region, while the number of children who die before attaining the age of five is 101 in 1,000. Meanwhile, malnutrition and disease are responsible for 38 per cent of children, not yet five years, being underweight. Even the coverage of the Expanded Programme on Immunisation is far from satisfactory. Figures show that only 67 per cent of one-year-olds have received the necessary vaccinations. A closer statistical survey reveals that certain groups of children are more disadvantaged than others for reasons of gender and poverty.

Correcting these deficiencies will require more than awareness-raising actions. Many issues relating to child health are underscored by the UN’s Millennium Development Goals to which Pakistan is a signatory. But the progress the country has made towards meeting these goals by the 2015 deadline is negligible. In order to improve the healthcare system, the government needs to first identify the stumbling blocks and then to review its own performance in overcoming these. If it does so, it will find that one of the main factors that is keeping it from achieving positive results is skewed priorities which attach little importance to social issues such as health. This together with the lack of political will to implement health goals as identified by the international community is preventing it from providing proper healthcare to millions of children across the country.

This dream of Islamic renaissance

THE year 2007 marks the start of 400th death anniversary of Mughal Emperor Aurangzeb who died in March 1707. With his death began the decline of the Mughal Empire which came to an end in 1857. A year before, the other great Muslim Empire, that of the Ottomans, also came to the verge of extinction in the Crimean War (1856) but was saved by Great Britain and France which intervened on its side in their own interest against Tsarist Russia.

Thereafter the Ottomans lasted till the First World War when they ceased to exist. Turkey itself would have been dismembered and colonised if Mustafa Kamal Pasha, a modern secular leader and military genius, had not defeated the invading Allied forces in the Battle of Gallipoli. But he abolished the Khilafat itself as it had become degenerate and an impediment to change and progress in Islamic thought and politics.

The end of these two Muslim empires was a traumatic experience more beguiling for Muslims than the sack of Baghdad and the demise of the Abbasid Caliphate in 1258 CE at the hands of the Mongols.

The reason was that they were able to recover from the former but could not from the latter, which led to their enslavement for over 200 years.

Consequently, ever since the death of Aurangzeb, Muslims have been preoccupied with two questions: why had this happened and why had they failed to regain their lost power and prestige?

Since Muslims are still beset with poverty, illiteracy, disease, crime, violence and instability and are nowhere near a renaissance, it will be more appropriate to consider the second question first.

Starting with Shah Waliullah, (India, 1702-62) and Sheikh Abdul Wahab (Saudi Arabia, 1703-92) to Abul Alla Maudoodi of India and Hassan al Banna of Egypt (20th century), four categories of Muslim religious and non-religious ulemas, thinkers and political leaders have tried to analyse the causes and find the remedy to Muslims’ decline.

One, Salafis or traditionalists, led by Shah Waliullah, believe that since Muslims’ decline was the direct result of their apathy towards Islam, the answer lies in going back to its teachings, which, if accepted fully and applied honestly, will lead to peaceful and prosperous development of Muslims, (‘History of Muslim Philosophy’ by M.M.Sharif).

For this to happen, they first needed to repent (tauba), then become true Muslims like those of the days of Khulfa-i-Rashedeen.

However, the Salafis were wrong both in their analysis of the malaise and in the remedies they suggested because an overwhelming majority of Muslims of all sects never stopped being true and practising Muslims. They did not give up Islam even during the long period of enslavement when Christian missionaries used all possible means to convert them. As for tauba, Muslims have been repenting and praying for salvation most ardently in daily and congregational prayers for the past 400 years.

This meant going back to the true teachings of Islam. The problem is that there is no consensus among ulemas on it. They cannot even agree on the definition of a Muslim let alone a true Muslim (‘Jinnah to Zia’ by Justice Munir). They regard the era of the Khulfa-i-Rashedeen as the ideal but hide from the fact that Muslims began to fracture during that very period and have been multiplying into sects and states and fighting bloody wars with each other ever since.

Two, pan-Islamists, whose most famous protagonist was Jamaluddin Afghani (1838-97), believe that Muslims declined because of the disunity in their ranks. Hence, the answer lies in reuniting them and restoring the caliphate. But Afghani and all others who followed him were equally wrong and equally failed in their mission.

The simple reason is that the general human tendency, among religious and secular, is to divide after the death of the founder of an ideology/religion. For example, the Jews began to split after the death of Prophet Solomon, (AS).

Similarly, the Muslims began to polarise in 656 CE, merely 24 years after the death of the Prophet (PBUH), when Hazrat Usman (RA) was assassinated and the Battles of the Camel (657) and Siffin (661) took place among his companions.

Today there are 57 Islamic countries, 22 of them are Arabs, but even they cannot unite in a single state. The Arab Republic of Egypt and Syria could not last more than a few years and Pakistan broke up within 25 years of its birth.

Three, jihadis believe that the Muslims suffered a decline because of the machinations of others, especially the West, (the Crusades and then colonisation). Therefore, the answer lies in jihad against the infidels. Shah Ismail Shaheed of India, a nephew of Shah Waliullah, was the pioneer of this school. He waged jihad against the Sikhs in 1770s but was defeated and martyred by them. Today’s jihadis, led by Osama bin Laden and his followers, are trying to accomplish the more difficult task of defeating the West led by the US.

They think that since Mujahideen had defeated one superpower in Afghanistan, they can defeat the other as well. The Taliban rule over Afghanistan (1996-2001) provided Osama and Al Qaeda a safe haven to organise, train and plan their attacks on the US on September 11, 2001.

That senseless attack did little damage to the US but provided Bush and the neo-cons an excuse to inflict untold death, destruction and suffering on the Muslims in Afghanistan and Iraq and rekindle the West’s hatred and fear of Islam.

Four, the reformers consist of enlightened intellectuals like Allama Iqbal, Maulana Sulaiman Naumani (India), Muhammad Abduh and Muhammad Rida (Egypt). The most inspiring and influential of them was Iqbal. He rightly diagnosed that the cause of Muslim decline and persisting stagnation lay in their attachment to the past and shunning of the new, as if time had stood frozen since the death of the Prophet (PBUH).

Hence Iqbal strongly criticised the mullahs and advocated new thinking and adoption of modern education. He wrote, “Gala tau ghont dia ahle madrassah ne tera: Kahan say aaey sada Lailaha illallah”; “Haqeeqat kharaabat mein kho gaee: Ummat rawayaat mein kho gaee”; “Ilm kay hath mein khalee hai neeam ay saqi”; “karen gay ahle-nazar taza bastian aabad”; and so on.

He also introduced the concept of ‘khudi’ as a panacea for the ills that had befallen the Muslims. But this concept was too difficult to be translated into action individually or collectively. He wrote, “Khudi ka sirre nihan lailaha illallah; Khudi hai tegh fishan lailaha illallah” — which sounded very good but failed to reunite the Muslims and regenerate their decadent sprit.

Occasionally Iqbal complained to Allah for the pathetic condition of Muslims, “Ab wo altaf nahee hum pay anayaat nahee: Baat eh kiaa hai key pahlee see madaraat nahee?” “Rahmatain hain teree aghyar kai kashaano par: Barq girtee hai tau becharey Musalmano par’.

At the same time, Iqbal severely criticised the West for becoming too materialistic, which created an antipathy among the Muslims not only for the West but for modernism.

As a result of his oscillation between the new and the old in his poetry, Iqbal’s real message, contained in his book ‘Reconstruction of Religious Thought in Islam’, got lost.

His powerful poetry inspired the Indian Muslims to create a state of their own but could not break the hold of mullah on their minds or of others.

In this firmament the only bright star who got it right and prescribed the right recipe for an Islamic renaissance was Sir Syed Ahmad Khan. He realised that Muslims had declined because they had forsaken reason, logic and learning.

He realised that while the West was opening new universities, discovering new lands and unravelling the secrets of nature, Muslims were opening new madressahs and learning more of the same.

The Ottomans who ruled over one third of Europe had paid no attention to the discovery of Americas by the Europeans. The British came to the court of Mughal Emperor Jehangir but he showed no interest in finding out how they had travelled across the seven seas. Neither of the two empires built any university or encouraged the learning of science and other modern disciplines.

Sir Syed Ahmad Khan felt convinced that without modern secular education Muslims would not be able to compete with the West and win independence. He therefore established the Aligarh Muslim College, which became a model for others and led the Muslims of India to produce leaders like Jinnah and Iqbal.

Today, if the Muslims of South Asia have a few thousand scientists, intellectuals, writers and philosophers who can stand shoulder to shoulder with their western contemporaries, it is mostly because of Sir Syed.

It is ironical that the orthodoxy which dreams of an Islamic renaissance most acutely is the biggest impediment to it.

The writer is a former ambassador.
manalam@hotmail.com