December 25, 2006	Monday	Zilhaj 03, 1427

PAKISTAN has informed the IMF that presidential and assembly elections are scheduled to be held in October 2007. Perhaps, for a better part of the next year, politics will be in the driving seat unlike the past seven years, in which , but for brief spells, economics has dominated domestic politics. The situation is likely to be reversed in 2007.

The global economic downturn during the decade of 1990s to which. Pakistan was no exception, helped shape the political landscape in recent years. Next year, the economic policies and performance will come under voters’ scrutiny after eight year’s of President Musharraf’s rule and five year’s of quasi-democratic set-up.

And the market democracy, now being practiced under the label of “sustainable democracy,” will be put to its first critical test- not because the political parties are any stronger but because of the poverty generated by government’s failure to provide enough jobs and check soaring food prices. Apart from its achievements in the economic field, the government would also be carrying the baggage of eight years’ rule when it calls for national polls. The quasi- military rule has radicalised public opinion and the quasi- unitary system, it imposed, has made voices for democratic federalism much louder and their echoes have much wider reach.

With Musharraf at the helm, liberalisation and de-regulation has given the people an opportunity and the freedom to reconstruct the economy but the corresponding political changes have been slower to come. The Constitutional writ, vital for creating an enabling environment for enforcing commercial contracts and establishing the rule of law, are yet to be embedded in market democracy. But there is hope. The national and provincial assemblies would complete their full term as mandated by the electorate and it would be a major step towards consolidation of constitutional rule. Besides, secularism , an ingredient of democracy,is now gaining grounds in the corridors of power.

While the incumbent military-led government faces a whole range of political and economic problems in a difficult and fast changing world, the populist sentiment revolves round three over-arching issues. The people want a voice- a democratic choice exercised in national, provincial and district elections. They want an end to poverty. And the provinces want to graduate to their rightful status of a federating unit. These national, democratic and egalitarian aspirations cannot be wished away over time. As market gains supremacy, it generates pluralism and self-determination. Business concerns are now more autonomous than ever before and they take informed decisions by timely data made available by the government in many areas. But even regulatory bodies which arbitrate between business and consumers, have been denied autonomy.

In the context of representative democracy, the key issue in general elections would be that of the military uniform on which the market democracy is anchored for want of an “inclusive” economic model that could work as a substitute for the collapsed welfare state.. The distributive justice is not on the agenda of the policymakers. And the common citizen is learning to fend for himself. A heavy price is being paid for keeping the tribal belt deprived and under-developed.

The good news is that the situation is fast maturing for sustainable constitutional rule, though it may not embody all democratic norms. The intervention of the extra-constitutional forces in 1999 has been of a different kind from the previous military rule because of changed political environment. No Martial Law was imposed, political parties were not banned and military –civilian partnership came from the promised elections in three years. It was US military action to remove the Taliban regime in Kabul that gave a fresh lease of life to the general’s domination in politics.

But external influences are now working to get politics back on the rails by fair and free elections in which the expectation is that secular and market-friendly mainstream political parties would thrash the religious right and check the growing Talibanisation of the country’s grass root politics, also being reinforced by the tenacious informal soldier battling professional NATO forces in Afghanistan.

Also, there is a consensus among the major political players on economic reforms, though the present government has pursued the liberalisation agenda more vigorously than the two preceding civilian prime ministers .The Musharraf government was spurred into doing so, because of the difficult economic situation that the country had then landed into. A European Union delegation has been assured by President Musharraf that elections will be held under an interim government. EU observers will be there to monitor the polls.

Unlike the 2002 elections, manipulation in elections may not be so easy. A divided ruling party will be going to the polls with not so good record of service to the common man and perhaps, also an establishment divided on major political issues. Despite being weak and also divided, the opposition political parties are more focused on specific issues like independent election commission, interim government for holding polls and independent judiciary..

No doubt, the government has enlarged developing spending but the implementation of social sector and human resource development programme is weak and much of the talk on these issues is in the rhetoric stage. The poor have no lobby .

President Musharraf has said that the 2007 polls would be the” mother of all elections”. In the absence of any elaboration of this statement, it is difficult to fathom his thoughts. It may perhaps turn out a turning point – the extra constitutional forces may be induced to work within constitutional framework- or more specifically to have a say, within the National Security Council. The holding of the dual office of the President of Pakistan and the chief of army staff by Musharraf, approved by the Parliament may turn out to be a beginning in this direction.

But there is no escape from democracy, because despite its weaknesses, it provides the best form of governance and accountability. The social , economic and political gap between the ordinary people and the ruling elite is widening which can only be reduced by a representative form of government reinforced by participatory democracy /district governments. For this to happen, elections should not only be free and fair but its results should be strictly honoured by all. In market democracy, there is scant respect for the verdict or mandate given by the electorate — whether it be the tenure of assemblies or programme and policies approved by the voters.