BERLIN: The German government has been working overtime to play down expectations for its looming EU presidency and it is not difficult to understand why.
In addition to a host of thorny international issues Germany will be confronted with when it takes the EU chair from Finland on Jan 1, Berlin faces the monumental task of shaking Europe out of the torpor that set in last year when French and Dutch voters rejected a new EU constitution.
Chancellor Angela Merkel has vowed to revive that treaty-- a huge challenge in a bloc where scepticism about the European project is on the rise half a century after it was launched in response to the devastation of World War Two.
Complicating the task for Berlin during its six-month presidency will be the sheer size of the EU, which will expand to 27 member states when Romania and Bulgaria join next month.
Forging consensus on the constitution, as well as other sensitive issues on the German agenda including EU energy strategy and relations with Russia, will be all the more difficult with this unwieldy group.
“We know the expectations are very high,” German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said in Brussels this week.
Designed to streamline decision-making in the enlarged EU, a constitution is seen by many in Europe as crucial to ensuring the smooth functioning of the EU.
But Germany must balance the interests of the 18 nations that ratified the existing treaty against those of the French, the Dutch and also sceptics like Britain, the Czech Republic and Poland.
It has an extremely tight window. At a June summit in Brussels, just one month after France elects a new president, Germany aims to lay out a timetable and rough outline of what a new constitution could look like.
The hope in Berlin is that the EU can end the ratification process -- all members must approve the charter for it to take effect -- before European parliamentary elections in 2009.
Germany has vowed to keep the substance of the existing treaty, but a more likely outcome may be the “mini-treaty” advocated by French presidential contender Nicolas Sarkozy.
“A mini-treaty would look like a defeat for the Germans, but as long as you don’t call it that it could work,” said Katinka Barysch of the Centre for European Reform in London.
The constitution is one of a series of sensitive issues Germany will be tackling in the first half of 2007.
It has ambitions to kick-start the long-dormant Middle East peace process as part of the “quartet” of mediators -- a grouping of the EU, Russia, United Nations and United States.
But Germany’s controversial efforts to engage Syria in this effort have failed, and continued unrest in Lebanon and violence between Israel and Palestinians have cast a cloud over plans for the troubled region.
Forging a comprehensive new EU cooperation agreement with Russia, another of Germany’s key tasks as president, appears to be slipping down the priority list.
The launch of talks has been blocked by Poland, which wants Russia to end its ban on Polish meat imports.
And after talking openly for much of 2006 about an ambitious new “Ostpolitik” which would bind Russia closely to the EU, Germany’s eagerness to negotiate with Moscow has faded as concerns mount about the murders of a Russian journalist and former KGB agent.
“It simply isn’t a priority anymore,” said Alexander Rahr of the German Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin. “The government is quietly distancing itself from a new Ostpolitik.”
Instead, Germany may focus more intensely on energy policy and climate change. The European Commission is expected to present proposals for an EU energy action plan in January and Germany will lead discussions on the issue with a view to agreeing a final plan at a March summit in Brussels.
Complicating this debate will be Europe’s heavy reliance on Russian energy and splits within Merkel’s ruling coalition on the use of nuclear power.
Germany’s diplomatic minefield will not end there. In early 2007, it may face the tough task of forging consensus on the sensitive issue of Kosovo’s independence from Serbia -- an aspiration supported by most EU members but opposed by Russia.
Other issues likely to force their way onto the German agenda include Iran’s nuclear ambitions and Turkey’s faltering bid to join the EU. As German officials have noted in recent weeks, unexpected crises could also arise.
Finland and Austria, which held the six-month EU chairs in 2006, spent a good part of their presidencies dealing with the Lebanon war and a natural gas row between Russia and Ukraine.
“We know what we can plan for, but we also know we could end up spending most of our time dealing with the unexpected,” Steinmeier said this week.
