RAMALLAH: Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’s call for elections could rebound on Fatah as the faction had done little to improve its standing and unite its ranks after Hamas beat it in January, analysts and officials said.
Despite a drop in popularity of Hamas in recent polls as a result of a significant rise in dissatisfaction with the performance of the Hamas government, Abbas’s fragmented Fatah risks losing the presidency and parliament to Hamas in proposed early elections without serious reforms, the sources said.Recent polls have indicated the long dominant Fatah, which has been locked in a bitter power struggle with the Hamas government, would win elections if they were held today.
But leading pollster Khalil Shikaki said Abbas was taking a big gamble.
“It is very risky. Fatah is divided and could give us the same results as the previous election,” Shikaki said.
“Without resolving internal problems such as allegations of corruption and if the peace process is not advanced, Fatah will lose the presidency and parliament to Hamas.”
A poll by Shikaki’s Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research, conducted on Dec 14-16, showed Fatah winning 42 per cent of a parliamentary vote and the Islamist militant movement 36 per cent.
Abbas surprised Hamas and sent shockwaves through the Palestinian community on Saturday by calling for new elections in a bid to break a political deadlock and end Western sanctions imposed on Hamas after it refused to recognise Israel and renounce violence.
Fighting erupted in Gaza after Abbas’s announcement. A truce agreed late on Sunday has already come under strain.
Fatah officials were divided over whether they were prepared for elections, which the Hamas movement has said it would boycott. Officials expect the vote to be held within six months.
Fatah has been plagued with deep divisions between the dominant old guard and a younger generation seeking a role in the decision-making process.
Those splits, in addition to allegations of corruption amongst senior Fatah officials, contributed to Fatah’s loss to Hamas in January parliamentary elections.
Fatah has practically been leaderless since the death of Yasser Arafat in 2004. Abbas was named Fatah’s overall leader only last month, and attempts to unite and carry out internal reforms have just began to take place.
The movement seeks a negotiated two-state solution to end conflict with Israel.
Fatah lawmaker and young leader Marwan Barghouthi, jailed in Israel for life since 2002, enjoys widespread popularity and could have a big chance of leading Fatah to victory, Fatah officials and analysts said.
There is no law to prevent Palestinians in jail running for office. Barghouthi, 47, is serving five life terms for ordering deadly attacks during a Palestinian uprising. He denies the charges.
Abbas has repeatedly said he would not run for another term, but some Fatah officials said they had no better alternative.
Speaking at a news conference with British Prime Minister Tony Blair on Monday, Abbas gave the vaguest of hints that he might seek re-election but declined to elaborate when pressed.
On Saturday, after his call for elections, Abbas approved the formation of a local Fatah leadership from the younger generation that would reform the movement.
“We will go to the elections this time united and strong,” Fatah’s strongman in Gaza, Mohammad Dahlan, said.
A leading Fatah official in the occupied West Bank, Jibril al-Rajoub, said Fatah would work hard to convince Palestinians it had changed, made reforms.
“Fatah needs to immediately work on reforming, and if the local leadership is headed by serious people, Fatah would definitely reunite and win the elections,” Rajoub said.
Fatah official Mohammad Hourani, a member of the young guard, disagreed.
“The time remaining is not sufficient to make the necessary reforms. Our slogan in this election should be that we represent pragmatism and lead to openness to the world,” he said.
Hourani and other Fatah officials said that historically Fatah united and acted as a tribe despite its divisions when confronted with an external threat.
“We will move instinctively as one tribe to confront the threat from Hamas, this is a fight for survival, therefore, no matter what our differences are, we will be one,” a Fatah gunman disillusioned with Fatah’s leadership said.—Reuters
