TEHRAN: Iranian voters have delivered a warning to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in a tandem election that has shaken up the political scene ahead of legislative polls in two years, analysts said on Sunday.
Allies of Mr Ahmadinejad, who was elected president one year ago on a wave of popular support, failed to score hoped-for victories in elections for local councils or the powerful clerical body, the Assembly of Experts.
“The voters have shown a red warning light to President Ahmadinejad,” said conservative analyst Amir Mohebian.
“It is a very clear message for Mr Ahmadinejad. The populism of the government is losing ground,” said Mohammad Atrianfar, a reformist who founded the now-banned moderate Shargh newspaper.
While the votes are too complex to be seen as referendum on Mr Ahmadinejad's personal popularity, the results so far show the government has not won unequivocal support at a time of high unemployment and continued inflation.
The ayatollah seen as Mr Ahmadinejad’s spiritual mentor, Mohammad Mesbah Taghi Yazdi, was trailing behind centrist cleric Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani in the Assembly of Experts polls.
Meanwhile, initial results showed that municipal councils in major cities like Tehran and Isfahan would be shared between ultra-conservatives loyal to Mr Ahmadinejad, reformists and more moderate conservatives.
“The main lesson from this double vote is the failure of the friends of Ahmadinejad and success of the more moderate conservatives,” Atrianfar said.
“The fact that Mr Rafsanjani obtained around twice as many votes as Mesbah Yazdi is a very clear political message.” The results show voters have learned the lessons of the past and have concluded that we need to return to balance on the political scene and support moderate figures,” said the Kargozaran newspaper.
Analysts said one of the most striking aspects of the election was the split of the `conservative’ forces between hardliners loyal to Ahmadinejad and more moderate forces.
This division was epitomised by the candidacy of Mesbah Yazdi for an Assembly of Experts place on a list that notably did not include the names of Mr Rafsanjani or any of his allies.
Allies of the powerful Rafsanjani, who has flirted with both conservative and moderate tendencies in recent years, joined forces with reformists to fight for Tehran city council on a joint moderate ticket.
“The elections have shown that voters still have faith in the conservative camp, which includes moderate conservatives and the supporters of Mr Ahmadinejad,” Mr Mohebian said.
“But they have to put aside their differences to prepare for the next parliamentary elections in 2008. Otherwise, the atmosphere will be more favourable for the reformists.” The elections for Iran’s conservative-dominated Majlis (parliament) in two years will be a far more straightforward test of the government’s popularity and will lay a marker for the next presidential elections in 2009.
For Atrianfar, Rafsanjani `won his success (on the Assembly of Experts) thanks to the support of reformers. He will reinforce his relations with them. “The reformers have managed to make a minor breakthrough. The moral of the tale is that they have to maintain their unity for the next legislative elections,” he added.
On Tehran city council, the conservatives were further divided between ultras loyal to Mr Ahmadinejad and allies of current technocratic Tehran mayor Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf.
While Qalibaf, an ex-police chief and qualified civilian airline pilot, is usually seen as a conservative, he has also been happy to welcome reformist figures into key posts.—AFP
