THE European Union’s decision to partially freeze membership talks with Turkey is a tough blow to Ankara’s 40-year old bid to join the Union. But it is only the first of many hurdles Ankara faces in a long and difficult campaign to become a member of the 25-nation bloc.

The current hitch in EU-Turkey relations hinges on Turkey’s refusal to recognise the Republic of Cyprus which entered the EU as a divided island in 2004. The EU is especially adamant that Ankara’s ban on Greek Cypriot traffic contravenes its customs union pact with the Union.

However, even if Cyprus is reunited one day, the long-haul effort required to admit Turkey into the Union will remain a major strategic challenge for both sides for some time to come.

The EU remains concerned about Turkey’s human rights record, pace of democratic reforms, religious freedoms and the status of women. European governments have also complained about the predominant role of the military in Turkish politics.

Especially, Europeans will have to overcome their fear of allowing a mainly Muslim nation to enter their club.

Turkey’s chances therefore of realising a long-held dream by joining the EU will remain fragile and subject to changing European domestic concerns. The years ahead-- negotiations with Turkey could last up to 15 years-- will be a difficult test for both sides.

For the moment, however, EU diplomats insist that despite Turkish outrage over the partial suspension, the bloc has not sent a too-negative message to Ankara.

Several EU states-- including Cyprus, Greece, France, Austria and the Netherlands-- wanted a much tougher EU response to Turkey’s non-compliance with the rules.

Instead, Finnish Foreign Minister Erkki Tuomioja managed to hammer out a better-than-expected deal which combines both carrots and sticks.

While talks are on hold in areas such as trade, transport, external relations and agriculture, EU diplomats underline that Cyprus has agreed not to veto the start of negotiations in other key chapters including culture, industry and economic policy.

In another key concession to Ankara, the EU has vowed to implement a so-far unfulfilled pledge to open direct aid and trade contacts with the northern Turkish part of Cyprus, which is not recognised internationally.

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier told reporters that contrary to its past stance, Nicosia had agreed to stop blocking EU plans for such direct links with northern Cyprus.

In another move to reassure Turkey, Finland, as the current EU presidency, issued a separate statement of support for United Nations efforts to find a comprehensive solution for the reunification of Cyprus.

Most crucially, the EU did not set any deadlines or ultimatums for Turkey to open its ports and airports to Greek Cypriot traffic. Ministers also insisted that no EU country had questioned Ankara’s right to join the bloc once it met entry criteria.

“Europe needs a stable and democratic Turkey,” said EU enlargement chief Olli Rehn. Turkey’s EU accession talks were also a demonstration that Islam could be compatible with Europe and its values of democracy and human rights, he said.

“There is every prospect that things will work steadily and effectively to make Turkey, in the fullness of time, a member of the European Union,” said British Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett in Brussels.

Britain, Spain, Sweden and Italy as well as EU newcomers Poland and Estonia have long backed Turkish membership. Analysts warn, however, that Europe must now follow up the soothing words with real action.

That may be difficult. Austrian Chancellor Wolfgang Schuessel said on Tuesday he did not expect Turkey to accede to the EU. “We believe that there will be a result different from full membership,” said Schuessel.

Significantly also the implementation of many of the

EU promises depend on Cypriot goodwill. Cypriot Foreign Minister Yiorgos Lillikas has

already hinted, however,

that he may still veto progress in the negotiations.

“We cannot close our eyes to the behaviour of Turkey” in other areas than the ports issue, said Lillikas, referring to Ankara’s stance against Cypriot membership of the Oganisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and opposition to Cypriot participation in strategic EU-Nato discussions.

In the end, however, its ordinary Europeans who will have the final say on Turkey.

France has already vowed to hold a public referendum on Turkish membership. Since EU decisions on enlargement require unanimity, Ankara’s membership of the Union could be blocked by a few hundred anxious French voters.