BEIRUT: A political crisis in Lebanon could again plunge the country into civil war, mirroring the sectarian divide in Iraq.
Lebanese leaders are split on political issues. But sectarianism has crept into the debate and on to the streets, where tension rose further this week after the assassination of a Christian cabinet minister.
Most pessimists forecast a new civil war in a country still trying to rebuild its civil infrastructure destroyed by Israel’s war with Hezbollah guerillas. Many Beirut residents say they are expecting street skirmishes at the very least.
Dominant on one side of the chasm is Saad al-Hariri, backed by the United States, France and Saudi Arabia. He inherited his assassinated father's mantle as Lebanon's strongest Sunni leader and his allies control government.
On the other are the opposition led by Hezbollah and Amal, supported by Syria and Iran. They command the loyalty of the vast majority of the country's Shias.
They have been at loggerheads over issues including how much say the opposition should have in government.
“We are too close to an Iraqi scenario. Sunni and Shia can easily find a way to a conflict, to fight each other. I don't know how or when, but I feel it coming,” columnist Sateh Noureddine told Reuters.
Noureddine has been warning of an impending Sunni-Shia clash for several weeks in As-Safir newspaper, one of Lebanon's most widely read dailies.
“Unfortunately there is a state of denial, trying to avoid any discussion. But it is here, it exists and it represents a real danger for stability,” he said.
Shias went on to the streets on Thursday, chanting slogans against the government in response to what they said were insults hurled against Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah at the funeral of Pierre Gemayel, the Christian minister killed on Tuesday.
Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war started as a conflict between Christians and Muslims. This time Christian leaders are split between the camps, blurring the picture.
The Sunni-Shia split is much more clearer. Together, the sects make up 60 per cent of the population, according to a recent survey. The immediate focus of concern is that peaceful protests pledged by Hezbollah to demand a change in government could spark a clash. Hezbollah and Amal this month quit cabinet after the collapse of talks on expanding the say of the opposition.
“There are fears on the ground that the street might beat the politicians in moving to a clash,” analyst Rafik Nasrallah told Reuters.
The Hezbollah leader has accused his opponents of seeking to turn a political split into a sectarian divide by whipping up fears that the Shias plan to challenge Sunni power in Lebanon.
“There is an attempt to present the political conflict, or struggle, or crisis in Lebanon as if it is between the Shias and Sunnis and this is totally untrue,” he said last week.
“One side sees itself in a position where, if it wants to defend itself, then it only has one option”, he said. “That it shields itself today in Lebanon behind the noble Sunni sect.”
Hariri said last week he could “certainly” feel Sunni-Shia tension in the street.
Part of the reason is a belief that Hezbollah and Amal want to derail an international tribunal to try suspects in the assassination of Rafik al-Hariri, Saad's father.
They think Syria's allies in Lebanon want to protect Damascus, which they blame for the killing. Syria denies involvement.
Hariri said that the tension could be relieved if “everyone” was convinced of the need for the tribunal.
Meanwhile, Nasrallah has turned up criticism of the government over the sensitive issue of its handling of this year's war between Hezbollah and Israel.—Reuters
