Mistrust torpedoed breakthrough: Hu’s visit to India
By Antoaneta Bezlova
BEIJING: Though formally recognising that there is "enough space" for China and India to grow together, the leaders of the world's two most populous nations failed in charting a common trajectory for their rapidly expanding economies.
Deep-rooted mutual suspicions and old anxieties bedevilled Chinese President Hu Jintao's trust building visit to India this week. The sizable number of agreements signed during the four-day trip did not obscure the fact that little progress was made on the festering border dispute, or on the bilateral free trade deal advocated by Beijing.
In Beijing, media coverage of the visit-- the first in a decade by a Chinese head of state, was far more restrained than the elated tone dominating reports three years ago when an Indian prime minister travelled to China for the first time in more than ten years.
No "breakthrough" agreements were announced this time, while commentators tellingly pondered the pitfalls that could derail the China-India relationship.
"Historical mistrust is one thing," said Zhou Qingan, an international relations scholar at Tsinghua University, "but there are also trade imbalances and security concerns that could easily prevent bilateral ties from achieving their potential".
Back only in 1998 India cited the China threat as justification for nuclear missile tests that it conducted that year. Since then though, the two sides have witnessed softening of relations, due mostly to the steady growth in economic ties. In 2005 bilateral trade reached $18.7 billion, up 37.5 per cent from the previous year and dwarfing the 1.4 billion in trade registered in 1996.
During then Indian prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's visit to China in 2003, the two countries opened the way to settling long-running border disputes, over which the neighbours fought a war in 1962. China did so by allowing Indian customs officials to monitor Chinese imports into Sikkim (a north-eastern state annexed by India in 1975), in effect accepting that the state belongs to India.
In return, the Indian government reiterated that it "recognises that the Tibet Autonomous Region is part of the territory of the People's Republic of China" and promised to limit "anti-China" activities at home. Though both sides stopped short of modifying their countries' polices on the border disputes, the gestures suggested the countries aimed to play down issues that have troubled the relationship for decades.
But Chinese President Hu Jintao's visit to Delhi this week yielded little significant steps for settling the political differences between the two sides apart from pledges to speed up the border talks that have lasted for 25 years.
"We both believe an early settlement on the boundary question serves the fundamental interest of our two countries," Hu said during a press conference after his summit with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
Progress on the border dispute was partly forestalled by a blunt reassertion of China's ownership of the entire Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh in the east, pronounced publicly by the Chinese ambassador to India just before the beginning of the state visit.
With several bilateral border disagreements still unresolved, India has been cautious about embracing closer direct trade links with China even as economic ties between the two have grown steadily.
In July this year the Nathu La pass, which connects Tibet to Sikkim, and which was shut during the Sino-Indian war, reopened for the first time in 44 years. The pass, which lies over 4 km above sea level, had been an important trade passage and part of the Silk Road connecting Chinato southern and western Asia and Europe.
But despite the symbolic value of its re-opening, the restrictions on trade and on the transit of people remain so the pass is unlikely to have a significant impact on economic links between the two countries.
India has allowed Tibetan traders to sell only 15 items, mostly livestock-related and textile products, while China has drawn up a list of 29 tradable items. Currently, tourists and other travellers are not allowed to use the Nathu La.
The anxieties and security concerns surrounding the re-opening of the ancient pass mirror the broader picture of Sino-Indian relations.
From the Indian perspective, China is already an important trading partner. In 2005, China bought 9.5 per cent of Indian exports-- its second largest market, after the United States, and was India's biggest source of imports.
Viewed from the other side, however, there is still much room for Sino-Indian economic cooperation to develop. Last year India bought just 1.1 per cent of China's total exports by value and supplied 1.5 per cent of its imports.
Despite the potential economic gains from developing closer ties, India's attitude has been circumspect. For one thing, it has concerns about an influx of cheap Chinese products damaging domestic industries if it relaxes import controls. It also harbours suspicions about investing heavily in China as it disagrees with the investment vehicle û the joint venture, which China has made the hallmark of its economic reform.
While the two sides pledged to more than double the bilateral trade by 2010, defensiveness on India's side made New Delhi sidestep Beijing's proposal for a free trade deal that would have allowed for an increased access of Chinese goods to Indian market. The two sides settled instead for conducting a feasibility study of a regional trade deal by October 2007.
"China is a keen observer of Saarc developments and we will explore possibilities to improve co-operation with our neighbours," Hu Jintao said, referring to the South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation, which includes seven nations -- Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
But even on this account New Delhi is watching warily as Beijing has embarked on a charm offensive in the region, cultivating closer economic and political ties with India's neighbours and trying to exert more influence in international affairs.
Beijing's continuing close relations with Pakistan, India's nemesis, are expected to get a boost from Hu Jintao's visit to Islamabad. The two sides are expected to announce a free trade deal and increased Chinese cooperation for the development of Pakistan's budding nuclear power sector.—Dawn/The IPS News Service
