Management of economy under military rule
By Zafar Iqbal
ONE of the strange coincidences of military rule is that whenever this happens there is heightened interest in Pakistan by the US. In the beginning, the US was probably hoping that India would cooperate, but it decided to become non-aligned.
Since Pakistan, although much smaller, also happened to be a little more strategically situated, Cento and Seato were created as instruments of US policy and Pakistan became a member of these organisations. The Ayub Khan government thrived on substantial US support. In Yahya’s time, China became important.
General Zia’s rule coincided with the Russian invasion of Afghanistan. However, by the 1990s, with the collapse of the USSR, the US lost interest in Pakistan. General Musharraf had a difficult three years 1999 — 2001 and then 9/11 occurred.
All three military governments followed somewhat different economic policies depending on internal and external conditions and the technocrat assigned to the job. During army rule the growth rate has usually been six per cent-plus. During civilian rule it has generally hovered around three and four per cent. The most important difference is that military rulers leave economic management to technocrats. The civilians employ technocrats but as a facade: to stay on they have to be pliable and acquiescent no matter what the prime minister wishes to perpetrate.
As far as current economic management is concerned, General Musharraf seems to have been fed the wrong paradigm: “liberalisation, de-regulation and privatisation.” This is the Wall Street mantra meant for the benefit of large multinational institutions generally supported by the IMF and the World Bank. There is nothing wrong with it per se, but it is not at the heart of the development process.
For countries like Pakistan, it is still “savings, investment and exports.” Liberalisation and deregulation have to be compatible with this process, otherwise it leads to trouble. It often starts with excessive import liberalisation on the assumption that it will automatically stimulate exports. It doesn’t.
The other problem which arises is that import substitution as an important element in the development process is ignored. The paradigm import — import substitution-export does not always hold in the short run, but unless excessive protection is offered and continued for too long, it is likely to work in the longer term, and, in any case, a transfer and development of skills does take place.
For the last few years we have followed an excessively relaxed monetary policy supplemented by liberalised imports. Base interest rates were brought down to around two per cent. In theory, low interest rates are supposed to encourage investment and also reduce the debt service on government borrowing. It probably did to some extent. However, the spillover from too much money sloshing around the financial sector found its way into consumer financing. Because of a desire to achieve a spectacular rate of growth, no attempt was made to contain this.
The result was rising inflation which is now being curbed by rising interest rates through reducing bank liquidity. This roller coaster management of interest rates is not good economic policy, but is the inevitable result of excessive lowering of the rates in the first place.
One result of the earlier policy of low interest rates was the pressure on the availability and prices of automobiles. As a result, a speculative secondary market developed which, by some accounts, was larger than the primary market. Up to 15 per cent premium was demanded for early delivery.
This excess demand could be contained through market-oriented fiscal measures — that is, a tax on interest for consumption loans or alternatively an increase in sales tax, particularly on the import component in local assembly. In order to protect domestic industry, an equivalent amount could be levied on import of the finished products.
Since we appear to be ideologically committed to the Washington Consensus on liberalisation etc., we acted by facilitating the import of used cars. This did bring down premiums on quick delivery, but put pressure on foreign exchange reserves, and also added to traffic congestion, pollution and a rising energy bill for the country. The costs of this are not negligible: some will be immediate, others may take longer to emerge. The foreign exchange spent on this would have been much better used in providing efficient urban transport in major cities. Since such activity, if carried out properly, is insufficiently profitable, it would have to be in the public sector. But that is anathema.
Another example of a similar problem is in private sector power generation. In the previous round sponsored by the World Bank the IPPs were given very generous terms. This was further enhanced by heavily over-invoiced projects being approved by the government. There was so much extra cash floating around that the sponsors could generously bribe the decision-makers. The end result was high cost of electricity.
This time around circumstances had changed and lower prices for electricity were offered. There was not much enthusiasm for this in the private sector. Wapda was debarred from putting up more generating capacity under some sort of understanding with the World Bank.
Since the Bank had not covered itself with glory in the previous round, why was this taken so seriously? It has only resulted in a shortage of generating capacity.
When one considers how the public sector has operated in Pakistan, the reluctance of the present government to entrust anything to a state-owned enterprise is understandable. This also coincides with its commitment to privatisation. Public sector enterprises have been treated by all governments as happy hunting grounds for favourites either from the military or civilian life.
The result was a combination of corruption and incompetence. These enterprises suffered from the usual problems of over-staffing, under-investment, political interference and corruption.
Nevertheless, in developing countries some things have to be done through the public sector. Making it effective is not impossible. Alternatively, public/private partnership can be considered, except that finding a suitable private partner is a major problem. What is needed is the proper selection of a suitable chief executive on the basis of competence, with adequate emoluments, a reasonable length of tenure, and assured autonomy of management. Under a political government the last is the most difficult.
This is based on my personal experience. On my rejoining the government, I was parked in the NDFC, a small unknown investment institution for financing public sector enterprises. I was supposed to be there for three months but was struck there for seven years because my peers did not want me around in Islamabad. This view was shared by the chief of staff to the president.
The options were either to feel sorry for myself and sulk and complain, or to get on with doing something useful. Under the martial law government, we had almost complete autonomy of management. As a result, the net income rose from Rs30 million to almost Rs270 million by the time I left. Some of it was the result of inflation but the bulk was real growth.
However, as soon as we got an elected prime minister in Mohammed Khan Junejo he made a couple of demands which were not possible to meet. He was naturally miffed and I was transferred to the ministry of production — which was fine. After all, it controlled the largest conglomerate in the country.
Whenever visiting the secretary, ministry of production, I was always intrigued by the fact that he was surrounded by files. How that helped in running a business was a mystery. On finding myself in that position, I discovered that the ministry was not organised as the headquarters of the conglomerate.
To make this plausible they had the support of something called the expert advisory cell which was supposed to provide them with the necessary input for assessing performance: it was where the Management Information System (MIS) was closed. On investigation, it appeared that the MIS was not very good; besides, the data was two months old by the time it was available on the computer. It wasn’t much use as a management tool. But who cared?

