AL QUDS: To some it's a concession. To others it shows Hamas's failure since coming to power. To the man himself, it's a sacrifice for the good of the people.
The decision last week by Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh to offer to step aside, possibly allowing the formation of a new government and the lifting of Western sanctions, means different things to different people.
Equally unclear is whether Haniyeh's move will lead to a meaningful change in the Palestinian political landscape.
Haniyeh, a senior figure in Hamas who has been prime minister since March, offered to quit in the hope it would allow a unity government to be formed, putting a “technocrat” with no direct Hamas affiliation in charge.
That might pave the way to the lifting of sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union after Hamas took power, and for millions of dollars in direct aid to flow again to the near-penniless Palestinian Authority.
“This is not a concession,” Haniyeh told Reuters following his decision. “It is a sacrifice for the sake of the Palestinian people. If they make me choose between lifting the siege and staying in office, I choose lifting the siege.”
Haniyeh's opponents, not just those in Israel, the United States and Europe, but also internally, from the rival Palestinian movement Fatah, see it at best as a concession, and at worst a temporary retreat.
“There is clearly pressure on Hamas, a need to accept a unity government, and this is an acknowledgement that it has been unable to govern, it has not been accepted internally, it has no money and no world recognition,” said Palestinian political analyst Basem Ezbidi.
“So they are compromising. But I believe this compromise will only be in the short-run.
It will use the time to rebuild its popularity and take off again.”
However Haniyeh's move is perceived, the crux of the matter is whether any new government will meet three conditions set by the United States, the European Union, Russia and the United Nations -- the Quartet of Middle East peace brokers.
For sanctions to be lifted, the Quartet wants a Palestinian government to recognise Israel's right to exist, renounce violence and sign up to existing peace deals with Israel.
Days after Haniyeh offered to step aside, Hamas, which intends to remain part of any new unity government, said it would never recognise Israel. It is a “red line” the movement has repeatedly said it will not cross, fearing that if it does so it could undermine its grassroots popularity.
The United States says it does not matter who is prime minister as long as the government meets the principles. “What we're interested in is the platform of the government, not its make up,” said a US embassy spokeswoman.
There are signs the EU might be willing to release extra aid to the government if a new coalition is formed without Haniyeh -- a compromise for a compromise -- but that won't go far enough to resolve the eight-month-old crisis.
So despite Haniyeh's move, the Quartet may end up with a government -- if and when it is formed, and there are signs it could take weeks yet -- that doesn't meet its core demands.
At the same time, Hamas may manage to look principled to its supporters -- by having stepped aside for the “greater good” while also continuing to refuse to recognise Israel.
This might allow Hamas, while failing to end sanctions which have worsened poverty, to retain the support that helped it win elections in January.
Khalil Shikaki, a leading Palestinian pollster, says his most recent survey, conducted in mid-September, showed Hamas's popularity unchanged from three months earlier at 40 per cent.
His next poll will be conducted in mid-December.
“It is doubtful that a deal with Fatah (on a unity government) would reduce the popularity of Hamas or be perceived as a sign of weakness by Hamas's constituency,” he told Reuters.
Haniyeh's decision to step down shows Hamas might compromise on political process but not core values, Shikaki said. Thus Haniyeh's move, while offering a shake-up in Palestinian politics, may produce little change.
And if fresh elections were called, Hamas would still be a strong contender.—Reuters
