BEIRUT: Across the Middle East, hope is mixed with dread at even the chance of large-scale US policy shifts toward Iran, Syria or Iraq. Many believe outreach to Syria or Iran could boost Palestinian peace efforts, but they also fear any quick US pullout from Iraq could leave the region reeling.
The uncertainty is causing widespread unease _ and strong lobbying efforts _ at a time when everything from Baghdad's violent streets and Beirut's squabbling government to negotiating efforts in Cairo and Gaza could ride on what President Bush decides.Jordan's foreign minister struck a typical note this week, urging the involvement of regional governments in efforts to stabilise Iraq _ a clear reference to getting Iran and Syria involved. ''Sectarian strife is something that is not limited to one country,'' if Iraq boils over, the minister, Abdul-Ilah al-Khatib, warned.
In particular, it is Mr Bush's apparent openness to the findings of a commission co-headed by James Baker III, known as a master of past Syrian diplomacy, that has left many Arabs believing change is coming. Many believe Mr Baker could persuade Mr Bush to reach out to Syria or even launch the type of grand, overall peace effort Baker was known for decades ago.
Mr Baker also has met Iranian officials as the commission readies its report.
But Mr Bush himself has given no indication he will make concessions to Syria or consider a softer line toward Iran. After meeting with Israel's prime minister, he insisted anew that Iran has to stop uranium enrichment before any talks.
His secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, has struck the same tone, showing no new public willingness to ask for help from US enemies.
Ms Rice also warned there is `'no magic bullet’ to help stabilise Iraq. That statement comes as some US military experts are criticizing the idea of a quick US withdrawal from Iraq _ an idea that had seemed to initially gain momentum after Democratic victories in Congress.
The Iraq issue is perhaps the most fraught for the Arab world.
Most Arab governments believe the US has made a hash of the country. It might be expected, then, that they would want the US military to leave _ and some do.
DILEMMA: But others worry that if the US pulls out too soon, the country's misery will spill over and inflame the already tense Sunni-Shiite split across the region. They also worry about a rise in Iran's influence.
The big fear is Jordan _ a key ally of the United States whose king always has to carefully guard his political position but who faces new vulnerability now sandwiched between a violent Gaza and floods of Iraqi refugees.
Many regional diplomats have said privately in recent months that they fear for Jordan's stability should the United States pull out of Iraq.
The other big, always-pressing issue for Arabs is the Palestinian-Israeli crisis. On yesterday a key US envoy met in Cairo with European, UN and Arab diplomats to boost efforts to form a Palestinian unity government between Hamas and the more moderate Fatah.
That small step might be promising but there are many obstacles ahead, including Hamas' refusal to recognize Israel and renounce violence. Hamas has been evasive whether it would allow a unity government to pursue a peace agenda. And it remains unclear if Israel _ in political deadlock after last summer's war with Hezbollah _ would consider such a thing even if Hamas was willing.''The problem with a heavy push to Israel-Palestinian peace is that Israeli politics is without a strategic compass and Palestinian politics is without a strategic compass,'' said Jon Alterman, a Mideast expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Yet some Arabs see hope in bringing Syria and its backer Iran into the equation. Both countries are believed to encourage Hamas' hardline and thus if they could be brought into the fold, might ease up that pressure.
If the US did reach out to either Iran or Syria, however, the impact could stretch far beyond the Palstinians and Iraq.
Lebanon also might feel the ripples. Dissidents like Syrian Amman Abdulhamid worry that if the United States reached out to Syria, it might need to offer some concession _ perhaps to soft-pedal or scuttle a US-backed probe into possible Syrian involvement in the killing of a Lebanese prime minister.
And that, as Abdulhamid wrote this week in a Lebanese paper, could have a devastating effect on Lebanon's efforts toward democracy and the whole effort toward US democracy-building in the Mideast.
In all, no quick or easy fixes exist to solve the problems in the Mideast, says Richard Haass of the Council on Foreign Relations.
''The Middle East will remain a troubled and troubling part of the world for decades to come,'' he wrote recently. ''The challenge will be to contain the effects.''—AP
