US nightmare: interrupted, but not over
By Mahir Ali
SHORTLY after Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans and surrounding regions last year, George W. Bush felt obliged to emerge from his comfort zone and tour the affected areas. By then it was already becoming clear that the plight of nature’s victims had been exacerbated by the appalling inadequacy of rescue efforts.
The federal agency responsible for this crucial work had, under Bush, been subsumed into the Department of Homeland Security and was headed by Mike Brown, a Bush crony with a long record of dubious competence.
In a speech during a stopover in Mobile, Alabama, Bush glanced at the agency’s director and declared: “Brownie, you’re doing a heck of a job.” Ten days later, Brown was forced to resign.
I recall noting at the time that on a September morning in 2001, Bush had been caught napping while disaster struck in New York and Washington. For several minutes after being informed about what was happening at the World Trade Centre, an impassive-looking president kept listening to a story called ‘My Pet Goat’ at an elementary school in Florida.
Brown’s post-Katrina exit in 2005 was calculated to take the sting out of widespread criticism of the federal government’s handling of the hurricane’s aftermath, and it seemed the dire Bush presidency could be summed up as a four-year journey from ‘My Pet Goat’ to ‘My Pet Scapegoat’. Who could have guessed that there would be a blockbuster sequel in store?
Less than a week before election day, Bush told news agencies that Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld were both “doing fantastic jobs”. Once the election results were in, Rumsfeld was out. Cheney, unfortunately, appears to be going nowhere for the time being. He nonchalantly went hunting on election day, but evidently didn’t take Rumsfeld or Bush with him.
‘My Pet Scapegoat II’ might have been an apt title for the Rumsfeld episode, except for the fact that, as a leading proponent and architect of the aggression against Iraq, he doesn’t strictly qualify as a scapegoat — although there can be little question that his exit is intended to take some of the heat off the Bush administration. White Hawk Down might, in the event, be more fitting.
And chances are we won’t have to wait until next year for the follow-up: with little prospect of congressional ratification, John Bolton is unlikely to retain his job as the US ambassador to the United Nations beyond December 31. Although the upper house will remain in Republican hands until the end of the year, crucial senators from both parties have suggested there would be little point in reconsidering Bolton’s nomination. The White House is standing by the ambassador, hailing him as a consensus-builder — an aspect that was conspicuously on display in the Security Council last Saturday as Bolton vetoed a resolution critical of the carnage Israel is causing in Gaza.
On the other hand, it is unlikely that Robert Gates, who has been nominated to succeed Rumsfeld as defence secretary, will face too much trouble during confirmation hearings, even though he does have a past that deserves scrutiny. As a deputy director of the CIA, he was in charge of sharing intelligence with Saddam Hussein’s regime during the Iran-Iraq war. In the late 1980s, he was nominated by Ronald Reagan as head of the CIA, but Congress baulked at the idea in the face of strong suspicions of his involvement in the Iran-Contra affair (which makes it particularly ironic that his return to the limelight coincided with Daniel Ortega’s victory in the Nicaraguan presidential election).
When Reagan’s successor, George Bush the Elder, re-nominated him as CIA director in 1991, Congress heard plenty of evidence that Gates had been involved in skewing intelligence about the Soviet Union in order to align it more closely with his own ideological inclinations and those of his political masters. The serious risks associated with that tendency have, of course, been amply illustrated in the context of Iraq. But Gates will get an easy ride this time around, if only because he is not Rumsfeld. Fortunately, he appears to realise that Iraq is a mess of America’s own making, and has hitherto preferred the idea of negotiations rather than a confrontation with Iran.
Until his nomination, Gates was a member of the Iraq Study Group co-chaired by former secretary of state James Baker and ex-congressman Lee Hamilton. The group, whose members met George W. Bush this week, is expected to come up with proposals on a different strategy on Iraq early next month. Leaks suggest these include a plea for coordination, rather than confrontation, with Syria and Iran. There have, separately, been calls for a regional conference in the Dayton mould. In meetings with Democratic leaders, a visibly chastened Bush has declared himself to be amenable to bipartisanship.
The president, however, is probably aware that the Democrats don’t really have a plan: although their resounding success in last week’s elections was primarily based on opposition to the administration’s conduct of the Iraq war, hardly any of them has articulated a clear alternative. Much like the White House, they are waiting to take their cue from the Baker group’s report. The trouble is, the latter’s recommendations are hardly likely to measure up to expectations. The group is being counted upon to come up with a miracle: a plan whereby the US can extricate itself from Iraq with a modicum of dignity, preferably without leaving behind a bloody mess.
That is impossible. It hasn’t really been possible since the beginning of the invasion. In remarks made after his resignation was announced, Rumsfeld declared: “The first war of the 21st century ... is not well known, it was not well understood. It is complex for people to comprehend.” That’s only true to extent that, as most US generals have long been aware, he was personally never able to comprehend what was going on. But then, one could hardly have expected him to acknowledge the one thing about the war that has been painfully clear from the outset: that it should never have been waged in the first place.
The schadenfreude that greeted last week’s events in the US isn’t misplaced. Within the limitations of American-style democracy, an important point has been made. But there are no sound reasons to allow the initial excitement and relief to give way to a sustained optimism.
The Democrats did indeed do better than many analysts suspected they would: they will comfortably control the next House of Representatives, and have managed, against the odds, to gain an edge in the Senate with the support of two independents: one of them is Bernie Sanders of Vermont, the first socialist senator in US history; the other is the far-right, pro-war Joe Lieberman. The Democratic intake includes a sizeable proportion of social conservatives, who may well have been put up as candidates precisely for that reason, in the hope that their opposition to abortion and gun control would help to push them across the line. Perhaps it did: the Democrats improved their share of the Catholic and evangelical votes. But where exactly does that leave the United States?
Not particularly far removed, it would seem, from the spot where it stood on the day before the elections. It is significant, of course, that a majority of voters paid no heed to Bush’s absurd insinuation that a Democratic victory would be a victory for the terrorists, thereby dealing a possibly decisive blow to Karl Rove’s dream of a permanent Republican majority. It is at least equally significant that such a bitterly contested election attracted a turnout of little more than 40 per cent, which is considered high by mid-term standards. I haven’t come across any breast-beating in the American press over this dismal statistic, which betrays a serious democracy deficit. Nor do any media organs appear to have shown the slightest inclination towards investigating why nearly 60 per cent of the electorate couldn’t be bothered to vote. Is cynicism the primary motivating factor for the self-disenfranchised, or is it apathy? Could it be ignorance?
Some commentators have described the Democratic tide as a triumph for the Left, but it can only seem that way from an extreme Right point of view. Nancy Pelosi, the next speaker of the House of Representatives — and the first woman to reach that position, which puts her two heartbeats away from the presidency — recognises that the American presence in Iraq is a pointless provocation, but her power to compel a drastic change of course is limited, while her reputation as a San Francisco liberal is somewhat exaggerated.
Other senior Democrats have called for troop withdrawals to begin within the next few months, even as neo-con ideologues — increasingly disenchanted with the Bush administration for its inability to deliver free markets and a US-friendly democracy via bullets, bombs and missiles — continue to call for increased military strength as a means of exterminating the dogged Iraqi resistance.
Yes, there is cause for rejoicing, but let it be tempered by the realistic recognition that, in all probability, the question of what to do about Iraq will still be up in the air by the time the next presidential election rolls around in 2008. Nor is there any guarantee that the US will indeed choose jaw-jaw over war-war as the ideal means of dealing with Iran. And for the besieged Palestinians of Gaza there can be little comfort in the knowledge that the Democrats, if anything, are even more hide-bound than the Republicans in their obsequiousness towards Israel.
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