November 12, 2006	Sunday	Shawwal 19, 1427

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ISLAMABAD, Nov 11: The Indus irrigation system, which is the largest contiguous irrigation system in the world, is likely to register a dramatic decrease in river flows, conceivably by more than 30 per cent in the second half of the 21st century.

"This major permanent reduction in run-off will have enormous consequences for livelihoods in the Indus Basin and for Pakistan’s food supplies," observes ‘Human Development Report 2006’, released by the UN Development Programme (UNDP).

According to the report, water from the Indus basin has become a sensitive political as there is an inter-provincial dispute of water distribution affecting agriculture in the provinces. The projected decrease in river flows would have a negative impact on Irsa’s efforts to resolve the inter-provincial disputes over water distribution.

The report says the Himalayan glaciers provide about 180 billion cubic metres of water each year for Pakistan, which flows into the Indus and other river systems.

“Even with corrective action at a global level, glacial retreat will continue for at least half a century. River flows will increase, raising the likelihood of flash floods and exacerbating already acute irrigation drainage problems,” says the report.

Terming glaciers as ‘water banks’ the report says: "They save water in the form of ice and snow during winter months, releasing it slowly into rivers and lakes as temperatures rise." The report claims that global warming has registered its main impact on glaciers. In the 1990s glacial mass fell at three times the rate of the previous decade, pointing to a global acceleration in melting, it says. But the most profound consequences will be experienced in the decades ahead, according to the report.

Looking back over the past half-century, perhaps the most extraordinary water governance outcome has been the level of conflict resolution -- and the durability of water governance institutions. The Permanent Indus Water Commission, which oversees a treaty on water sharing and a mechanism for dispute resolution, survived and functioned during two major wars between India and Pakistan, says the report.

With global warming glaciers are melting more rapidly, increasing the risk of flooding in spring, followed by water shortages in summer. Over the next 50 years, glacial melt could emerge as one of the gravest threats to human progress and food security, reveals HDR 2006.

The glaciers of the Himalayas and Tibet alone feed seven of the world’s greatest rivers --Brahmaputra, the Ganges, Indus, Irrawady, Mekong, Salween and Yangtze -- that provide water supplies for more than two billion people.

The report says the world is not running out of water but many countries are running out of time to tackle the critical problems presented by water stress.