WASHINGTON, Nov 6: Dissatisfaction with the conduct of the war in Iraq remains the driving force behind a possible Republican defeat in America’s mid-term elections but by Monday afternoon the Democratic advantage in opinion polls had begun to shrink.
Political pundits now predict that the voters’ turnout will be the deciding factor in Tuesday’s elections and the party which succeeds in bringing most of its supporters to the polling booths may also win the US Congress.
The non-partisan Pew Research Center found Republicans cutting the Democrat lead from an 11-point margin two weeks ago to a four-point margin now.
A Washington Post-ABC News poll gave the Democrats a six-percentage-point lead among likely voters, down from 14 points two weeks ago.
With less than 12 hours to the polling in some areas, both Republican and Democratic parties launched a massive campaign to bring out the voters.
Republicans were buoyed by a new poll showing voters more optimistic about the economy, a potential boost for their embattled candidates, and they cheered the death sentence for former Iraq president Saddam Hussein.
Yet confident Democrats downplayed the impact of the verdict and insisted that overall pessimism about Iraq would still dominate the election and drive Republicans from the house majority for the first time in 12 years.
Democrats pointed out that some of the architects of the Bush administration’s war plans –- Richard Perle, Michael Ledeen and former White House speechwriter David Frum -– were also criticising the war now.
Winning the house would give Democrats the lead in proposing legislation. Although even if the Democrats win the Senate too, President George Bush can still exercise his veto if he chooses.
President Bush may be the main victim if the Republicans lose Congress.
A Democratic-controlled Congress will make Mr Bush a lame-duck president for his remaining 26 months in office, further diminishing his chances of negotiating an honourable retreat from Iraq.
Aware of the implications of a Republican defeat, Mr Bush tried to exploit people’s fear of an oil price hike by claiming that if left alone, Iraqi extremists “would use energy as economic blackmail” and would try to persuade the US to abandon its alliance with Israel.
He suggested that the radicals might cut off the supply of Iraqi oil, pushing the oil prices to $300 to $400 a barrel.
The Democrats, however, were confident that such rhetoric would not have much impact on the voters. They noted that although their lead had shrunk, most opinion polls were still predicting a Democratic victory.
Some independent analysts also backed up the Democratic optimism: the Rothenberg Political Report predicted Democratic gains of 34 to 40 seats, the Cook Political Report predicted 20 to 35 seats, the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics predicted 27 and the Evans-Novak Political Report 20 seats.
Currently, Republicans control both the chambers of Congress. Democrats must win 15 seats to take the house and six to control the Senate.
In the House of Representatives, all 435 seats are up for grabs every two years. Democrats last had control of the House in 1994.
Currently, 231 house seats are held by Republicans, 201 by Democrats, one by an independent and two are vacant.
In the Senate, 33 seats are up for election. Democrats controlled the Senate for 17 months in 2001 and 2002. Before that, they had not had control since 1994.
Currently, 55 Senate seats are held by Republicans, 44 by Democrats and one by an independent.
In addition, 36 of the 50 states will elect governors. In these states, currently Republicans have 22 governors and Democrats have 14.
This year, voters will face ballot measures pertaining to abortion, stem cells, eminent domain, renewable energy and the minimum wage.
In Arizona, voters will be asked if they favour voter participation in a ‘Who wants to be a millionaire’ show. If it passes, the measure would require state officials to randomly draw one voter’s name for a $1 million prize.
Both Pakistani and Indian communities in the US are reluctant to take a decisive stand in the election. Like most immigrants, they feel that the Democrats are good for them.
But the Pakistanis also feel that a Republican administration is traditionally more supportive of Pakistan.
Similarly, the Indians fear that a Democratic-controlled Congress may jeopardise the nuclear deal India is eager to sign with the US.
