BEIJING, Oct 15: A huge flow of refugees, a stronger US presence in the region and economic pressures that could impact the stability of its government — those are the worst fears for China in the event North Korea collapsed.
The conclusion China has come to as it weighs its response to North Korea’s announcement last week that it conducted a nuclear test is that while nuclear is bad, collapse is worse.
“China will have to compromise in terms of tolerating a nuclear power on its doorstep — its primary aim is to retain regime stability in North Korea,” said Alexander Neill, head of the Asia Programme at Britain’s Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies.
China condemned North Korea, after the nuclear test, but since then pushed for softer language in a UN resolution imposing sanctions, fearful of pushing the country into collapse.
“The potential flood of refugees from North Korea is one of the biggest concerns of the Chinese government,” said Wang Qinghong, a fellow of the Pacific Forum CSIS, a Hawaii-based think-tank.
Hardest hit would be China’s north-eastern provinces, its old industrial base still transitioning out of decades of state planning.
“The local governments already have a big burden there to take care of laid-off workers,” said Mr Wang.
International aid organisations would no doubt be lining up to help.
But for a Chinese leadership that sees assistance as interference and fears movements like the ‘colour revolutions’ that toppled dictatorships in post-Soviet Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan, a heavy aid presence could seem more like an added challenge than a help.
Former North Korean soldiers could also be among those leaving across their 1,400-km border — conventional weapons in hand — contributing to criminal gangs and black market networks.
BALANCE OF POWER: Some say given China’s 1.3 billion people, any refugee movement would be a drop in the bucket; others point out that North Koreans might just as easily move across the demilitarised zone into the South.
But with two million ethnic Koreans already living in China, a wave of more could add to uncertainty over territorial controversies.
“The Chinese have been making historical claims and reasserting their control over Changbaishan, so they seem to be worried about something,” said Peter Beck of the International Crisis Group, referring to Korea’s revered mountain.—Reuters
