BEIJING: North Korea’s vow to carry out a nuclear test may shake China’s faith in patient diplomacy over its neighbour’s ambitions, forcing it closer to the hardball approach long favoured by Washington and Tokyo.
However, there are no signs yet that China would be prepared to slap sanctions on its long-time communist ally, and Chinese aid is still flowing into the impoverished country.
But well-connected Chinese experts are beginning to wonder publicly if the six-country talks hosted by Beijing and aimed at winding up North Korea’s nuclear programme are doomed, dramatically narrowing options for a diplomatic solution.
“The six-party talks may be about done for,” said Zhang Liangui, an expert on North Korea at the Central Party School, a Communist Party think-tank, in Beijing.
“North Korea never liked them in the first place but they participated to win time and then delayed when they could. Even if they can go on, they can’t to achieve substantial results.”
Zhang and other analysts said North Korea considers developing a nuclear arsenal to be a priority.
Pyongyang’s vow on Tuesday to test a nuclear device has sharply raised the international temperature over that goal, casting doubt over Beijing’s traditional calls for dialogue as the best response.
“North Korea has crossed another red line,” Zhang said. “The option of avoidance and calling for negotiations that aren’t going anywhere is only going to make the North Korean nuclear issue worse.”
Japan is pressing for UN condemnation of the test threat, while Washington, in its starkest warning so far, told North Korea on Wednesday it could have a future or it could have nuclear weapons, but not both.
Chinese diplomats insisted the six-party talks involving both Koreas, the United States, Japan and Russia should be the “main channel” to defuse tensions, state media reported on Thursday.
But the talks have been in limbo since late last year over North Korean objections to US financial restrictions.
The United States and others in the six-party process have long looked to China, the closest Pyongyang has to an ally, to influence North Korea and strongarm it back to the talks.
But a deepening estrangement between the two countries may have narrowed China’s scope for persuasion. Until North Korea test-fired a volley of missiles in July, despite a public plea from China’s Premier Wen Jiabao, relations between the two neighbours appeared to be warming. Chinese President Hu Jintao visited Pyongyang last year and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il toured China in January, reinforcing ties.
Beijing’s support for a UN Security Council resolution condemning July’s missile tests showed the tide turning.
“The prelude to a divorce is when the couple stops talking, and we’re seeing signs of that here,” said John Park, an expert on North Korea at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government.
China would likely support a UN resolution condemning a nuclear test, but it would be reluctant to slap substantial economic sanctions on Pyongyang, fearing they would push the pauperized fortress state into total collapse, said Shen Dingli, a nuclear diplomacy expert at Shanghai’s Fudan University.
“North Korea has brought damage to us already; we should not bring more danger to ourselves, for example, by the collapse of the system,” he said.
Nevertheless, China’s policy of balancing between North Korean brinksmanship and Western pressure is increasingly strained, and Beijing policy-makers may eventually have to consider biting penalties on Pyongyang, said Cai Jian, an expert on China-North Korea relations at Shanghai’s Fudan University.—Reuters
