ANKARA: It was an unusual question for the leader of a country seeking European Union membership but Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan took it in his stride.
Asked during a visit last weekend to the United States if Turks might wake one morning to the sound of tanks rumbling through the streets, Erdogan said: “Military coups are now a thing of the past. Turkey is now negotiating for EU entry.”
Most Turks would agree their country is far from the situation in 1997 when the army, with strong public support, ousted in a non-violent coup a government seen as too Islamist.
With a booming economy and a stable, still broadly popular one-party government, Turkey is not about to emulate last month’s military coup in Thailand.
However, the question did highlight rising tensions between Erdogan’s ruling AK Party, with Islamist roots, and Turkey’s secular establishment, including the armed forces, ahead of presidential and parliamentary elections due in 2007.
The new head of Turkey’s military General Staff, Yasar Buyukanit, and his most senior officers have publicly warned in recent days of an “Islamist threat” and accused senior AK Party officials of undermining secularism. They also defended their right to speak out on politics, defying Erdogan and the EU.
Political analysts say the generals’ comments reflect anger over EU efforts to curb their influence, concerns over next May’s battle for the presidency and also the desire of a new, more hawkish army leadership to stamp its mark.
“The bottom line is they see the EU as a threat to their power,” said Lale Sariibrahimoglu, Turkey correspondent of the respected military experts, Jane’s Defence Weekly.
“Tensions are rising because of the presidential elections. I think the generals will continue to speak out in this way.”
The timing of the generals’ remarks is embarrassing for the government, which this week is hosting EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn. On Tuesday, Rehn repeated the EU view that the army must be brought under full civilian control.
The generals have been further emboldened by a rising tide of nationalism in Turkey that is itself a reaction to EU demands on sensitive issues ranging from Cyprus to human rights.
The military, which views itself as ultimate guardian of Turkey’s secular order, is nervous at the prospect of parliament choosing Erdogan or another senior AK Party member as president when the staunchly secular incumbent, Ahmet Necdet Sezer, retires in May. The AK Party has a big parliamentary majority.
“The prime aim of the military, in these conditions, is to keep control of Cankaya,” said Ali Bayramoglu in Wednesday’s edition of the pro-government Yeni Safak daily. Cankaya is the presidential residence in Ankara.
The president has powers to veto laws once and to appoint key officials. Symbolically, he is also the heir to Kemal Ataturk, founder of the modern secular republic that the army suspects Erdogan of trying to undermine.
Turkish secularists fear an AK Party president would work to relax the ban on Muslim headscarves in universities and public offices and to promote more Islamist-minded officials.
Some analysts say the government, feeling the heat of army pressure, may opt for a compromise figure for the presidency.
“The government wants to avoid a head-on collision with the military but the reverse is also true.
“The army does still want Turkey to join the EU, in principle,” said William Hale, a veteran Turkey expert now at Istanbul’s Sabanci University.
EU membership is regarded by Turkey’s elite as the culmination of the push towards Europe launched by Ataturk in the 1920s.
“And despite the EU criticism of the army’s role, some in the EU are also aware of the military’s useful role in keeping Turkey secular and firmly tied to the West,” said Hale.
Analysts ruled out a 1997-style coup, though they agreed the situation could become much less predictable if ties with the EU soured to the point where talks were suspended.
“The environment is not conducive for a post-modern coup,” said Wolfango Piccoli of Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, citing Turkey’s economic and political stability.
“The military is testing the waters, gauging how much support it has in public... Even if the EU process did fail, the AK Party would then follow a more nationalistic line which the army would be likely to approve of.”—Reuters
