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| October 01, 2006 | Sunday | Ramazan 7, 1427 |
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Anomalies in oil pricing
Dengue fever is back
Coming home from the Land of Oz
THOSE of us who remember the classic fairy tale movie, The Wizard of Oz, might see in it some allegorical resemblance with our situation today.
VIOLENCE in Iraq has spun out of control, and the advent of Ramazan seems to have had no effect on bloodletting. In Baghdad, where a curfew has been imposed, the average death toll is 100 a day. Attacks on houses and residential buildings for sectarian reasons have led to a mass flight of people, with 40,000 families having fled their homes, some of them as far back as February. On the whole, by the last week of September, nearly a quarter-million people had registered with the government as displaced persons.
To get an idea of the anarchy in Iraq and what is in store for the country, one must take note of three reports from three different quarters to realise how most observers of the Iraqi scene see little possibility of a change for the better under the present circumstances. The first report is a survey of Iraqi opinion by a policy group at Maryland University. Of the 1,150 Iraqis surveyed, 78 per cent blamed the ongoing violence on the presence of American forces. Giving a sectarian and ethnic breakdown of the survey, the report says that 41 per cent of the Kurds, 82 per cent of the Shias and 97 per cent of the Sunnis polled are against the presence of American troops in the country, and on the whole 71 per cent say they want the occupation forces to withdraw within a year. However, the most telltale and damning report is American. Declassified by the Bush administration and prepared by the National Intelligence Estimates, the report says that, far from contributing to the success of the war on terror, America’s war in Iraq has contributed to the spread of terrorism and “Islamic radicalism”. In fact, the report says that the war in Iraq has become a cause celebre, swelling the ranks of terrorists who are likely to grow in numbers for the next five years. The report contains a gist of intelligence estimates by the 16 American intelligence agencies and paints a gloomier picture of the Iraqi situation than hitherto conceded by the Bush administration.
The third report is by the UN, which says the country has become “deadlier” than ever. In a report released last week, the UN said that 6,599 Iraqis were killed in July and August, 700 more than during the previous two months, and many were tortured to death, with hospitals performing autopsies on bodies with broken limbs, acid-induced burns, missing eyes and wounds caused by power drills and nails. In Baghdad, law and order has broken down, with the last week recording the highest number of suicide attacks, while the police in Baghdad said they recovered 55 bodies showing signs of severe torture. No wonder the chief of the UN torture monitoring committee should call the current level of torture in Iraq worse than that under Mr Saddam Hussein.
All said and done, Iraq has an elected government, and on the whole there have been three electoral exercises which were fair, with a high turnout. Yet the reason why the elected government does not command the people’s respect is that all those elections and the referendum were held under foreign occupation. That explains why people look at their government leaders as collaborators. Such a regime cannot restore peace to Iraq, which will continue to bleed and burn so long as foreign forces take it upon themselves the task of giving peace and freedom to Iraq.
IN a country where the government boasts ad nauseam of its concern for poverty alleviation, it is shocking to find that the anomalies in the oil-pricing formula ensure that the consumers are always the losers. High petrol prices fuel inflation which hits the poor the hardest. Yet the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority does not always take into account the trends in the international petroleum market in determining the oil prices it announces periodically. When the world prices of petrol spiral upwards, as they did two months ago to touch $78 a barrel, OGRA is quick to raise prices in the domestic market. But a fall in price in the world oil market — as at present when oil is selling at $60 a barrel — does not lead to a corresponding fall in prices in the country. As a result, the price of petrol has risen by 140 per cent in the last seven years in Pakistan. Seen against this background, the demand made by the The Network for Consumer Protection that the government should pass on the benefit of the fall in oil prices to the consumers is quite valid and logical.
There is not much strength in the government’s plea that it pays a subsidy to meet the losses incurred when international prices shoot up. The fact is that the price fixed for oil in the domestic market does not accurately reflect international prices. A Pakistani consumer has to pay nearly double the price for the petrol he buys in view of the high taxes — 43 per cent — the government imposes on oil. It is a pity that a small fall in revenues is regarded as a subsidy by the government. At no time has the government ever admitted to a fall in its revenue rates as a result of a rise in world oil prices. The oil companies also continue to make hefty profits as press reports suggest. Isn’t it time the government adopted a new strategy to check inflation? It should try pegging oil prices at a modest level by foregoing its own revenues. This will have a desirable impact on prices of essential goods and transportation, making life easier for low-income groups.
DENGUE fever has hit Karachi yet again. Also called breakbone fever for the excruciating skeletal pain associated with the disease, dengue fever is caused by a virus transmitted by infected Aedes mosquitoes and is fairly common in tropical and subtropical countries. Classic and mild dengue fever pose only a passing threat. Recovery is complete and symptoms — fever, joint aches, severe headaches and skin rashes — last no more than a week though weakness and depression can linger on for much longer. Severe forms of the illness can be fatal, however, as seen recently in Karachi where at least two patients died. Dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) and the associated shock syndrome present additional symptoms such as coughing, vomiting and severe abdominal pain, and can lead to blood clotting, internal bleeding, skin haemorrhage, bleeding from the nose or gums, convulsions and organ failure. Classic dengue and DHF cannot be spread from person to person, though medical and paramedical staff are advised to exercise extreme caution.
Karachi saw a major DHF outbreak in November 2005, followed by more cases this year before and during the monsoon. Over the last few days, hospitals in the city have reported over a dozen DHF cases, a clear sign that the dengue virus is making a major comeback. The health authorities must immediately launch a media campaign to raise awareness of the disease among ordinary citizens as well as doctors so as to enable them to make timely, life-saving diagnoses. The civic authorities need to ensure that the stagnant water still standing in various parts of the city is first fumigated and then removed as quickly as possible. Citizens should protect themselves by using mosquito repellents or nets and need to take extra care in the early morning and late afternoon prior to sunset. Unlike some other mosquitoes, Aedes bites during the day.
Pakistan under Musharraf seems to represent its main character, Dorothy Gale, a young, helpless, good natured adopted orphan girl snatched up by a Kansas tornado and deposited in a “fantasy land of witches,” including a brainless talking “scarecrow,” the “wicked witch” of the West, the “wicked witch” of the East, the “good witch” of the North, and many more.
The upset young girl isn’t taken seriously by anyone. The adults (elders) are too busy with their own problems to be bothered and listen to her foolish concerns. Dorothy tries to convince them that her neighbour, Miss Gulch, the wicked witch has been hitting her dog, Toto because he gets into her garden and chases her “nasty old cat.” “He doesn’t do it every day - just once or twice a week and he can’t catch her old cat anyway,” she explains. The cranky neighbour is threatening to have her little dog taken by the sheriff and put to sleep.
Dorothy takes her problem to the farm’s hired helpers who are fixing a wagon in the farmyard — maybe they will listen. Tall and slender hired man Hunk, quickly characterised as lacking brains and intelligence, off-handedly counsels Dorothy, prophetically, to use her brain — and not walk home near Mrs. Gulch’s house to avoid trouble.
One doesn’t have to apply too much of “brain” to identify today’s version of these characters. A reality scene of the Wizard of Oz was enacted the other day at the White House with President Bush hosting an Iftar dinner for two of his friends, Pakistan’s President Musharraf and Afghanistan’s Hamid Karzai to reconcile their differences and to join together in fighting terrorism. Poor Musharraf, like Dorothy Gale in the Wizard of Oz, is not taken seriously by anyone. Our neighbours in the east and the west are all the time cribbing against him
Woefully, for Pakistan, the last few years have been a fateful and depressing period. It has been making difficult choices under duress. It has been crying for peace and accepting conditions that it cannot meet. It is required to free India and Afghanistan of all terrorist acts. This is an impossible task for a beleaguered government which has not been able to free its own country from frequent incidents of terrorism. Despite the unstinted support that Musharraf has been extending to the global war on terror, he continues to be prodded to do more, while his intelligence services also remain under constant attack and, without evidence, are being accused of aiding Al Qaeda and the Taliban.
Why are we at the receiving end of all this? A soul-searching will reveal that we ourselves are to blame. Religious extremism, militancy, violence and terrorism-related problems have placed Pakistan on the global radar screen as one of the epochal “frontlines of the war on terror.”
Our domestic failures have seriously constricted our options. Decades of political instability resulting from protracted military rule, institutional paralysis, poor governance, socio-economic malaise, rampant crime and corruption, and general aversion to the rule of law have exacerbated Pakistans external image and standing. Terrorism is our sole identity now. We are seen both as a problem and as a key to its solution. This perception not only impairs our global image but also complicates things for our government in our dealings with friends and foes alike. The US, in particular, sees Pakistan as the “ground zero” and a pivotal lynchpin in its fight against terrorism, and for all purposes, now brackets Pakistan with Afghanistan. This is an unenviable distinction which circumscribes our role both within and beyond our region.
The world watches us with anxiety and concern as we claim unrivalled distinction of having captured almost 700 Al-Qaeda “coyotes” and receiving millions of US dollars from CIA as the bounty over the heads of more than half of them who were turned over to the US. Our crucial role in this campaign complicates our tasks, both at home and at regional and global levels.
To make things even worse, our image in recent years as a “responsible nuclear state” has been marred by alleged proliferation scandals. US Secretary of State and other senior officials have publicly made it clear that no nuclear deal was possible with Pakistan, as according to them, there were serious “concerns” over its “proliferation” record.
President Bush also left us in no doubt on this issue when, during his visit to Islamabad in March this year, he told Pakistan bluntly not to expect a “civilian nuclear agreement” like the one he had signed with India because they were “two different countries with different needs and different histories and could not be compared to each other.” He described India as a “great democracy and a responsible nuclear power” which had earned the right to nuclear technology. In his perception, Pakistan was neither a democracy nor a “responsible” nuclear state.
No wonder, since then the mood in Pakistan at all levels, including at the government level, has been one of concern and dismay over the spectacularly preferential treatment that India received during President Bush’s visit to New Delhi. Whatever the reasons, this time in Washington the treatment accorded to President Musharraf was spectacularly different and cordial, though somewhat condescending.
President Musharraf seems to have received an open and warm expression of support at a time when he was expecting to come under renewed US pressure to take off his uniform and prepare for free and fair elections next year. It seems President Bush who is worried about his own growing difficulties emanating from the continuously worsening situation in Iraq and Afghanistan, now looks at President Musharraf as the only remaining lynchpin in his “holy war on terror.”
This explains his anxiety to defuse the tensions between Pakistan on the one hand and India and Afghanistan on the other. He has managed to persuade India to resume the “composite” dialogue by securing Pakistan’s agreement on an institutional counter-terrorism joint mechanism. India, on its part, still does not relent in its demands for Pakistan “to stop cross-border” terrorism.
Meanwhile, Karzai has crossed all limits. He continues to blame Pakistan and Musharraf for every problem that he faces in his war-ravaged and politically-devastated country. With no roots of his own among his people (he was parachuted from overseas after 9/11), he is becoming more and more desperate and venomous every day and does not let an opportunity go without firing at Pakistan. There has to be a limit for Pakistan to be “in the line of Karzai’s fire.”
The US may not have threatened to bomb Pakistan back to the Stone Age, but it has paired it inextricably with Karzai’s Afghanistan, a country which has repeatedly been bombed, first by the Soviets and now by the US, back to the Stone Age. Karzai has no political locus standi to speak for Afghanistan, a country with which Pakistan has traditionally had fraternal relations, and for which it has made invaluable sacrifices over the decades when it was under foreign military occupation and even when it was going through its own fratricidal civil war.
In the 1990s, Pakistan under a civilian elected government, not only continued to look after millions of Afghan refugees, but also actively facilitated intra-Afghan reconciliation paving the way for a broad-based and multi-ethnic political dispensation. Efforts were made to persuade the warring factions to resolve their differences through dialogue and mutual accommodation. The Islamabad Accord signed by all the Afghan parties in 1991 remains a testimony to Islamabad’s commitment to a genuine peace process in Afghanistan.
Even when the Taliban were in power, Pakistan, again under an elected government, continued its efforts to bring about a negotiated solution to the Afghan conflict. In 1997 and 1998, it was involved in an intensive diplomacy to find a political settlement that would bring about a broad-based and multi-ethnic and truly representative government in Afghanistan.
But those efforts never succeeded because people like Karzai remained averse to any peaceful reconciliation. On its part, the world community showed utter disregard for the future of this country which paid a heavy price as the last battlefront of the Cold War. The UN Security Council was used to punish Taliban-controlled Afghanistan through economic and other sanctions which not only prolonged the conflict in Afghanistan but also ostracised Taliban in a manner that only strengthened their linkages with terrorist outfits, and provided an ideal breeding ground for global terrorism and extremism.
Indeed, the Afghans are not the only victims of the on-going tragedy, in that country. Pakistan as the key front-line state in the Afghan war suffered irreparably in multiple ways in terms of refugee influx, socio-economic burden, rampant terrorism and protracted conflict in its border areas with Afghanistan. It continues to suffer heavily as it remains engaged in a full-scale war against its own people in Waziristan. And yet Karzai says we are not doing enough.
For President Musharraf, the option is clear. He seems to have travelled too long down the “Yellow Brick Road to the Land of Oz, and like Dorothy Gale should now say goodbye to the wicked witch in silky robe, and ask the Wizard of Oz to let him return home in peace and with dignity”. To be taken seriously beyond the Land of Oz, he should focus more on his own country’s domestic consolidation in keeping with the wishes of his people by restoring genuine and civilian democracy and constitutional supremacy. He must realise that his time with Comedian Jon Stewart’s Daily Show is now up.
The writer is a former foreign secretary.