Iraqis frustrated with US presence, persistent violence
By Jim Lobe
WASHINGTON: Iraqis, especially the majority Shias, are increasingly angry and frustrated about their situation and impatient for US troops to leave, but most do not believe their country will fall apart, according to a major new poll released here by the University of Maryland’s Programme on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA).
Seventy-one per cent of the 1,150 randomly selected respondents interviewed for the survey in early September said they wanted all US and coalition forces to leave Iraq within the next year, with more than half of them calling for the withdrawal to be completed within six months.
Moreover, nearly four in five respondents said they believed that the US military in Iraq is “provoking more conflict than it is preventing”, while nearly 61 per cent said they approved of attacks on US-led forces, an increase of 14 per cent compared to the last PIPA survey of Iraqi public opinion eight months ago.
Among the three main communal groups— Shias, Sunnis and Kurds — the biggest jump in negative opinion toward US forces came from the Shias, who comprise roughly 60 per cent of the Iraq’s population.
Nearly two of every three Shias said they approved of attacks on US-led forces, compared to 41 per cent last January, just after a coalition of Shia parties swept to victory in parliamentary elections. At that time, only 22 per cent of Shia respondents favoured a US withdrawal within six months. The percentage has now risen to 36 per cent, according to the PIPA poll.
The new survey, which to some extent mirrors the reported findings of a State Department-commissioned poll leaked to the Washington Post on Wednesday, comes amid intensifying debate between most Democrats who favour setting a timeline for withdrawing forces and President George W. Bush and Republican loyalists who say that such a strategy would invite disaster.
That debate has been fuelled in recent days by the disclosure of a classified “National Intelligence Estimate” (NIE) — the consensus position of Washington’s 16 national intelligence agencies. Among other conclusions, it found that the US invasion and occupation of Iraq have become a “cause celebre” for jihadists worldwide and fuelled the growth and spread of terrorism and Islamic radicalism.
The administration, which was forced to declassify parts of the NIE under pressure from Democrats on Tuesday, has also acknowledged that another NIE on Iraq— a draft version of which was described as “grim” by one source— is under preparation.
But the White House said it is not scheduled for completion until January, a timetable that has provoked protests from Democrats who believe that its conclusions are almost certain to stoke public anger here with the Iraq war and, if released before the elections, help them win control of at least one house of Congress.
The State Department poll, which was conducted from late June to early July, reportedly found that majorities of respondents in all regions of Iraq, except Kurdistan, said that the withdrawal of US-led forces would “make them feel safer and decrease violence” and that nearly two out of three respondents favoured an immediate departure.
The 71 per cent majority who told PIPA they want a withdrawal within one year underlined a “growing sense of urgency” on the part of Iraqis, according to PIPA director Steven Kull, who noted that last January, 70 per cent of respondents said they favoured withdrawal within two years.
The only group that shows less eagerness for the military to leave are Sunnis, who comprise about 20 per cent of the total population and have been most resistant to the US occupation and unhappy with the Shia-dominated government. The percentage of Sunnis who favour withdrawal within six months has dropped from 83 per cent to 57 per cent, although nine in 10 Sunnis still say they want US troops out within a year.
Four out of five Iraqis, including 96 per cent of Sunnis and 87 per cent of Shias, say the US is having a negative influence on the situation in Iraq, according to the poll, which found that Kurds still believe Washington’s influence is positive by a 48-34 per cent margin.
If, as most Democrats have urged, the US made a commitment to withdraw from Iraq according to a specific timeline, 53 per cent of respondents said they believed that would strengthen the Iraqi government, as opposed to only 23 per cent who said they though it have the opposite effect.
“Basically, because US forces are there, the Iraqi government doesn’t really have the legitimacy it might have,” suggested Kull, who noted growing confidence, particularly on the part of Shias, that Iraqi security forces will have become strong enough within the next six months to handle security challenges on their own.
Growing impatience with the US military presence was also reflected in the strong approval among both Sunnis and Shias for attacks on US-led forces, which Kull called “the most disturbing finding” of the new survey.—Dawn/IPS News Service
