RIYADH, Sept 23: As the Opec oil ministers opted in the historic and picturesque Hofburg Palace in Vienna to rollover their current output quota -- rather nervously -– for another term, a very engrossing, encompassing and interesting debate was raging on the side lines and the entire energy fraternity was passionately involved.

With the Saudi prosperity almost solely dependent on the cash flows from crude sales, Saudi oil wizards told the energy world that beneath the deserts of Saudi Arabia, there lied enough oil for more than 140 years at current output levels.

With the pronouncement, the oil era has been given a new lease of life. Until now many had thought the current oil based civilisation to last at most for another 40-50 years. And 140 more years mean the worries of the energy world are baseless -– at least in the medium-term.

At the historic Hofburg Palace, Saudi Aramco chief executive Abdullah S. Jum’ah forcefully argued before a select gathering about the longevity of the oil era, setting aside all the arguments about the imminent end of the oil era. Admitting though in a very conspicuous manner that crude remains a finite source, and none can indeed argue it, he emphasised the world has tapped only a small portion, than previously thought, of this precious natural resource.

Speaking before industry experts in Vienna, Mr Jum’ah vehemently argued, “the world has consumed only about 18 per cent of its conventional potential” of the totally ‘producible’ of 5.7 trillion barrels of oil. And he stressed: “We are looking at more than 4.5 trillion barrels of potentially recoverable oil (still to be recovered).” He added that extracting ‘every last economic barrel’ was challenging but not impossible and exhorted the industry leaders to step up exploration and ‘leave the minimum amount of oil in the ground’. In the process Mr Jum’ah shred apart the theory that the global crude supplies are in danger of running out within a few decades. He emphasised, the facts speak to the contrary.

Mr Jum’ah had indeed reasons for his optimism. Saudi Arabia is under explored, every one agrees. And hence the potential is immense. He thus argued that over the next 25-30 years, the kingdom could add another 200 billion barrels to its recoverable reserves. And others also concurred with him on the issue.

Applying new technology to unearth the last drop of possible oil from the earth and increase recovery rates appears today the key to keeping the world well oiled, he argued. Technology could indeed go a long way in making exploration costs lower, thus making the otherwise uneconomical assets productive and feasible, he deduced. And when Mr Jum’ah says something he speaks with a sense of authority and responsibility. After all he is the caretaker of the world’s largest crude reserve.

Mr Jum’ah’s assertions were followed by similar remarks from Exxon chief executive Rex Tillerson too who emphasised before the select audience that there was no dearth of resources. “The era of easy oil is not over, because there has never been easy oil,” Tillerson argued.

However, as Jum’ah and Exxon Mobil CEO were putting across reasons after reasons to reassure the jittery energy fraternity saying the much feared ‘oil peak’ was not to be encountered soon, in our lifetimes at least, many were still far from convinced.

Kenneth Deffeyes, a leading peak-oil theorist from Princeton University, sees nothing that could shake his conviction about the imminent end of the oil era. On the contrary, he said he could point to the precise month when global crude production peaked -- December, 2005. Indeed the pointing was based on Hubbert’s Peak theory that correctly forecast in 1956 that the US conventional oil production would begin to decline in the early 1970s.

"This is 99-per-cent physical; one-per-cent economics," he said in an interview. "There is only so much oil in the ground and we have now reached the peak of productive capacity." Prof Deffeyes noted that data from the US Energy Information Administration indicates world crude oil production peaking at 85.1 million barrels a day last December and then declining to 84.3 million barrels last June.

He appeared unfazed by the EIA forecasts of oil production growing up to 102 million barrels a day by 2030, dismissing it outrightly. "I work from facts contained in the data, not from fantasies in forecasts."

Though the peak-oil theorists are undeterred by the price slide, the fact remains that governments and the broader public may lose interest in the theory if prices settle back into a more comfortable range.

In the wake of the currently raging debate in the United States, the Department of Energy has asked the National Petroleum Council, an industry information group, to investigate peak-oil claims. The council launched a study that includes different industries and environmental groups. It will survey existing studies and examine why they differ on how much oil and gas the world holds and what the response should be.

In Australia too, a senate committee has concluded that the government there should plan for an imminent decline in world oil production, while Sweden hopes to end its oil dependency by 2020.

James Williams, a veteran energy economist at WTRG Economics Inc, said the peak-oil theorists make a legitimate point -- over the long-term.

"There is only so much oil in the ground," Mr Williams said. He added, however, that higher prices -- even if they fall back to $50 -- will allow crude oil deposits that have not been counted as potential reserves to be commercially exploited. "The estimate of reserves is a moving target," he said. "If you double the price, you automatically increase reserves."

However, there is a third dimension to this entire debate, that of finding a middle way, away from the black and white scenario. Presenting his argument in the very Hofburg Palace, Ambassador Arne Walther, secretary-general of the Riyadh-based International Energy Forum Secretariat, characterised the ‘new energy era’ in a contrasting perspective. “The new energy era is of heightened energy consciousness around the world, with increasing uncertainties and growing interdependencies among nations,” he pleaded before the select gathering. With national policies ‘being tuned to energy demands and uncertainties of today and tomorrow, new uncertainties are being created in the process’, he argued, leaving the comity of nations with no alternative but to interact more on energy issues for a common better future.

The debate hence lingers on. The fact though remains the world is not going to be out of economically viable crude sooner. One could definitely argue the exact time frame of this ultimate eventuality to happen, yet in the medium-term there is no shortage and especially so if the assurance comes form none other than the Saudi Aramoc CEO. The world has to give credence to what Mr Jum’ah sees through his Crystal Ball.