LAHORE, Sept 22: Are opposition legislators belonging to the MMA and the ARD really serious in tendering resignations? Are the two major groupings willing to form a grand alliance and launch a potent movement against the present setup, which is about to complete four years? Or, are the opposition alliances trying to outwit each other?

These are some of the questions under discussion at various forums, but nobody is in a position to come up with solid answers. One of the major reasons is that the religious alliance keeps changing its stand, making the six-party conglomerate the most unpredictable entity.

One is reminded here of a meeting of the heads of the ARD parties which was in progress at a London hotel earlier, on July 2, when a phone started ringing. Mr Iqbal Zafar Jhagra, secretary-general of both the ARD and its second most important component PML-N, had received an SMS.

“Colleagues, I have received a message from Pakistan that the Jamaat-i-Islami amir Qazi Husain Ahmed has collected resignations from all his party legislators”, Jhagra had told the participants, who were all ears for the leader from Peshawar. Many saw the message as a harbinger to a change the opposition parties were struggling to bring about. The content was as important as the timing the sender had chosen.

The MMA knew that the London meeting would be in the headlines the following day and it had taken a calculated step to get its due share of the front pages of the newspapers by sending the said SMS. The one-day ARD meeting concluded after deciding to quit the assemblies (for which no timeline had been set) and urging political parties of all shades of opinion to shun differences and form an alliance to rid the country of the dictatorial system.

A few weeks later, MMA Secretary-General Maulana Fazlur Rehman flew in to London and held a prolonged meeting with the exiled former prime minister Nawaz Sharif and other leaders of his party. The PML-N leaders wanted to discuss the formation of a grand alliance and a movement against the present rulers.

The MMA leader started off with a complaint that the MMA had not been taken into confidence as the Charter of Democracy(CoD) was signed. The CoD was little besides admission of mistakes the PML-N and the PPP had committed during their two stints each in power and their resolve not to repeat them in the future, argued one of the participants. Since the MMA had made no such mistake, there was no need to make it a party to the CoD, he said.

The MMA secretary-general was happy that the PML-N had cleared the religious alliance of any wrongdoing. Then came under discussion the question of removing Gen Musharraf. Fazlur Rehman asked if the ARD wanted to oust Musharraf and bring in Ms Benazir Bhutto who was not satisfied with the manner the general was thrashing the religious alliance. Ms Bhutto, he said, wanted the US to give her a bigger stick so that she could teach the mullahs an unforgettable lesson.

The PML-N leaders assured the MMA secretary-general that they would be willing to support him in forming a government as a result of the polls. The two sides agreed to form a grand alliance. However, the MMA leader said, he would make an announcement in this regard on his return to Pakistan and after taking Qazi Husain Ahmed into confidence. He also asked Mr Sharif to talk to Qazi Husain as well on the subject.

A grand alliance has not come into being because of the reservations expressed by the PPP. Ms Benazir Bhutto wants the ARD and the MMA to work from their separate platforms towards a shared goal. There is no flexibility in the PPP’s stance on this.

The ARD and the MMA have put up separate candidates for the provincial PP-157 (Lahore) by-election, which is due to be held on Sept 30. In case the opposition votes are divided, the ruling party will be the gainer.

The MMA has been shifting its stand on the question of resignations. First it indicated that it would quit the assemblies for the sake of the Constitution and democracy. But after the killing of Akbar Bugti, it appeared as if the religious alliance would leave the Balochistan coalition. The Jamaat-i-Islami demanded that the MMA should part ways with the coalition. However, the JUI-F refused to do so. A meeting of the MMA’s supreme council, in a paradigm shift, decided to link the issue of resignations to the bill the government introduced to make amendments to the Hudood Ordinances.

The government handled the issue of the controversial bill in a way that the MMA could not get an excuse to quit the assemblies. And since the bill is pending and the National Assembly session has been prorogued, the religious parties are not expected to throw away their assembly seats in a hurry and for the stated reason. The latest position is that the MMA has announced that its legislators will not resign unless all opposition parties merge into a grand alliance.

“Har lehza Hai momin ki nayee shaan, nayee aan” (The real Muslim touches new heights every second), a political observer said sarcastically, quoting Allama Iqbal, on the ever-changing stand of the religious parties. The allama must be turning in his grave on the conduct of the ‘momin’ of the present day.

In the final anaylysis, thus far, neither the political parties are likely to merge themselves into a grand alliance nor will the MMA have to quit their seats. A public meeting held by the ARD in Quetta a few days ago must be instructive in this regard. Initially, it was decided that all opposition parties would take part in the meeting where the killing of Nawab Akbar Bugti would be the main subject. But a day before the meeting, the MMA was requested by the ARD to stay away — although the former would have found difficult to exonerate the Balochistan government.

Thus, when the ARD and the MMA cannot hold even a joint public meeting, how will a grand alliance come into being, and why would anybody have to quit the assembly?