September 12, 2006	Tuesday	Sha'aban 18, 1427

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PESHAWAR, Sept 11: A World Bank study says that around 56.2 per cent of people in Pakistan run the high risk of falling in poverty as a large number of rural households and children under the age of 15 years may fall into poverty trap in the next few years.

Sources said that the findings of the World Bank’s recent vulnerability profile of Pakistan make part of a federal government document which necessitated the formulation of social protection programme and policies to focus on the most vulnerable segments of the population.

The government’s recently compiled ‘draft social protection strategy for Pakistan’ pinpoints the need for the country to have an effective social protection policy to protect large segments of the society most vulnerable to fall below the poverty line in the next few years.

Justifying the need to put in place an elaborate social protection mechanism and policy for the country, the draft strategy said: “One in four Pakistanis is poor and one in every two is vulnerable to experiencing poverty in near future.”

The strategy had based its argument on the findings of the World Bank’s recently conducted study, which said: “The analysis finds that 56.2 per cent of the population in Pakistan face a greater than 50 per cent probability of finding themselves in poverty in the next few years.”

The Bank’s study distinguishes between the vulnerable — those with a high probability to find themselves in poverty in the near future and the non-vulnerable.

Referring to the 56.2 per cent of the population with more than 50 per cent probability of finding themselves in poverty in next few years, the World Bank has pointed that “within this vulnerable group, some already in poverty (32.5 per cent of the population), while others are currently not poor”.

Drawing an analysis of the situation, the World Bank’s assessment maintains that the number of people exposed to get poor reflects two significant aspects, first that ‘vulnerability to poverty is widely spread in Pakistan’, and second that the ‘current poor are particularly vulnerable to remaining stuck in poverty’.

According to the study, 21.9 per cent of the population are currently poor and also predicted to be poor in the near future as they are chronically poor and vulnerable.

Children under the age of 15 years have been described as vulnerable with high rates of chronic or persistent vulnerability as, according to the study, a high proportion of vulnerable children in the 5-9 years age group are not enrolled at schools (63.2 per cent of the vulnerable and 72.9 per cent of the chronically vulnerable).

Similarly, some seven million children belonging to 10-14 years age group are not enrolled in schools as a result of which they are most likely to be poor. Pointing out that one in every six children in Pakistan — estimated 2.5 million — are working, the study mentions that the incidence of child labour is higher among the chronically vulnerable, as one in four children in this category is in work.

Other than children, rural household with low levels of assets/land have also been described as the ones most vulnerable to get poor. In this respect, the assessment contains that lack of assets together with unemployment and under-employment are the key sources of vulnerability in rural areas.

“Poverty and vulnerability are a significant issue in Pakistan as they affect a large proportion of the population and have, in all likelihood, persistent impact upon the productive capacity, well being of the poorest household,” says the draft strategy.

It pinpoints that higher economic growth rate, for the last few years, has created a measure of fiscal space which led to create realisation in the government of the need to effectively tackle poverty and vulnerability.

In this respect, it says that economic growth will generate opportunities for poor and vulnerable households to overcome their situation. However, it also asks for pro-active interventions and the need to formulate policy to make sure that the less fortunate members of the society are able to participate in the growth and development process and enjoy the benefits of the economic growth.

It has put forth several recommendations and suggested improvements under the zakat and food support programme to make the best use of the already available resources as well as necessitated the need to allocate greater funds to cater the financial needs of the targeted segments of the population.

“There is currently no overarching social protection strategy in Pakistan, this leads to lack of direction and poor coordination on the part of individual agencies and programmes working in this area,” the draft strategy said and added: “The total government spending on social protection, which is 0.5 per cent of Gross Domestic Product, is low by international standards and inadequate to meet existing need.”