LONDON: Gordon Brown will be pressed to chart a different foreign policy course from Tony Blair to win back voters put off by the unpopular campaigns waged by the prime minister, who the Scottish politician hopes to succeed.
The British electorate traditionally places foreign policy low on its priorities but Blair — now fending off rebellion over his leadership — has seen his popularity plunge over controversial international moves in the past three years.
Many Labour Party members see Blair as an electoral liability and too close to US President George W. Bush.
Legislators say they believe voters have been alienated by Blair sending troops to Iraq, his refusal to call for an immediate ceasefire during the war in Lebanon and his failure to persuade Washington to push Israel towards peace with the Palestinians.
But Brown has been largely quiet on the subject of foreign policy, leaving observers few clues from which to piece together his likely strategies.
International affairs experts say Brown should take decisive action to reassure voters, in particular Britain’s Muslims, who say Britain’s foreign policy has compromised its standing in the Islamic world and made it more vulnerable.
“Iraq is now a breeding ground for terrorists, British troops are sustaining casualties and we have a very adverse profile right across the Middle East,” said Patrick Dunleavy, political science professor at the London School of Economics.
“We have a substantial Muslim population of our own. There’s no doubt we’ve created a substantial domestic problem that’s not likely to go away for a very long time.”
The core issue is London’s relationship with Washington.
“Brown must show the Americans they can deal with (him) like they did Tony Blair but show the British this is a prime minister who isn’t going to be George Bush’s poodle,” said Mark Gill, head of political research at polling firm Ipsos MORI.
On Friday Brown gave strong backing to the United States in an article in popular tabloid the Sun, suggesting those hoping for a significant tilt away from Washington will be disappointed.
A PR-savvy move for Brown as prime minister would be to hold his first meeting with UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan rather than Bush, some analysts said. But the 55-year-old Scot, known for his pro-American and Eurosceptic leanings, should not be expected to neglect Britain’s alliance with the United States.
“In terms of social policy and economics, Brown’s taken more policies from the United States than from Europe. What he mustn’t do is be seen as anti-American because that would open up a flank the Conservative Party could exploit,” Gill said.
To Brown’s advantage, he would only have to deal with Bush for around a year and a half before the US presidential election. While some analysts said that would give him a chance to pull British troops out of Iraq, others said he was unlikely to do that having been part of the government that sent them in.
Instead he could argue that he is helping to solve the crisis there by keeping British troops on the ground as long as the Iraqi government says it needs them.
But Iraq may colour his policies over future interventions. Analysts believe he will pursue a diplomatic path with Iran rather than considering military strikes should Washington opt for them as a way of preventing Iran building a nuclear bomb.
US Ambassador to London Robert Tuttle said that contrary to the view held by many Britons, their prime minister did wield influence with the United States, including on the Iran issue.
“There is huge influence and great attention being paid to what is being said here,” he said at a Reuters event this week. On Iran, he said: “Some of the changes in our position are a result directly of the exchanges going back and forth.”
Brown may also have to take Washington on over the Israeli-Palestinian question.
Blair’s refusal to condemn Israel’s invasion of Lebanon — its response to capturing of two Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah guerrillas — shocked many people who saw it as evidence he was personally siding with America to leave the Israelis more time for military action.
“Brown would have to shift British policy towards a more visibly even-handed approach when it comes to the Israeli-Palestinian question,” said David Mepham, head of the international unit at the Institute for Public Policy Research.
“To gain credibility in the Muslim world ... Brown would need to be more critical of Israeli policy than Blair has been and more upfront about what needs to happen to establish a Palestinianstate.”—Reuters
