Israeli PM likely to survive Lebanon, scandals for now
By Dean Yates
JERUSALEM: Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s political future is not as wretched as it looks. Despite calls for his resignation over the Lebanon war, a series of government scandals and the shelving of his centrepiece plan to reshape the occupied West Bank, most political analysts expect Olmert to survive — for now.
For starters, there is no alternative leader waiting in the wings, inside or outside Olmert’s centrist Kadima party.
Right-wing parties appalled at the army’s failure to crush Hezbollah do not have enough parliamentary seats to force Olmert out. Virtually no one wants new elections so soon after polls in March. And Olmert is still a savvy politician.
“The chances Olmert will continue to be prime minister for at least more than a year, that he is not going to resign in a few weeks or a few months, are really higher than any other scenario,” said Abraham Diskin of Jerusalem’s Hebrew University.
“People like Olmert have had street battles in dark alleys more than once. They are very, very tough people.”
In the latest blow to his standing, Israel’s top government watchdog on Monday raised suspicions of political cronyism over appointments Olmert made while industry and trade minister in 2004. Olmert’s office denied any wrongdoing.
That follows an investigation into a real estate deal Olmert made in 2004 and sex scandals involving other top officials.
But the main reason Olmert is in trouble is Lebanon.
Israelis, who overwhelmingly backed the war, have lamented the army’s inability to destroy Hezbollah after the guerillas seized two soldiers in a cross-border raid on July 12 and then rained 4,000 rockets on northern Israel in the ensuing conflict.
Many fear the Jewish state lost its capacity to deter aggression in the region. One poll showed 63 per cent of Israelis want Olmert to quit.
But a political strategist who has worked with Olmert in the past brushed off such numbers and said the prime minister had appeared confident about his future in a recent conversation.
“There is no one who you can see through the polls who might be considered the saviour of the nation,” said the strategist.
Something that could shape Olmert’s future is the type of commission he establishes to investigate the conduct of Israel’s 34-day war in Lebanon.
He is expected to announce soon whether he will order a powerful state inquiry or a commission with less teeth.
A state inquiry would be overseen by a retired judge, hold public hearings and issue recommendations that, while not binding, could force top officials to step down.
“I think he understands this is the slippery slope to resignation,” said Shlomo Avineri, a former foreign ministry director-general and now at the Hebrew University.
However, such an inquiry lasts many months, by which time Israel might be fighting a new war with Hezbollah. Or Olmert may have found an agenda to replace his plan to unilaterally impose final borders with the Palestinians if peace talks stay frozen.
Olmert was elected in March on a platform of replicating last year’s popular uprooting of Jewish settlers from the Gaza Strip by carrying out a bigger withdrawal in the West Bank.
The Lebanon war and renewed conflict with guerillas in Gaza has buried that proposal, leaving Olmert and Kadima with little clear agenda apart from rebuilding rocket-hit northern Israel.
“I believe that if Mr Olmert is not able to, very very soon, find a new agenda for his government then he is going to fall,” said Yossi Beilin, leader of the opposition Meretz party.
But even opposition politicians such as Beilin acknowledge there is little stomach for new elections.
Having only won their parliamentary seats several months ago, most lawmakers want to keep them a bit longer.
“This coalition is not as shaky as you might believe,” said Cameron Brown, an analyst at Israel’s Herzliya Centre.
“While people may want blood and may want someone to pay the price, there is a big difference... with having new elections.”
Olmert could try to deflect the criticism by sacking Defence Minister Amir Peretz, who is even more unpopular than himself.
The problem is that Peretz heads the Labour party, the senior partner in Olmert’s coalition government.
“Right now they depend too much on each other,” said Diskin.—Reuters
