KARACHI, July 28: The political uncertainty that prevails following the decision by Muttahida Qaumi Movement to quit the government, has created a lot of confusion in Sindh about how to carry on the routine affairs of the provincial government in the absence of quite a large number of ministers and advisers.
While the resignations are pending an action, the MQM ministers and advisers have stopped attending their offices, crippling the entire state machinery. At Sindh secretariat, official work came to a halt on Friday with government officials and employees exchanging views on a future boss and fate of the Arbab government.
The uncertainty has generated rumours about a law and order situation especially after MQM chief, in his telephonic speech on Thursday night, made it clear that his partymen were ready to endure whatever could be resorted to in the event of a ‘break’ if the ongoing efforts to ‘make’ failed.
The outcome of President Musharraf’s intervention to ensure ‘amity’ within the PML and the ruling coalition in Sindh was taken as positive until a release, dubbed as leak, from the Chief Minister’s House reversed the impression and provoked an outrage from the MQM leadership in the shape of its decision to surrender ministries.
Political circles do not rule out a tense relationship between MQM and other coalition partners if the reservations expressed by the MQM are not addressed effectively and the amity between them restored to the level it was at the formation of the Sindh coalition. They are of the view that such a settlement even at this juncture might have been possible had there been complete harmony in the file and rank of the PML. But the ground reality is on the contrary, they observe, indicating that grouping has divided PML in several factions, the biggest one of them being led by Dr Arbab Ghulam Rahim. The grouping has not only disturbed Dr Arbab as the provincial chief of his party, but also unnerved him as the chief minister at a time when the MQM’s has posed a serious threat to his leadership.
The formation of ‘forward bloc’ within the PML has dealt a severe blow to the PML high command’s ongoing mediation efforts. PML Secretary General Mushahid Hussain had to visit Sindh again to prevent further damage coming to the provincial chapter, as well as the Sindh coalition.
Although the MQM intends to continue sitting on treasury benches even after surrendering portfolios, the PML and its other allies would naturally not feel comfortable either at the in-session assembly or in the cabinet.
The PML and its allies form the biggest group with 101 members in the house of 168. The MQM has 42, PML-Q 38, PML-F 16 and PPP-Patriot has five members in the Assembly. Formed within the PML-Q, the ‘forward bloc’ has 20 members and they are led by Mehar brothers.
The party position shows that the Arbab government might not survive if the MQM decided to move to opposition benches.
Analysts believe that the chief minister is not likely to succeed in regaining support of the forward bloc which has even turned down President Musharraf’s advice to eschew groupings within the party and maintain its weight behind the party’s provincial chief. “No more talks with the chief minister on our grievances,” appeared to be its response.
According to analysts, at this stage where Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz faces a no-confidence motion from the opposition, the only thing to be decided by the managers of the provincial set up is to please one man (Dr Arbab) at the cost of party unity and Sindh coalition, or convince him to make a sacrifice.
