July 19, 2006	Wednesday	Jumadi-ul-Sani 22, 1427

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LAHORE, July 18: Unlike the Met office forecast, the city received rain on Tuesday that was coupled with strong winds and was particularly heavy around the airport.

The Met office on Monday had forecast dry weather in the city. It happened otherwise because of “ignoring percentage forecasting” that defined actual chances of weather pattern in scientific terms.

Interestingly, Chief Minister Pervaiz Elahi had launched the mega project of software technology park in the four walls of his secretariat instead of its site on Ferozepur Road some times ago because of the reported Met office forecast of rain which never came.

Chief Meteorologist Shaukat Awan said there was no rain generating system. And the downpour was generated only over Lahore because of the accentuation of the inflow of moisture from the Arabian Sea during the previous night and on Tuesday morning. “It was a local phenomenon occurred after the forecast was issued,” he said.

The rain started at around 1pm and within around 45 minutes it inundated streets and low lying areas, hampering the flow of traffic. The Met office recorded 11mm of rain at its Jail Road observatory and 25mm at the airport. The maximum temperature was 37 degrees C and the minimum 28.8 degrees C with 64 per cent humidity in the morning and 71 per cent in the afternoon.

Investigations revealed that the Pakistan Meteorological Department daily issued two different forecasts in Lahore —- one by its flood forecasting division and another by the local Met department which sometimes differ because of the occasional lack of coordination between the two bodies, and the difference of time of their issuance by them.

Officials said the FFD monitored regional weather during monsoon for finding out chances of flood generating rains in the country and the catchments of all major rivers. On the contrary, the local Met office in the city read weather patterns mainly for aviation purposes. Forecasts for cities were issued in Islamabad.

The FFD monitored weather through its network of radars and satellite pictures whereas the Met office did it again through satellite messages and synoptic charts regularly made by its officials 24 hours a day.

“The occasional difference in the forecasts between the two wings is that the FFD gives its findings in the morning and the Met office at 5pm. And the forecast published in newspapers and the actual happenings differ due to lack of percentage forecasting. They ignore how many chances are for rain or dry weather and if they take this into consideration, there will be less chances of mistakes,” a senior Met official said.

To explain the reason for rain on Tuesday, Mr Awan said there was no westerly wave or westerly current from the Bay of Bengal on Monday. The influx of moisture from the Arabian Sea was erratic but it increased after the Met office issued the forecast, creating a cell of clouds over Lahore that gave rain only over an area of eight to 10kms.

There was no rain anywhere else in the country and the spell of downpour which was limited to only in Lahore lasted for just 30 minutes, Mr Awan said, adding that it was mainly dry over the upper and lower catchments of all rivers.

There could be local rain against the Met office expectations, but there had never been any misjudgment of any major rain generating system, especially during monsoon. because it means ignoring flood situations, he said.

He agreed that percentage forecasting could make local forecasts more accurate, and cover the loopholes in the present system.

To define the existing meteorological situation, he said a monsoon low, which was fizzling out over Indian Madhya Pradesh, could give little rain in Lahore during the next 24 hours, and there were no chances of widespread rain in the country at present.

The local Met office expected a few thunderstorm and rain over Rawalpindi, Gujranwala and Lahore divisions during the next 24 hours.