If exports must increase

EXPORTS for the last financial year are now estimated at $16.4 billion against a $17 billion target. Normally, such a shortfall should not be a cause for concern. But given the unsustainable trend in foreign trade, with exports outpaced by a massive rise in imports, the issue has become worrisome. Two areas of major concern surfaced last year. Growth slowed down from 20.9 per cent during July 2005-January 2006 to an average monthly rate of 10.5 per cent in February-May 2006.This sharp decline has also caused the trade deficit to surge to about $11 billion. Despite the doubling of export earnings over the past seven years, the export-GDP ratio is at a low 13 per cent and Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz wants it to be raised to 15 per cent. All this requires the policymakers to reappraise their strategy for exports whose growth is also subject to structural and cyclical factors. The withdrawal of the textile quota from January 1, 2005, has turned Europe and the United States into a saturated buyers’ market. Although textiles contributed over 61.4 per cent of the increase in exports last year, nearly 90 per cent of it was on account of the higher quantity of products. Exports have been hit by a falling unit value of key commodities.

Affected by the rising production costs and falling prices in western markets, the textile industry is seeking tax cuts, reduction in interest rates, subsidised gas and devaluation of the rupee to help exporters compete with India, China and Bangladesh. While the government has set up a task force to look into these issues, the State Bank has responded by cutting export finance from nine to 7.5 per cent. Pledging a fresh investment of some $7.75 billion over the next five years, the industry is looking forward to a relief package of some Rs50 billion. While the legitimacy of the source of the demands of the export-oriented industries cannot be denied, the government is not in a position to take on a substantial burden at this point in time. The long-term solution lies in improving entrepreneurial and workers’ skills to manufacture more value-added and quality products at competitive prices. Of course, the government also needs to try harder to provide them better access to foreign markets which are often restricted by anti-dumping duties or such developments as the loss of GSP benefits for textile exports to the EU. But experience shows that a stable exchange rate has helped boost exports more effectively than the heavy doses of devaluation which made the cost of investment in modernising the economy prohibitive.

As the prime minister has pointed out, there is a strong need to diversify exports. About 75 per cent of earnings come from five items: cotton and synthetic textiles, rice, leather and sports goods and 50 per cent of the export are accounted for by seven countries. The key issue facing exports is the production of export surpluses by diversifying the production base and improving industrial efficiency to manufacture value-added and quality goods at competitive prices for traditional and new markets. It is the job of the government to provide access to world markets, but it is for the industry to evolve effective market strategies and adopt aggressive salesmanship to boost exports. One hopes that the trade policy to be announced today will be part of a long- term strategy to make the economy more competitive so that it can face global challenges.

Effective flood relief

TIME is of the essence. Rivers in Punjab and the NWFP are swelling at a rapid rate and further increases are likely as the monsoon season gets in full swing. More rain is predicted in the catchment areas over the next few days and water levels at the two major dams, Tarbela and Mangla, are rising. Pakistan has a history of seasonal floods and there is nothing to suggest that this year will be an exception. Flood prevention, especially in these times of global climate change and erratic weather, can be a losing battle for even the most advanced countries. As such, the more important — and immediate — task is to minimise the consequences of floods through a strategy of quick response to the demands of evacuation of people from flood-affected areas to safe shelters. Flood management becomes all the more important considering that India, an upper riparian country, has the capacity to transfer flood surges to Pakistan.

In terms of damage control, what is of utmost importance is an effective flood-warning system coupled with evacuation and relief strategies that can be activated at short notice. Institutions and agencies such the Federal Flood Commission, National Flood Forecasting Division, Emergency Relief Cell, Wapda and Pakistan army will have to remain alert and watchful. Particular emphasis must be placed on giving advance notice to downstream communities before discharging large volumes of water from Tarbela and Mangla. In the north of the country, especially in areas affected by last year’s earthquake, natural dams created by landslides are a major flood-related worry. Riverine settlements in Sindh, which have moved closer over the years to a shrinking Indus, may require large-scale evacuation in the event of a sudden surge in water levels. Many flood victims will need medical care, food and temporary lodging, and it is important that provisions are in place well before a disaster strikes. Equally important is a well-organised and efficient distribution network. It is also important that aid is not limited to a one-off gesture, particularly in the case of the affected people who may have lost standing crops and grain stocks. They must all be taken good care of until the calamity is over and they are rehabilitated.

Flawed TV coverage

THAT the electronic media needs to know where to draw the line when breaking news was made amply clear, once again, during Friday’s coverage of Allama Turabi’s killing in Karachi. In their frenzied drive to be the first to flash the occurrence, some TV channels ignored sense and sensibility while showing live broadcast images of the blood and gore that was emanating from the scene of Mr Turabi’s assassination. The severed head of the alleged suicide bomber was repeatedly shown on the screen without realising the psychological effect of it on viewers. Perhaps this was unintentional on the part of the channel concerned, for in a hurry to break the news first, the reporter may not have known what was in the background — but its implications are disturbing. Such gory scenes, along with sensationalised reporting, can only heighten people’s sense of fear and panic. No one questions the TV viewer’s right to know and see what is happening but when media people lose a sense of balance and proportion covering events such as Friday’s tragic occurrence, the consequences can be unfortunate. It is tragic that an element of sensationalism, once restricted to the Urdu print media, has gradually crept into mainstream TV journalism as well. It calls for a commitment on the part of media owners to avoid all this and for regulatory bodies like Pemra to enforce a code of ethics that spells out the rules and principles to be observed in news coverage.

A recent study has shown that being exposed to violent images on TV, particularly acts of terrorism, increases the viewer’s risk of stress disorder. The other side of this argument, but one equally disturbing, is that such images can also numb the viewer. We are witnessing both scenarios. By adding to panic and hysteria, the electronic media is doing a great disservice to society whose values, norms and sensitivities need to be respected under all circumstances.

Pakistan’s politics: need for balance

IT seems that a culture of cynicism and disenchantment has developed in Pakistan over a period of time. One finds a great many people who are highly critical of practically everything they see around them. They believe that the Pakistani leaders are despotic and corrupt; our body politic is highly defective; all elections are fraudulent; the army, feudal families and the civil bureaucracy dominate public life; our economy is in a shambles; nothing works the way it should; and the country is going down in every possible way.

They also allege that political changes in the country are manipulated by the US; and our rulers take orders from Washington. Adverse comparisons are drawn with India and other countries. All of this inevitably creates a feeling of despondency and frustration that can only have long-term, deleterious effects for the country’s future.

Much of this criticism is politically motivated. Those out of power feel frustrated at their loss of perks and privileges. They seek to build up public discontent against the rulers by painting a totally negative picture of all developments. Their purpose is to stir up a countrywide agitation and secure a change of regime. These tactics did succeed in bringing down Ayub Khan and Bhutto.

Similarly, when Benazir was in power, Nawaz Sharif and others in opposition resorted to such tactics, and when Nawaz was in power, Benazir carried out a similar campaign. Ironically enough, even when such tactics succeeded, the new rulers soon found out that their opponents were resorting to the very same campaign of denigration and disinformation against them.

The present situation in Pakistan is no different. The opposition parties have been carrying on an intense negative campaign against President Pervez Musharraf. However, it is almost certain that if he goes and is replaced by either Nawaz or Benazir, or anyone else, the same vicious cycle will continue.

Apart from those who have political axes of their own to grind, such negative criticism also comes from some intellectuals who evidently think that taking pride in the country and its achievements is a sign of naivete and narrowmindedness. While they may be right in rejecting blind patriotism, which is the other side of the pendulum, the running down of the country merely to prove one’s objectivity of approach, is no less unfortunate. Then, there are some in our news media who think that the function of journalism is only to highlight the bad points of the government and society. There is the story of a journalist who came back to Pakistan after working abroad. He wrote several good stories but the editor kept rejecting them. On enquiry, he was told that in Pakistan only negative stories sell in the newspapers as the public is much more interested to read about wrongdoings, scams and scandals. Articles that give a positive account of events attract little public interest.

No doubt, there is much that is wrong with our society and with our governments. In particular, the cancer of corruption has grown over the years. Despite periodic purges, which are more often politically motivated, no government has been able to curb this menace. The law and order situation has also deteriorated over the years. The problems of unemployment and inflation badly hurt the poor. Illiteracy and social evils add to our woes. There are so may other problems as well.

However, while pointing out the defects in our society is a public service, an obsessive concentration on the bad points alone creates a distorted picture and leads to national demoralisation and despair. Clearly, there is need for a balanced and realistic approach but, hopefully, one with a soft corner for the country that has given us our national identity and so much else.

One way to judge matters in perspective is to evaluate the overall situation in Pakistan as compared to other countries in similar circumstances. Having spent nearly forty years in the foreign service and seen conditions in many parts of the world, one is perhaps in a position to make some comparisons. In all fairness, it must be said that Pakistan is a much more developed and far-better governed country than so many others around the world. In many Third World countries that gained freedom in the last 50 years or so, things have gone backward rather than forward since independence from colonial rule. For instance, in Zaire, there were 6,000 kilometres of metalled road at the time of independence that was down to 500 km, thirty years later.

Most of the Third World countries lack the basic infrastructure: roads, hospitals, schools, and amenities. Their shops are empty and hardly anything is available. Their system of government is despotic or dynastic, with scant regard for human rights.

In Pakistan, we have our problems and limitations, but we are still much better off than many comparable countries. Living standards in Pakistan today are definitely better than what they were in 1947 and this applies to the poorer sections of society as well. At the time of independence, the typical poor family had neither electricity nor running water, whereas these facilities are taken for granted today. Even the poorest people in Pakistan wear shoes and clothes and many possess watches, radios and even cell phones.

On the other hand, when I was posted in India in the late 1970s, I saw thousands of semi-naked, skeleton-like, poor people sleeping daily on footpaths. The conditions in Africa below the Sahara are far worse. That kind of abject poverty has never been seen in Pakistan.

From being a producer of raw materials at the time of independence, we are a medium-sized industrial power today. We have always had a higher per capita income than in India and most other countries in our region. In the 1960s, Pakistan was being cited as a model for development in the Third World. In the 1980s, the growth rate was well over six per cent, and it has been even higher in the last four years. In fact, it was India that took a cue from Pakistan in the 1990s and liberalised its economy and, since, then, its economic growth has picked up.

Our agriculture has done well. The main crops (wheat, rice, cotton, sugarcane) have more than quadrupled their production since independence. Our textile industry occupies a leading place in the world. Pakistani exports have gone up from less than one billion dollars in 1971 to nearly 17 billion dollars today.

Availability of goods, even in the remotest parts of Pakistan, is quite remarkable. The number of universities in Pakistan today and the annual output of scientists, engineers and doctors is many times more than in 1947. Pakistan is the only Islamic state to have become a nuclear power.

In fact, it is the unchecked growth of population that has eaten up much of our progress. The population was around 35 million in 1947 and is about 160 million today. Unless this fundamental problem is tackled, our woes will continue. Unfortunately, some of our religious leaders and parties seem totally blind to the compelling need to tackle this problem.

Many critics lament the imposition of dictatorship in Pakistan under one regime or another. Of course, oppressive rule in any form must be condemned. But dictators come in different hues. No dictatorial regime in Pakistan has ever killed thousands of people, like what happened in so many other countries. In the Soviet Union, millions were killed, tortured and sent into exile by Stalin. Even as late as the 1980s, when I served as Ambassador in Moscow, there was total censorship and a Soviet citizen needed a visa to travel from one city to another. Owning a cyclostyling machine was a punishable offence. There could be no expression of dissent.

Strikes were not allowed in the country that was supposed to be ruled by the workers. ‘Big brother’ was always watching. Once, my young children missed their transport from school and started to walk home and were thought to be lost. While efforts were being made to locate them, my Russian driver assured me, “Do not worry, no one ever goes missing in our country, as our authorities keep a watch over everybody!” In Pakistan, we have never had this kind of dictatorial rule.

The brutalities of Pol Pot in Kampuchea and Saddam Hussein in Iraq have been well documented. They killed and tortured thousands of their countrymen. In Iraq, it was not uncommon to punish a critic of the regime by cutting off his tongue and tying him to a lamppost in the street where he would bleed to death.

Along with these brutalities, there was the cult of personality. From the kindergarten onwards, children were taught to love Saddam who was considered infallible.

This kind of personality cult has also been seen in several other countries including Libya where Qadhafi has ruled with an iron hand for over three decades. No Pakistani dictator ever built any such cult of personality and our school children have never sung praises for the ruler.

President Musharraf is the fourth military chief to rule Pakistan. Though he seized power through a coup d’etat, and ruled with dictatorial powers till 2002, it is noteworthy that the amount of freedom enjoyed by the Pakistani news media during his rule has never before been seen in this country. The opposition political parties have functioned freely. Pakistani women have had far greater participation in public life than ever before. The local self-government institutions are also much more vibrant today than in the past.

(To be concluded)

The writer is a former ambassador.