July 11, 2006	Tuesday	Jumadi-ul-Sani 14, 1427

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RAWALPINDI, July 10: The areas of the NWFP and Azad Kashmir affected by the disastrous earthquake of last October are now likely to face potentially serious environmental hazards during the upcoming monsoon season.

Issuing a joint alert bulletin, The World Conservation Union (IUCN), The Worldwide Fund for Nature (WWF) and CARE International warned that the environmental hazards may assume alarming proportions during the monsoon season and trigger major landslides.

“It is a major threat to the lives and livelihoods of a large population. The cracks and unstable earth resulting from the earthquake may cause massive landslides and loss of life and agricultural land in the event of heavy or extended rains,” warn organisations dealing with environmental and humanitarian issues in their latest bulletin obtained by Dawn.

Quoting references, Dr David Petley of the University of Durham says “this is probably the greatest landslide threat worldwide at present. In the monsoon season, the combination of intense, prolonged rainfall and increasing groundwater levels presents a high risk of landslide disaster,” according to the bulletin.

Geo-technical scientists (landslide experts) working in the earthquake-affected areas have realised that slope stability issues were much more serious than originally estimated.

With monsoons due in mid July, when an average rainfall of 650mm could be expected in six weeks, it is highly likely that soil made heavy by absorbing water might trigger unstable slopes to slide down. The catastrophe has been prevented so far by the absence of heavy rains since the earthquake, says the alert bulletin.

The Geological Survey of Pakistan is in the process of identifying landslide threats in the area. However, so far, no comprehensive landslide hazard mapping and subsequent risk analysis has been conducted to cover the entire quake-affected area.

Moreover, no aerial photography is available at present, and neither any systematic stability analysis or ground investigation has been conducted on such slopes, the report says.

The AJK government and ERRA, based on preliminary studies, have plans to relocate some 55,000 earthquake survivors around Muzaffarabad to safer areas before the monsoon season. However, it is clear that while the authorities have a genuine concern, they are struggling to deal with this potential disaster.

Landslide experts have advised the local communities to stay away from the river beds because of the risk of flash floods to carefully observe large cracks on the hill slopes once the rainy season sets in, and keep the local authorities informed of any changes. Moreover, measures should be taken to divert runoff water from the cracks on unstable slopes. This needs to be done immediately, alert the three organizations.

With the monsoons, this is indeed a very challenging task. However, there is no alternative to a brisk action - for disaster preparedness and mitigation - if another human and environmental catastrophe is to be prevented, they said.