Rocky times ahead for Nepal: ‘Atmosphere of compromise’ missing
By Sam Taylor
KATHMANDU: With opposition parties and Maoist rebels calling for the continuation of anti-royal protests, Nepal faces its most dire crisis since the king assumed absolute control 14 months ago, analysts say.
The decade-long Maoist insurgency has crippled Nepal’s economy and has cost at least 12,500 lives.
Now a loose anti-royal alliance between the rebels and ousted opposition parties has further isolated King Gyanendra with almost a week of protests and strikes nationwide that make Nepal’s future look increasingly volatile.
Analysts say that unlike 1990, when violent protests led then King Birendra to agree to a constitutional monarchy and remain a popular titular head of state, the current crisis is not expected to end peacefully.
King Gyanendra, who assumed power after Birendra and the former royal family were gunned down by the crown prince in a 2001 palace massacre, is not expected to budge.
“There is no atmosphere of compromise in the present situation,” Rabindra Khanal, a political science professor at Nepal’s Tribhuvan University, told AFP.
“People are riled up and the king will not give up. He has his own roadmap to democracy, which is not acceptable to the political parties,” Khanal said.
With the stalemate making it increasingly grim for people to buy everyday items and work, many in the impoverished Himalayan nation are looking to an annual Nepali New Year speech by the king on Friday as the next step.
“The king’s speech on Friday will be significant,” said a senior Western diplomat on condition of anonymity.
“He only has two options, stick to his current course, which implies not making any concessions, which we hope he will not do. The other scenario is that on Friday he caves in, but that’s not very likely,” the diplomat said.
King Gyanendra has ignored strenuous international calls to restore democracy and reconcile with the political parties he sacked when he seized power on February 1 last year.
“An announcement on Friday that he is moving towards restoring democracy could save him and his dynasty,” said Kunda Dixit, editor of the English language weekly the Nepali Times.
Dixit’s newspaper recently held a poll of around 5,000 Nepalese from all walks of life across the country, and the findings showed that while most people still wanted a monarchy, they didn’t want King Gyanendra.
“Something like 70 per cent of the people said they wanted a monarchy, but that they don’t like this king. An added concern is that most of the young urban people polled don’t want a monarchy at all,” Dixit said.
But the diplomat said people were speculating that King Gyanendra will cling to power as he has the backing of the Royal Nepalese Army, which remains the key power broker.
“If the king sticks to his guns, then the fighting and the struggle will continue. This current clampdown could be reinforced by something much more rigorous such as the banning of the independent media and the control of the Internet,” the senior diplomat said.
Meanwhile, Maoists and political parties are talking about the possibility of a ceasefire, according to one analyst who requested anonymity.
Should a ceasefire be forthcoming, the impending disaster could be avoided, said Dixit.
“An optimistic outlook would be a Maoist ceasefire to which the government would be forced to match,” said Dixit.
“A negative scenario would be a major Maoist strike in the capital followed by emergency rule and then the country going the route of Burma. What will probably happen will be something in between the two,” Dixit said.—AFP
