TEHRAN: His uncompromising talk about Iran’s nuclear ambitions and calls for Israel’s destruction have caused alarm abroad, but at home Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad plays to packed rallies of supporters.
Since his shock election win last year, the blacksmith’s son and former Revolutionary Guard has toured the provinces to bolster support with speeches heavy on promises to create jobs and wipe out corruption, and spiced with nationalist fervour.
“Your government and your servants will not sleep as long as even one person is jobless in this country,” he told a rally in the southern city of Yasuj this month before pledging not to back down “one iota” over Iran’s right to nuclear technology.
Some reformists have questioned the handling of nuclear talks with the West since he took office and fellow conservatives have challenged his economic programme, but analysts say his popularity and support from revolutionary bodies has kept opposition relatively muted.
“His influence and popularity among the core constituency of the revolution and the government ... (has put him) in a situation where other figures cannot challenge him,” said political analyst Mahmoud Alinejad.
As well as drawing support from those struggling to make ends meet in the world’s fourth largest oil exporter, Ahmadinejad has the backing of the Basij, a militia that jealously guards Islamic revolutionary values.
The Basij, which analysts say numbers 10 million or more, gave Ahmadinejad vital votes in the June presidential election, when he emerged as winner after starting as a rank outsider.
Even with this support base, the president has limited powers in Iran’s ruling system where ultimate authority lies with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
But Ahmadinejad has used fiery rhetoric and sweeping changes in official posts to steer Iran on a more chauvinistic course abroad, brushing aside a fledgling detente with the West pursued by reformist former President Mohammad Khatami.
“He has been very clever. He has made an effort not to challenge the principle positions of the ruling system, but at the same time he has radicalised them,” said Alinejad.
Ahmadinejad’s tough talk over Iran’s nuclear plans, which Tehran says are peaceful, has wide appeal. Many Iranians link nuclear achievement to national pride, whoever is in power.
“He is riding the nuclear wave with great skill to bolster his popularity at home,” said Anoush Ehteshami, a leading Iran scholar at Britain’s Durham University.
He may also be betting that the United States is too bogged down in Iraq to contemplate seriously an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, an option Washington has kept open.
Some reformist opponents have challenged Ahmadinejad’s tactics in nuclear talks, if not on broad policy. They say the negotiating team in Khatami’s time at least kept the Iranian nuclear dossier away from the Security Council.
But reformists are still nursing their wounds after their drubbing in the presidential race when they were accused of ignoring the provinces and talking of political and social reforms that meant little to the hungry or jobless.
Ahmadinejad’s economic plans have been criticised in the conservative-dominated parliament. His budget received a rough ride and his choice of oil minister was blocked three times before a fourth was approved.
“The budget showed that there is division (among conservatives) and it is not plain sailing for him,” said Iran expert Baqer Moin. “It is too early to judge whether he has been able to deliver on his promises or not.”
After raising popular expectations, Ahmadinejad could be damaged by any failure to improve living standards.
Priming the economy from state coffers might fuel inflation and hurt the poor, analysts say, though for now sky-high oil prices provide a cushion of funds to keep his supporters happy.
