BEIJING: China and Russia tightened a strategic embrace this week when Russian President Vladimir Putin unveiled a clutch of energy deals in Beijing, but Moscow remains wary of drawing too near to its rising neighbour. “It’s a booming relationship, but starting from a very low point,” Bobo Lo, an expert on Russian foreign policy at Chatham House in London, said.
“Putin’s visit shows a much more business-like approach to relations, but there’s the paradox that the better the relationship becomes, the more Russians worry about China.”
Mr Putin and Chinese President Hu Jintao oversaw announcements of plans to pipe gas and possibly oil to China, as well as deals giving Russian firms access to their neighbour’s refining sector and Beijing a chance to explore for oil in Russia.
Gas monopoly Gazprom said it would sign a commercial agreement this year for a network eventually expected to send 60 to 80 billion cubic metres of gas across the border, with the first supplies flowing in 2010.
Mr Putin also hinted that China may be favoured in a race with Japan for a long-promised crude pipeline to the Pacific Rim, but stopped short of the firm promise Beijing hoped for.
China’s state-run press lauded Mr Putin’s two-day visit as a new peak in relations, which for decades were marred by political and territorial tensions that veered close to war.
The overseas edition of the People’s Daily, the Communist Party’s mouthpiece, said the two leaders’ speeches ‘took neighbourly friendship between China and Russia to a new high’.
Russia has welcomed growing trade with China, but Beijing’s growing military and economic power, and long-term influence in Russia’s sparsely populated east, continue to make many Kremlin policy-setters nervous, Lo said.
But Chinese analysts said their country’s courting of Russia is driven by pragmatic imperatives, especially as it seeks to secure energy supplies to fuel its rapid economic growth.
Flows from China’s mature major oilfields are peaking or in decline, and as its reliance on imports grows the government has scoured the globe for supplies outside the volatile Middle East.
BEYOND POSTURING: Mr Hu has vigorously lobbied Mr Putin, who showed tepid interest in China when he first became president. Last year the two leaders met four times, ending border disputes that have festered for decades and signing a sweeping diplomatic agreement.
Beijing appeared increasingly frustrated by Kremlin’s energy flip-flops, however, as promised deals languished despite the potential between Russia — the world’s second-largest producer of crude — and its booming neighbour.
“This was obviously a big step forward because of the specifics in the agreements,” said Zha Daojiong, an expert on energy diplomacy at the People’s University of China in Beijing.
“Relations are becoming more pragmatic, and both countries seem to have realised they need to move beyond posturing.”
But Russia has been playing off Beijing and Tokyo over their rival pipeline plans for several years, hoping to maximise their investments and to avoid over-dependence on China as its regional partner, said Mr Lo.
And it may still be open to counter bids from Japan.
“What Russia wants to do with the East Siberian oil pipelines is to keep all its options on the table as long as possible,” Mr Lo said.
Mr Putin made a high-profile trip to Tokyo late last year With officials from Gazprom and Rosneft, and pledged the pipeline would eventually supply Japan, as well as other Asian markets.
In energy and diplomacy, Russia remains much more closely wedded to Western Europe and the United States, said Mr Lo. Only about three per cent of Russia’s energy exports now flow to the Asia-Pacific, and Western powers loom much larger than China in Moscow’s view of the world, he said.
But recently Russian ties to the West have been strained by Moscow’s dispute with Ukraine over pricing, which also disrupted supplies to EU countries. Mr Putin’s firm grip on Russian politics and his country’s growing assertiveness in solving the Iran nuclear standoff have also frayed relations with Washington.
“Strengthening ties with China is intrinsically valuable, but with Russia a little unloved by the West, it’s also useful for Putin to play up the relationship with Beijing,” Mr Lo said. —Reuters
