BEIRUT: Despite its troop pullout from Lebanon, Syria still has the last word on whether pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud should heed calls for his resignation and on the choice of any successor, analysts say.
Lahoud, whose term was extended at Syria’s behest in 2004, has so far survived a concerted drive by Lebanon’s majority anti-Syrian coalition to remove him from power.
The anti-Lahoud campaign has stumbled partly because Lebanese factions have not agreed who should replace him and because the president still has support from Syria’s Shia allies, blocking any swift constitutional way to impeach him.
That leaves compromise with Syria as the most viable option.
“Emile Lahoud can’t be toppled without the consent of the Syrian president,” Nicola Nassif, a columnist at Beirut’s leading An-Nahar newspaper, told Reuters. “Syrian President Bashar al-Assad owns the head of Emile Lahoud.”
Anti-Syrian leaders who say Lahoud is a remnant of a fading era of Syrian tutelage had pledged to remove him by March 14.
But they failed to win over Shia Hezbollah politicians at a national dialogue conference called to tackle disputes over the ousting of Lahoud and the disarming of Hizbollah guerillas — two elements of a 2004 UN Security Council resolution.
While agreeing on less contentious issues like calling for full diplomatic ties with Syria and the disarming of pro-Syrian Palestinian fighters outside refugee camps, the leaders adjourned on Tuesday, saying only they would meet again on March 22 to discuss the “crisis of rule” in the country.
Anti-Syrian leaders said this showed there was a consensus about the need to replace Lahoud, while pro-Syrian participants said it was simply an agreement to more talks on the issue.
Several names have circulated as possible presidential candidates. They include former member of parliament Nassib Lahoud and current MP Boutrous Harb, both from the anti-Syrian camp, as well as Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh.
But each candidate — all Maronite Christians in line with Lebanon’s confessional system — appears to be unpopular with one or more factions.
Ironically, the factions that campaigned to end Syria’s influence in Lebanon still need Damascus if they are to topple Lahoud. They accuse him of blocking the work of the government formed after they won May/June parliamentary elections.
The anti-Syrian coalition is well short of the two-thirds majority in parliament needed to unseat Lahoud — a process that legislators could take up to eight months any way.
Reaching the threshold would require unlikely defections by deputies of the Syrian-backed Shia Amal and Hizbollah groups or by MPs loyal to Christian opposition leader Michel Aoun.
Political sources said Aoun would support Lahoud’s removal if he was chosen to succeed him, an improbable scenario given that Aoun is loathed by many in the anti-Syrian coalition.
Lahoud’s opponents could resort to street protests to force him to quit, but this could lead to clashes with pro-Syrian counter-demonstrations and plunge the country into choas.
So diplomacy could be a better option for the anti-Syrian coalition led by Saad al-Hariri, son of the assassinated Sunni Muslim ex-premier Rafik al-Hariri, Druze chief Walid Jumblatt and former Christian militia boss Samir Geagea.
Egypt and Saudi Arabia are working behind the scene to end the impasse, diplomats, political sources and analysts say.
They expect contacts with Syria before the Arab summit in Sudan at the end of March.—Reuters
