BANGKOK: Nobody really knows how the political crisis threatening Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra will play out. With the urban middle classes in revolt and Bangkok rife with rumours of a coup or royal intervention, many Thai academics and newspapers believe it’s only a matter of time before the billionaire tycoon is gone.
Yet others say Thaksin — who insists voters, not “mob rule”, will decide his fate in an April 2 snap election — can survive the clamour for his resignation over allegations of corruption and abuse of power.
“There is a lot of heated and emotional comment by people who want him gone, but I think he can tough it out,” said Chris Baker, who co-wrote a book about the Thai leader last year.
Thai stocks and the baht have wobbled since Thaksin’s relatives sold the business empire he founded for a tax-free $1.9 billion in late January and ignited the latest protests. But there has been no sustained sell-off.
Some nervous Thai investors are selling, but foreign punters have snapped up shares worth a net 96.3 billion baht ($2.5 billion) this year.
They appear to be betting Thaksin will outlast a campaign by the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD), which mobilized 60,000 protesters in Bangkok on Sunday, the biggest anti-government rally in 14 years with more to come.
“All the risks are being discounted in an extraordinarily positive way by the market, which is a very optimistic viewpoint given what could possibly go wrong,” said Mark Greenwood, assistant managing director of institutional sales at Finansa.
Thailand’s state planner cut its 2006 growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points on Monday, citing delays in infrastructure projects as Thaksin focusses his energy on survival.
It said tourism, stocks and foreign investment could be hurt if the crisis did not ease by mid-year, a warning echoed by economists and ratings agencies.
“If the political turmoil continues, we may need to revise growth rates in countries like Thailand,” James McCormack, head of Asia sovereigns at Fitch Ratings agency, said in Singapore.
The PAD marches, while peaceful so far, have drawn comparisons to past protests that ousted military governments, the last in 1992 when King Bhumibol Adulyadej intervened after scores of protesters were killed.
A group of senators and academics have petitioned the revered monarch to intervene again, but analysts say that is unlikely unless there is serious violence.
“This time it’s different,” said Baker. “Thaksin does have legitimacy through the parliamentary process and he has genuine popular support in the countryside.”
“But if violence did happen, it would rebound on him.”
Only a year ago, Thaksin, the only elected prime minister in Thai history to finish a full four-year term, looked unassailable after winning a second landslide election victory.
The 56-year-old former policeman had made good on a platform of cheap health care and handouts for the rural masses who are expected to return him to power in April.
But his popularity among urban, educated Thais has plunged over corruption scandals and allegations of cronyism and that he undermined institutions intended to check executive power.
Their simmering anger exploded last month with the sale of Shin Corp, the telecoms empire he founded, to a Singapore state company.
The deal outraged many taxpayers while the sale of assets, including satellites, to foreigners fuelled national security concerns.
In a bid to silence his opponents, Thaksin called a snap election to let the people decide. But a boycott by the political opposition, which insists the poll cannot be fair, has raised questions about the legitimacy of his expected victory in April.
“The Thai Rak Thai party is widely expected to return and form a new government. However, that doesn’t mean the end of political tension,” said Danny Suwanapruti of Standard Chartered Bank in Singapore.
The three main opposition parties have rejected Thaksin’s offer of political reforms if they contest the poll, saying he cannot be trusted.
“We are protesting a new form of dictatorship and authoritarianism,” said Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva.
The Democrats, Thailand’s oldest political party, have come under fire for effectively throwing in their lot with the protesters and allowing a drift towards a Philippines-style democracy.
But Abhisit and others say Thaksin is to blame for forcing Thais into the streets and for whatever happens next.
“Thaksin has become too powerful to be dealt with through constitutional means,” the Nation newspaper said. “When existing rules cannot provide
justice, people don’t bother respecting or preserving them.”—Reuters
