Central bank’s independence

Published January 23, 2006

Central banks are supposed to be independent of government influence in monetary policy formulation. Even influence is not desired leave alone intervention. That they are not so in many parts of the world is not a trend that must be replicated but a situation that must be remedied.

Our monetary policy should not be aiming at only and only inflation to gross neglect of concerns for growth. This is, however, to advocate that our monetary policy goals should be based on the requirements of the people of this country as the country’s economy and people should not be viewed as two distinct elements.

For, when our economic policy makers talk economic performance, it is the macroeconomic indicators they focus on more to the neglect of the microeconomic plight of the people that should be focused upon concurrently.

While an elaboration of this point would be a digression, suffice it to say that inflation impacts the microeconomic plight of the people that has been deteriorating, inter alia, due to rising price levels that the economic policy makers remain indifferent towards despite public outcry.

It is for this practical reason too that Pakistan needs a central bank that should be growing more independent by the day. An independent central bank would not just influence core inflation but also alert policy makers and people to other factors of rising food and energy prices that feed into inflation.

Pakistan’s march towards central bank’s independence started mid-1990s after which we did see SBP governors who tried to be independent and were perceived as such. When the central bank trades off growth and inflation, people are relatively comfortable for as long as the central bank is autonomous enough to exercise its judgment in this regard.

But, statements like, “In a high-level meeting,— Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz was reported to have asked the central bank to maintain a balance between growth and inflation” are indeed alarming.

Does a central bank not know that country-specific balance needs to be maintained between growth and inflation? If they do, why must the central bank be advised on this? Does this advice imply that a specific balance be maintained that the central bank is not free to choose? And, if a specific balance, as desired by the PM, is to be maintained; then people would be doubly alarmed. For, the people know that the PM is concerned more about growth than he is about inflation.

And, if the PM is to now also “provide policy guidelines” to the central bank, then people are keen to know if they are in for even higher inflation? And, if the “policy guidelines” are now considered normal by the central bank, then should the people conclude that the days of independent reporting and analysis of the central bank are behind them?

Notwithstanding their compliance with some of IMF’s requirements that may not have gone down well with people, there was a time in SBP’s recent history when they not only did manage to juggle between the rates of interest, inflation, and the value of the rupee but they also reported with candour the factors that were feeding into the various economic indicators in general and into inflation in particular.

SBP’s annual reports would be an awaited insightful document. Were these documents, however, well received in the economic policy corridors

It was reported shortly before the end of the term of Dr Ishrat Hussain as SBP’s governor that a few names had been suggested and preference would now be for the one who would “team up” with the country’s economic team.

“Teaming up” in our country more often than not means compliance to say the least. Disagreement, even if it is in the best interest of the overarching goals, is viewed as “team disruption.”

A good “team player” is considered to be the one who submits to groupthink and checks his brains at the door of the meeting place. This is a much distorted view of “teams” we have when what we actually have are mere groups and no teams in effect.

“Groups” graduate to “teams” after the members come to terms with each other and when they pursue agreed upon goals with shared values. If each team member is now inspired to pursue common goals, there will be less of conformity and more of disagreement and dissent. Research shows a high correlation between good performance and dissenting teams and boards. For, dissent means that creativity is encouraged and innovative ideas are generated that enable good performance and goal accomplishment.

In our dictatorial culture, unfortunately, a “good team player” is the one who scores high on conformity, expresses himself or herself less, and submits to groupthink whose tone is set by the big “boss” that is another pejorative term very popular with us.

So, while we must have real economic teams and not mere groups, there is no one big boss in the economic realm. There is a “boss” of the finance ministry and there is a “boss” of the central bank. And, the “boss” of the finance ministry is not the “boss” of the central bank that must chalk out its own direction while keeping an analytical watchful eye on the direction of the economy too.

So, when a highly qualified woman Dr Shamshad Akhtar, was appointed as the first woman Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan, we were only too pleased albeit cautiously in the light of that one criterion of “ability to cooperate” that was being talked about in the circles in the know.

For, a new trend in many underdeveloped societies is to present a face to the world that shows women in top slots, however weak or ineffective they may be in the slot they occupy. Same is the case with women parliamentarians and councillors as we are only too smug about their presence in the august bodies to notice their ineffectiveness in the seats they hold. Then, we like to say that women are empowered however powerless they may be in power positions.

Women power position holders, therefore, face more challenge than one of showing results. They have to act effectively to demonstrate that they are being wagged by none. Dr Shamshad Akhtar will need to dig beneath the surface of her pleasant appointment. Her qualifications notwithstanding, was her appointment also driven by the assumption that women are more pliable? This is a crucial question for Dr Akhtar to address and rule out especially in this situation when a “team playing” governor was being reportedly sought in a country where team play means conformity, compliance, and submission. For, it must not be said that the SBP’s independence to the extent it had gained it was eroded during the tenure of a woman governor.

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