KUALA LUMPUR: Asia’s biggest powers meet next week for a summit that could sow the seeds of a pan-Asian trading bloc — or just as easily end in a puff of hot air. These are the outcomes diplomats are pondering as they prepare for the inaugural East Asia summit, where countries representing about half the world’s population and a fifth of global trade will meet in the Malaysian capital on Dec. 14.
The summit brings the world’s two most populous nations, China and India, together with Asia’s largest economy, Japan, Southeast Asia, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand for a get-together whose outcome still seems a mystery to all of them.
“At this stage we do not know how it is going to evolve,” Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer told parliament in Canberra.
The Malaysian hosts insist the summit will not be a “talk shop”, but diplomats say words rather than action are likely to be the order of the day, at least for the first gathering. A free-trade area could take decades to achieve, if ever.
That leaves plenty of room now for leaders to try to steer the agenda, with Japan, Australia and India viewed as eager to turn the grouping into a “community” that could pursue deeper economic integration and potentially a giant free-trade area.
But it also leaves plenty of scope for disagreement.
China and most Southeast Asian nations are viewed as reluctant to create an Asian club on such a grand scale, fearing it would overshadow their existing annual get-togethers, organised by the Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean).
Since 1997, Asean nations and three of their biggest Asian trading partners, China, Japan and South Korea, have met each year. These talks, known as Asean+3, are among Asia’s top regional forums and increasingly dominated by the rising might of China. Asean+3 is already talking about its own free-trade area.
Asean states like Malaysia do not want their 38-year-old grouping to be suddenly enveloped by a larger club of giants, nor does Beijing want to share the driver’s seat with another economic rival like India, given it already has problems being alone in a room with Japan right now, diplomats said.
Given differing ambitions for the summit, and the fact East Asian leaders will sit together for just three hours, the result could be a bland statement, even by diplomatic standards.
“They may end up with something that’s so anodyne that it doesn’t appear to be anything at all,” a Western diplomat said.
While Asia’s odd bedfellows try to find some chemistry inside the summit, Russia will be outside, looking in. Russia has been a dialogue partner of Asean since 1996, but this year is different — President Vladimir Putin is turning up and no one doubts he wants a seat at East Asia’s new, larger table, diplomats said.
“This is the issue right now, whether we should bring in Russia,” another Southeast Asian diplomat said. “There’s no consensus in Asean right now.” Conspicuous by its absence at the summit will be the world’s only superpower, the United States. But Washington says it does not mind not being invited, in contrast to the guests who feel they cannot afford not to be there.
Some elements of Asean are a little alarmed at its success in convening an East Asia summit, diplomats said. Even Malaysia, which came up with the idea as a way of strengthening ties with the rest of Asia, is concerned the idea might run away from them.
“This summit is not intended in any way to overshadow or duplicate the workings of the Asean summit or other related summits but rather to complement the workings of Asean,” Malaysian Foreign Minister Syed Hamid Albar told reporters on Monday.
Japan, though, is expected to soothe Southeast Asians with a recommitment to its Asean ties and some aid. Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi plans to announce details of a package to help developing Asian countries fight the spread of bird flu.
But Koizumi is likely to get the cold shoulder from Chinese and South Korean leaders, both angry at his annual visits to a shrine honouring war criminals along with Japan’s war dead.—Reuters
