RIYADH, Nov 23: Saudi Arabia projects an average 4.6 per cent annual economic growth over the 2005-2009 period backed by an expected 1.56 per cent rise each year in the value of oil exports, the backbone of its economy.
The world’s top oil supplier expects the value of its crude exports to rise to 398.5 billion riyals ($106.3 billion) by 2009, up 8 per cent from 368.8 billion riyals in 2004, details of the 2005-2009 five-year economic plan showed.
Economic growth over the 2000-2004 plan was 3.44 per cent a year.
The projected total value of oil exports (in 2009) represents 34.9 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) against 39.7 per cent in 2004,” the economy and planning ministry said on its Web site.
The figures suggest Saudi Arabia, which plans to raise oil output capacity by 14 per cent to 12.5 million barrels per day by 200, is using conservative estimates to guard against any fall in crude oil prices.
Officials at the planning and economy ministry could not be reached for comment. The ministry published no projection for the price of oil over the five-year period covered by the plan.
Despite price fluctuations, oil receipts rose at an average annual pace of 17.5 per cent over the 2000-2004 period.
The average 4.6 per cent growth in the economy should hike GDP to 895.2 billion riyals by 2009, up 25 per cent from 715 billion riyals in 2004, the ministry said. The GDP figures were based on constant 1999 prices.
Plans for the longer term provide for a GDP of 1.189 trillion riyals in 2014 and 2.542 trillion riyals in 2024, also at 1999 prices.
The 2005-09 plan is based on inflation at an annual 0.6 per cent, against annual deflation of 0.6 per cent over the previous five years.
One of the main targets of this plan is to improve living standards of Saudis, said the ministry, which expects an 11 per cent rise in “GDP per Saudi capita”, which stood at 43,300 riyals in 2004.
Those figures do not take into account some 6 million foreign workers in the country which has a native population of 16 million.—Reuters
