KARACHI, Nov 13: While geophysicists and geologists continue to believe that occurrence of earthquake cannot be forecast, a senior professor in Electronics claims that study of related electromagnetic phenomena can enable one to predict earthquake.
The professor and former principal of Dawood College of Engineering and Technology, Dr Abdul Razzaque Memon, has viewed that earthquake is an electromagnetic phenomenon an analysis of which may provide the best solution in the tedious process of predicting an earthquake and, as such, loss of life property can be avoided.
Talking to Dawn here on Friday, the professor also hinted at a considerable threat of earthquake in the areas close to Karachi and Quetta in near future.
He said that seismologists had been expressing pessimism over being able ever to predict an earthquake, but he had a different view. Basing his views on the studies and experiences stretched over a period of seven years in Japan and later in the USA, he claimed that electromagnetic signals would go abnormal before the occurrence of an earthquake.
Dr Memon, who has done a Bachelor thesis on Electron Inertia Effects and a Masters thesis on Porous Tungsten Electrodes, lives in California and is, at present, on a visit to Karachi.
He has an anecdote to tell: “One day in 1969, I was working in my university laboratory in Tokyo to study low frequency signatures from the ionosphere. To my surprise, the signals were way up from the normal and this strange situation continued for the next few days. I didn’t understand the specific reason for this strange level of the signal which remained so pronounced for at least three days. I, therefore, discussed this phenomenon with my professor, Dr Masaki Hiroshima who viewed that it was the noise and may be due to solar wind or other type of the cosmic noise.
“But, I was not convinced and remained curious to find out the actual reason for this anomaly. Even the following day, the signatures just stayed up there way up from the normal level. Then in the evening next day, I saw on NHK TV channel in Tokyo and heard on radio too that the Japan was rocked by a 4.8 earthquake originating from a place about 120 miles north of Tokyo and there was a mention of resultant tsunami (huge oceanic wave).
“Later that evening, I worked late in the laboratory, up to midnight, and found out that the anomalous signal slowly went away. By the next day, everything was back to normal.
“Although this was strange by all standards of scientific explanation, this concrete observation clicked my mind that may be some supernatural force is trying to communicate to me about the arrival of an earthquake several days in advance. And after the quake, this especially pronounced signal of valuable information is completely withdrawn. I had studied more data and found more correlations between the signals and the ensuing earthquake during my research at the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia (1986-1989).”
Prof Memon claimed that on the basis of his findings, he had planned comprehensively a valuable project on earthquake prediction for Pakistan and submitted the same to the then University Grants Commission, now the Higher Education Commission, for funding. However, he added, no response whatsoever was received from the UGC in this regard.
Referring to the seismic models, he said that one could not have predictions in much advance about them because the moment the rumbling of the lumbering earthquake was heard, the earthquake reached the doorsteps the next moment.
“It does not give you enough time to do anything. You have a warning of very short time, seconds only, and the primary wave (P-wave) of earthquake, called the ‘fast wave’ travels eight kilometres per one second.” However, the professor insisted, a prediction several days or even weeks could be made but only with electromagnetic phenomenon.”
He explained that low-frequency electromagnetic signals were generated by the rocks coming under stress. This stress over the rock would give out the phenomenon of Piezoelectricity.
He elaborated that due to the seepage of water through the pores, fractures, and cracks of rocks, ionization would take place and, depending upon the ion land in the rocks, voltage variations would emerge and in this way, the entire fault-zone rock would act like a battery.
He noted that some dedicated partners in the USA, such as NASA, the Weather Channel, UC Berkeley, Purdue and Stanford, were collaborating with each other by sharing data and actively monitoring electromagnetic phenomena associated with earthquake-causing processes. “These efforts are in their infancy, but for the first time, they courageously indicated the solid fact I have been pleading for the last 15 years that electromagnetic disturbances may yield a promising path toward earthquake forecasting,” he said.
Discussing the tectonic plates and major fault lines, Dr Memon feared a considerable threat of earthquake in the areas close to Karachi and Quetta.
“In fact, the Indian subcontinent plate is moving northward at a rate of about 1.6 inch every year and colliding with the Eurasian continent plate causing active faults in northern Pakistan and adjacent parts of India and Afghanistan which will result in earthquakes in that area.
“All the three plates — Arabian plate, Indian plate and Eurasian plate — are all meeting at Karachi and, therefore, Karachi becomes more vulnerable because it is not only the Indian plate pushing north with vertical component at the rate of 1.6 inch every year but also the African plate which is pushing both the Arabian as well as Indian plate. All angular components of the push of these four plates can affect Karachi.
“The other set of three plates — African plate, Arabian plate and Indian plate — meet in the Arabian Sea and earthquake there will generate a huge tsunami that will affect all surrounding coastal areas in the region.
“The stress has been released only through the earthquake in Iran in February this year because the fault runs through the southern part of Iran. The fault runs certainly through Pakistan, from Karachi up to the north along the border of Sindh and Balochistan and goes further up to the north of Quetta and then curves into Punjab and up in the NWFP. It curves again into northern Punjab and Kashmir and near Muzaffarabad it then descends into India and runs in the base and footsteps of Himalayan range.
“The stress in northern part of Pakistan has been released recently through the earthquake but the stress over other parts close to Karachi and Quetta remains a considerable threat of earthquake in the near future.”
