LTTE boycott to help Lankan PM in presidential poll
By Frances Bulathsinghala
COLOMBO: Just a week before the keenly contested presidential poll, analysts say a possible boycott by Tamils at the Nov 17 election will tilt election balance towards UPFA candidate Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse. The LTTE has publicly announced that they were not interested in polls and university student groups in northern Jaffna were last week seen distributing leaflets requesting the north-eastern Tamils to refrain from voting.
Despite the Catholic Bishops in the LTTE dominated areas who wield influence over Tamil Christians issuing a public missive urging Tamils to vote, analysts say the voter turn out in the north-east will be poor following overall discouragement by the LTTE.
“The vote of the Tamil minority which makes 18 per cent of the population is with Wickremesinghe. A low voter turnout in the north-east as is now indicated will place Rajapakse in a winning position,” says Rohana Edirisinghe, political analyst of the Colombo based think-tank, Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA).
However, the LTTE had not openly announced a boycott of the elections. “It would be a disadvantage to the Tamil people if they don’t vote. It will only help chauvinistic forces,” bishop of eastern Mannar, Rt. Rev. Raiappu Joseph said.
However, as analysts point out, viewed in a different perspective, the LTTE who has lost sympathy with the international community following the Aug 12 assassination of Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar will benefit if victory goes to Mahinda Rajapakse who is backed by the Sinhala extremist JVP.
“It is clear how much influence the JVP has over Rajapakse by the fact that no amount of pressure by President Kumaratunga could persuade Mahinda Rajapkse’s manifesto to focus on a federal solution to the Tamil ethnic question. If the JVP continues on a pro-war footing, it will only help the LTTE gain international sympathy. It is clear that the LTTE’s immediate mission is to get the recently imposed EU travel ban lifted,” says Rohana Edirisinghe.
Meanwhile, away from central Colombo the rural vote seems to be a strongly poised towards Mahinda Rajapakse. Nimal Sirisena, a farmer in Matara, a heavily pro-Sinhala area, prophesizes a clear victory for Rajapakse.
“I do not want the country split into two. We will not give the Tigers their homeland,” says Sirisena who himself has never been to the north-east of the country.
Meanwhile, in comparison, with the Christian voter base Wickremesinghe leads. For 56-year-old Margerita Perera, a Christian residing in Moratuwa, a Colombo suburb, it is a religious matter which will prompt her to vote for Wickremesinghe.
“We fear that there might be a restriction on the freedom of religion if Rajapakse wins. We feel he will be influenced by his campaign partners, the JVP and the monk party, the JHU,” she said referring to the controversial anti-conversion bill that both the JVP and the JHU are keen on introducing in parliament.
In eastern Ampara, a predominantly Muslim area that has still not recovered from last December’s tsunami, Wickremesinghe reigns.
“Why has Rajapakse not allowed police to investigate allegations of fraud levelled against him,” asks Mohammad Hashim, a 29-year-old businessman. He is referring to prime minister’s recent move in which he sought the intervention of the Supreme Court to stop investigation into alleged fraud of millions of rupees collected through a fund for tsunami victims in the region of Hambantota.
Where accusations of bribery are concerned Wickremesinghe has come out the victor with a charge of misusing public funds being rejected by the Bribery Commission.
Meanwhile, in northern Jaffna many seem keen to cast their votes but were worried if that would earn them the wrath of the Tigers.
“The only law that prevails here is the law of the LTTE. We are waiting for them to give us a lead,” an academic in Jaffna said. Although Wickremesinghe comes out as pro-LTTE to the southern masses, the LTTE last week claimed that the two main contenders were ‘birds of a feather’. In an aspect where economics are concerned experts point out the manifesto of Mahinda Rajapakse addresses the issue better than Wickremesinghe.
“Our main problem is poverty and regional disparities of income. The manifesto of Mahinda Rajapakse addresses this problem, Prof. D. D. V. D. S. Indraratna retired professor of economics of the University of Colombo said.
“The UNP’s manifesto focuses on offering more consumer subsidies than production subsidies. This is not healthy for the economic prosperity of the country,” says Prof Indraratna. The UPFA Government on Tuesday presented what is described as a “highly populist” budget.
According to the Finance Minister, Dr. Amunugama, the budget presented for the year 2006 is a panacea to all economic ills of the country ranging from offering better prices for agricultural produce to the development of road infrastructure and substantial increase in salaries of those serving in public sector. However to the main Opposition the UNP, the presenting of the budget prior to elections was nothing but a strategy to lure voters.
“It is an election gimmick and that is why we boycotted the event” Chief Opposition Whip Mahinda Samarasinghe told the media after the UNP along with several minority parties including the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) boycotted the budget presentation on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, as brick bats are hurled between two presidential hopefuls both Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse and Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe on Tuesday agreed to a public debate.
