Peace process jolted by bombings, but remains intact
By Bryan Pearson
NEW DELHI: The peace process between India and Pakistan has been jolted by bombings in New Delhi which killed 62 people but reamins intact despite sharp comments by Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, analysts on both sides say.
However, Indian analysts warned that should a direct link be proved between Pakistan and Saturday’s bombings of two busy markets and a packed bus, the process which began in January last year would come under severe strain.
Singh has hinted at the possibility of Pakistani involvement in the blasts on the eve of the major Hindu festival of Diwali. His comments were released by the Foreign Office after he spoke to President Pervez Musharraf by telephone on Monday night.
“We continue to be disturbed and dismayed at indications of the external linkages of terrorist groups with the October 29 bombing,” Singh told Musharraf.
“India expects Pakistan to act against terrorism directed at India,” the Foreign Office quoted Singh as telling Musharraf.
It added: “The prime minister again drew the president’s attention to Pakistan’s commitment to ending cross-border terrorism.”
A man claiming to be the spokesman for the Islamic Revolutionary Group has claimed the blasts and said the attacks would continue as long as Indian troops remained in occupied Kashmir.
Police have said the group had links to Lashkar-i-Taiba, a pan-Islamic group which has been involved in a number of deadly attacks including in Kashmir, where an anti-Indian insurgency has been raging since 1989.
“If there is any direct connection (between Pakistan and the blasts) it will have serious implications,” said S.D. Muni, a specialist in South Asian affairs at Jawaharlal Nehru University.
“But if it is being done by groups (out of the control of the Pakistan establishment) trying to deliberately spoil the peace process, the impact won’t be that severe.”
While the peace process was moving slowly, there were “very positive signs”, Muni told AFP. These included the relaunch of a trans-Kashmir bus service in April, a decision last month to launch other cross-border bus and train services and most recently, a decision to open the heavily militarised de facto border at five points for earthquake relief.
The agreement on opening the Line of Control that splits Kashmir came just hours after Saturday’s blasts. Media reports in India quoting government sources said New Delhi had assessed the implications of the blasts before giving the go-ahead.
Kamal Matinuddin, a former Pakistani ambassador and now a regional analyst, said the attacks would not signficantly harm the peace process because India and Pakistan were remaining calm.
“The tone of the Indian government’s reaction is far from being aggressive and there is an element of sobriety,” Matinuddin told AFP in Islamabad.
“It’s naturally annoying for India and it is up to Pakistan to play cautiously and tackle the situation diplomatically instead of giving a tit-for-tat response to New Delhi.”
Matinuddin said India’s current tone was far calmer than after the December 2001 militant attack on the Indian parliament, which it blamed on Pakistan.
That brought the two countries to the brink of war, massing around a million troops on their border until the situation was defused in mid-2002.
Matinuddin said the peace process may be affected “only to the extent that possible accords on Siachen or Sir Creek (two minor territorial disputes) could be delayed a little, but I don’t think new pressures would emerge to harm the mutual confidence-building process.”
Retired Lieutenant General Talat Masood, a Pakistani defence and political analyst, blamed the attacks on militants intent on harming improving relations.
“Some Kashmiri militant groups have become a nuisance for Pakistan,” Masood said in Islamabad.
“Their policy is independent of Pakistan’s stated foreign policy and at time at variance with Pakistan’s policy. If they are doing it they are going crazy, they are destroying the image of Pakistan.”
Brahma Chellaney, of New Delhi’s Centre for Policy Research, said that for a while New Delhi would be more focused on hunting down the bombers than on pursuing the peace process.
“Any government would give more priority to tracking down those behind the bombings,” said Chellaney. “The (Indian) government has a major challenge on its hands.”—AFP
