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| October 24, 2005 | Monday | Ramzan 19, 1426 |
Met office rules out big follow-up quake
ISLAMABAD, Oct 23: More aftershocks are possible for another two to three weeks, but a major earthquake hitting Islamabad or some other parts of the country or the region is unlikely, said the Meteorological Office.
“The magnitude of some of such aftershocks may range between 5-6 on Richter scale, but this is absolutely a normal pattern because all major earthquakes are followed by aftershock activity”, Director General Met Office Qamaruz Zaman Chaudhry told a press briefing here Sunday.
He said a positive aspect of these aftershocks is that they help in decreasing the energy build-up in earthquake affected areas and reduce chances of another major earthquake in the same region. He pointed out that frequency of aftershocks is on decrease.
Commenting on predictions of some major earthquake hitting Islamabad or Karachi on a specific date and time, he said such rumours keep on spreading off and on in different cities. He said there is no technology or instrument available in the world which can predict earthquakes with specific date, time and place. He asked people not to pay heed to such rumours.
The Met Office chief said the present pattern of aftershocks and historical seismic record suggest that never in the seismic history a major earthquake was followed by another major earthquake in the same region. He said it takes decades or even centuries to build up that much amount of energy which can cause a major earthquake.
Answering a question, he rejected a rumour that epicentres of the aftershocks are shifting to Islamabad. “This is absolutely incorrect because most of the aftershocks are concentrated in an areas 30 to 40 Km further North West of Muzaffarabad and about 100 km from Islamabad. This means that the centre of the earthquake has shifted further away from Islamabad.
He said out of around 900 aftershocks so far recorded, the centre of only one minor earthquake of magnitude 3.4 was close to Islamabad.
Mr Chaudhry also brushed aside the impression that Islamabad has been placed in the most hazardous seismic zone. He said seismic zoning will be re-defined once the present aftershocks are over. “As such comment on the seismic zoning of Islamabad at this stage is premature”, he added. About Muzaffarabad, he said it falls in high hazardous seismic zone.
He said 25 aftershocks have been recorded during the last 24 hours with two of them in Mansehra being significant.
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