| October 1, 2005 | Saturday | Sha'aban 26, 1426 |
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Last-minute hitch
Well done in Tehran
Post-election prospects in Afghanistan
AS early results trickle in from the Afghan legislative elections, President Karzai’s principal political foe Yunus Qanuni — heading a 14-party alliance which is generally described as a rainbow grouping — and his party colleague Mohammad Mohaqiq are way ahead of their rivals in Kabul. Noted jihadi commander Abdul Rab Rasul Sayyaf of Da’awat-i-Islami, whose candidacy has come in for flak from human rights groups, has also taken unassailable lead over his opponents in the central capital.
TWO reports in Friday’s newspapers are of significance in the context of the energy sector in Pakistan. First, there was the announcement by the president that the government had strategized the country’s energy requirements for the next 15 years and it was working to reduce the country’s dependence on oil for power generation. Second, a press release stated that the prime minister had set up a seven-member cabinet committee on energy. This body will prescribe policies for the development of indigenous sources of energy. It is encouraging that the government has begun addressing the issue seriously because Pakistan’s dependence on imported oil at a time when the international oil market is volatile will have a negative impact on the growth of the national economy. A strategy to develop indigenous sources of energy should pay dividends in terms of lower costs and reliability of supply. It should also allow greater flexibility in the government’s energy policy.
At present, 50 per cent of the country’s primary energy supplies come from gas, 30 per cent from oil, 12 per cent from hydroelectricity and six per cent from coal. The remainder comes from nuclear energy and LPG. This pattern is not a very sound one from the long-term point of view. Although dependence on oil has been reduced over the years, it still remains a big source of energy. Besides, the burden has shifted to gas which now has come under excessive pressure. Gas is locally available, but it is not a renewable source and the country’s gas reserves at 42 trillion cubic feet are expected to run out in another 27 years. The problem with this pattern of energy sourcing is that it points to the failure of the government to tap its sizeable coal reserves. Of the proven reserves of 185 billion tons only five million tons is being extracted annually. Experts say that the potential exists to generate 101,800 megawatts of electricity from coal.
Another area where some work has started but where not enough progress has been made is that of alternative energy sources. An alternative energy development board was set up in 2003 with a focus on wind and solar energy. There is plenty of scope for both in Pakistan but the work there so far remains on a small and experimental scale. Wind energy is being used to supply limited power to remote coastal areas of Sindh and Balochistan. Sunlight is also being tapped as a source of energy, but the efforts in this area are limited. With an abundance of sunshine available, it is important that projects to generate electricity from this source be undertaken on a wide scale. Yet another area in which other countries have successfully launched projects is of bio-fuel. China, Brazil and Germany are using molasses and corn to produce electricity. Pakistan has made a beginning by using the ‘sukh chayn’ tree to produce fuel which the railways have said it can use for its engines. Saplings of this plant are being planted in the Margalla hills. And why have molasses been left out of the programme? It is important to realize that an ad hoc approach will not work in energy generation. The energy policy which is said to be on the anvil will hopefully take into account the various potential sources which remain untapped and underutilized.
UNLESS there is a last-minute breakthrough, talks on Turkey’s membership of the European Union are unlikely to begin on Monday. As Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul said, his plane was ready to fly to Brussels, but he would not leave until he was sure that all hurdles had been cleared. Last December, the EU summit finally agreed to begin entry negotiations with Ankara, but two recent developments have created new obstacles in the way. First, on Wednesday, the European parliament asked Turkey to recognize Greek Cyprus and acknowledge that the Ottoman empire had committed “genocide” of the Armenian people during World War I. Second, Austria has taken a tough stand not shared by other EU members. Vienna is opposed to Ankara’s full membership, insisting that instead it be given a “privileged partnership” — it also wants entry negotiations to begin with its neighbour Croatia. The question of recognizing Greek Cyprus has always been a major problem between Turkey and the EU.
But by adding the so-called genocide issue to the conditions, the European parliament has made things difficult for Turkey. Other new conditions include Ankara giving up opposition to any EU state joining an international organization. This will have obvious effect on Turkey’s reservations over Greek Cyprus becoming a Nato member. The EU also wants Turkey to open its harbours and airports to Greek Cyprus. In addition, the prosecution of dissident Turkish writer Orhan Pamuk has been given too much publicity in Europe and cited as an example of Ankara’s slow progress on judicial reforms.
The crisis looks grim because Ankara has rejected anything other than full membership. Those opposing Turkey’s membership should ask themselves whether they want the EU to remain an exclusive Christian club. As a country whose politics is anchored in secularism, Turkey could serve as a bridge between Europe and the Middle East. It has no extremists in government or the opposition, and the fact that the ruling party itself is an Islamic party shows Turkey’s moderate image. As British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said, Turkey in Europe will mean a Muslim majority country serving as “a shining example across the whole of its neighbourhood”. It would mean “a huge betrayal of the hopes of the Turkish people”, he said, if Europe turned its back on Turkey.
THE Pakistan contingent which took part in the 4th Islamic Women’s Games in Tehran needs to be congratulated. The 73 competitors managed to win 16 medals, including five gold medals. One of the gold medals was for the shot put field event, the first time since the 1999 SAF games that a female Pakistani athlete has won such a laurel at an international meet. Particularly outstanding were the swimmers, including the youngest ever Olympian, Rubab Raza (she represented her country at the 2004 games in Athens). The Pakistani competitors managed to hold their own beating rivals from countries like Malaysia, Indonesia, Morocco, Algeria and the Central Asian states where facilities for training and coaching are far better.
Apart from cricket, not much attention is paid to other sports in Pakistan in terms of funding or better training and coaching facilities. In fact, when it comes to sports for women, the general level of participation in the country is very low, and this has to do with the conservative and patriarchal complexion of Pakistani society which tends to frown on women pursuing sporting activities. Take the case of the NWFP where the government has placed a ban on female athletes being coached by men or the attack and the big brouhaha over the so-called ‘mixed marathons’ earlier this year. In one instance, the Punjab government went out of its way to appease the religious bigots on this issue by ordering that one such race be held within the premises of a college, thus defeating the purpose of holding a long-distance race. With this commendable performance in Tehran, however, Pakistani girls and young women eager to take part in competitive sport at least have some role models to look up to.
In the Taliban spiritual base of Kandahar, the president’s brother Qayyum Karzai, ex-commander Haji Amir Lalai, former gubernatorial spokesman Khaled Pashtun and communist leader Noorul Haq Uloomi are happily placed against their competitors. Outspoken woman activist Malalai Joya, known for her vehement denunciation of jihadi forces and warlords, is in a sound position in the western Farah province, where Mohammad Naeem Farahi, Obaidullah Hilali and Jamila Faiz are also doing well.
Syed Mohammad Gulabzoi, former interior minister in the last communist government led by Dr Najibullah, Maulvi Hanif, Bismillah Mangal, Liaqatullah Babkarkhel and Amir Sabri are in the lead in the southeastern Khost province while former Hizb-i-Islami commander Eng. Qarar, Said Rehman and Professor Ismail Yun are poised to win their seats in Laghman. In the eastern Nangarhar province, Hazrat Ali is apparently set to pull off an emphatic victory.
Among the 5,770 hopefuls, political heavyweights like Prof. Burhanuddin Rabbani, Wakil Ahmad Mutawakil, Mullah Khaksar, Mullah Rocketi and Eng. Ahmad Shah Ahmadzai have bright chances of staging a political comeback. Humayun Jarir (Gulbadin Hekmatyar’s son-in-law), Ramzan Bashar Dost, Mustafa Kazmi, Kazi Amin Waqaad, Mirwais Yasini, Ustad Akbari, Syed Mohammad Ali Javed, Alami Balkhi, Bashir Qanit, Asadullah Walwalji and Dr. Fazl Mohammad Ibrahimi too are seen as potential winners - though for different reasons.
Educated and enterprising women like Safia Siddiqui, Shukriya Barakzai, Malalai Shinwari, Surraya Parlika, Balqis Makez, Shinkai Karokhel and Maghfirat Samimi brought a bit of extra zip and spice to the electoral fray. Given their personal charisma, family background and support from powerful lobbies, many of them are set to win their seats and bring a badly-needed gender balance to the new parliament.
On the initial showing, warlords, drug barons and gangsters are unlikely to be politically marginalized in the wake of the elections to the 249-seat Wolesi Jirga (lower house) and 34 provincial councils. With the vote count gaining momentum, many of the influential men are well poised to force their way to the legislature whose precise shape cannot be defined at this point in time.
Giving the Bush and Karzai administrations some cause for jubilation, some six million Afghans, undeterred by threats of attacks from militants, streamed to polling stations across the strife-torn country on September 18 to vote in the first parliamentary elections in 36 years the official results of which are expected on Oct. 22. But psephologists of all stripes argue the same old political actors, who thrived on decades of conflict and anarchy, will once again make it to parliament to play ducks and drakes with the pauperized Central Asian country’s lamentably limited resources.
Before the new parliament, they say, there will be a whole host of formidable challenges like accelerating the snail-paced distribution of reconstruction funds to the provinces, meeting expectations of rebuilding the war-crippled social sector, strengthening security, institutionalizing a credible accountability mechanism, ensuring economic development, promoting good governance and civic education and giving the disillusioned nation greater say in national affairs. If the so-called gunmen really end up in the august forums against popular aspirations, analysts fear, the benighted land will go back to square one.
With the counting process picking up steam, a high incidence of invalid votes cannot be ruled out in that most voters were illiterate and unfamiliar with political elections contested by thousands. Names, registration numbers and symbols of disqualified candidates on ballot papers compounded voter confusion. Many women and old men groped for contestant names they desired to vote for, but ended up fumbling with the long ballot papers.
A large number of candidates, meanwhile, have cast doubt on the transparency of the entire electoral process marking the culmination of the historic Bonn Agreement. They have their reservations about the election law per se, the much-maligned vetting procedure, glaring anomalies witnessed on polling day and a slapdash approach to transportation of ballot boxes to vote-counting centres.
In the western Herat province, scores of disgruntled aspirants and their polling agents, alleging foul play in the vote-counting exercise at the regional centres, issued a fact sheet highlighting the irregularities. No less than 40 hopefuls signed the documents that lambasted Joint Electoral Management Body (JEMB) officials for “rank favouritism and brazen attempts at doctoring the election results.”
By the same token, 20 candidates from the southern Kandahar province have also voiced grave concern at “massive poll rigging including ballot stuffing outside polling booths, participation of minors in voting and men using women voter cards.”
Running for a Wolesi Jirga seat, a candidate claimed many ballot boxes were crammed with votes across the border in Chaghai area of Balochistan before they were shifted to polling stations in Afghan territory. He wondered why the ballot boxes were brought in from Pakistan, where millions of Afghan refugees were divested of their right to vote in the elections. In last year’s presidential race, displaced people in Pakistan and Iran had been allowed to exercise universal suffrage in the face of heavy odds.
For a full day, the vote-counting process had to be on hold in Takhar and Badghis provinces following a spate of complaints and protest demonstrations from candidates’ polling agents, who blasted election staff for faking thumb impression of voters in a bid to make sure that “certain people” romped home in the elections. Pir Mohammad Khaksar and Mamoor Afghan, respectively in the run for parliament and provincial council berths from Takhar, were irked by “attempts at shifting of the goal-posts by officials assigned with implementation of the election law.”
As angry candidates and JEMB representatives traded barbs in the northern Badghis province, vote count had to be suspended for a day. The contenders insisted the relevant law provided for the presence of all polling agents while the votes were counted but officials interpreted the rule differently. Political activists and polling agents, taking issue with the electoral staff’s construal of the law, staged a noisy protest that halted the vote count.
Mohammad Azim, deputy chief of the Naveen Party headed by Yunus Qanuni, says the counting process is marred by serious flaws, and that the delivery of ballot boxes to these centres in the absence of observers has raised many eyebrows. On the other hand, Qanuni’s opponents allege presiding officers openly told people to vote for the former interior minister.
One big flipside to the otherwise encouraging event was that tens of thousands of women in the deeply conservative Zabul, Nangarhar, Khost, Paktia and Paktika provinces were barred from voting. The disenfranchisement of the other half was attributed to JEMB’s failure to set up separate polling centres for women, restrictions from deeply conservative men and attempts at rigging. In the insurgency-plagued Helmand, only one of the 13 districts had a single polling centre for women. But voter turnout was low even at the solitary centre in the Greshk district.
Elsewhere too men did not let women vote at polling centres for males. Garam Ser resident Abdul Ghafoor was at a loss how to justify the restrictions placed on women in the 12 districts. But Eng. Abdul Hadi, in charge of JEMB in Helmand, argued there was no need for establishing separate polling stations in the one dozen districts, where there were no registered women voters. Female voters, nonetheless, were dismissive of the claim, alleging the poll panel had failed to pay adequate attention to the registration of women voters and their participation in the elections.
According to Free Election Foundation of Afghanistan (FEFA) spokesman Ahmad Nader Naderi, voters were reportedly coerced by officials and contenders in Logar, Helmand and Baghlan. He has also received reports of women being stopped from voting in Helmand, Khost, Paktika and Paktia provinces.
Overall, the Afghans demonstrated unprecedented enthusiasm about participation in the elections marking the second phase of Afghanistan’s not-so-smooth transition towards democracy. “This election will prove to be a turning point in efforts to put the country on the road to peace and stability, which is an absolute imperative for economic development,” remarks 38-year-old Saeed Kazmi.
The Afghan government and its international backers deserve full marks for conducting the elections that saw a 53 per cent voter turnout and no major attacks from militants. But the twin menace of terrorism and drugs in Afghanistan is still far from controlled, much less eliminated. On both fronts, they will have to fight resolutely for a long time to bring about a measure of stability to the country.